The U.S. still needs Middle East oil. America must remain involved in the region for this reason. And there are other reasons too. Pro-western states that favor the status quo, like Israel and the Sunni world of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, all need America's security umbrella. These states fear the growing expansion of Iran's Shiism. They struggle at home to maintain stability and repel forces of radicalism and Islamism. They feel threatened by Iran's belligerency.

Iran is heading toward -- and it seems unstoppable -- acquiring nuclear weapons. Talk in the Middle East is about the "Shiite Crescent" (some refer to it as the "Shiite Banana"). Iran is trying to to create a geographically connected zone extending from Iran to its Shiite allies in Iraq -- and via the pro-Iranian regime in Syria, controlled by the Alwaites (which is a minority and ruling Asad family is part of it) - all the way to Lebanon.

Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah are both threats to the existence of Israel, but above all they are perceived as threats to Arab Sunnites. No wonder Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan wanted Israel to prevail against Hezbollah. Tensions will likely only increase between the Shiites led by Iran and by the Sunnites led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

A new alliance to stop Iranian hegemony is already in the making. In individual countries, violent struggles for power could or already have emerged in Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon and of course Iraq. America will withdraw from Iraq sooner or later and when it does, Iraq will most probably be divided into three mini-states -- Shiite, Sunnite and a Kurdish. The U.S., along with Europe and Russia will be there to exercise their influence.

The Middle East is facing harsh times. But it is too large and too ethnically and religiously diversified to allow one local force, Iran, to dominate.

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