William M. Gumede at PostGlobal

William M. Gumede

South Africa

William M. Gumede is Associate Editor at Africa Confidential. He is Research Fellow at the School of Public and Development Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. He recently released the bestselling book Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC. Close.

William M. Gumede

South Africa

William M. Gumede is Associate Editor at Africa Confidential. more »

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U.S. Reaches its Global Limits

Johannesburg, South Africa - The Iraq Study Group laid bare the limits of U.S. firepower in the Middle East. Its prognosis of U.S. impotence in Iraq also points to the waning influence of U.S. power across the globe as well.

The Iraq Study Group made an important political point -- the U.S. now reaps the bitter fruit of a unilateral foreign policy. As the U.S. loses influence, anti-Americanism rises, articulated by increasingly prestigious enemies.

This loss of U.S. power is likely to have a domino effect across the world. In Sudan, the Khartoum regime has hardened its resolve to block United Nations peacekeepers. Khartoum knows that the United States' reach has been sufficiently shortened.

In many countries, America is now been portrayed as a bogeyman. For political parties, association with the U.S. spells electoral loss. This ought to serve as a warning to the U.S. to tread carefully in Cuba when Fidel Castro's poor health ends his long reign. If the U.S. pushes its own approved leaders there, it could face an electoral backlash or Cuba could plunge into an internecine conflict pitting U.S.-backed groups against anti-U.S. ones.

While the U.S. has charged ahead with its one-dimensional foreign policy forcing democracy from outside, the tenor of the globe has changed fast. This change may be irrevocable. Developing countries like China and India have emerged as alternative powers for other nations to latch on to. As U.S. global influence decreases, there has been a parallel rise of new and influential regional powers and the consolidation of existing powerhouses.

Among these new powers has been a rise of governments manifestly anti-American. These countries draw on past and/or current U.S. efforts to intervene in their internal politics. Indeed, such interventions often had and have disastrous consequences. Look from Venezuela to Iran.

China has been very careful to not follow America's foreign policy route. It has been going out of its way to partner locals wherever it goes. Once the U.S. administration accepts the thesis that it has reached its limits as the sole policeman of the Middle East, even the Palestinian-Israel conflict will have to be resolved by bringing Middle Eastern neighbors into the equation.

Ironically, Washington had worked hard to stymie any attempt to have a Shia-controlled Iraqi government lest such a government reaches out too eagerly to Tehran. America adopted divide-and-rule tactics, trying to play one side against the other, and worked hard to cause divisions in the Shia alliance that got the most votes in 2005.

Perhaps the only solution now is to use the offices of the United Nations to invite Iraq's neighbors -- as well as countries outside the region -- to help out in Iraq. Regional neighbors such as Syria and Iran must use their political influence to persuade the insurgents in Iraq to lay-off, and to give political support to the wobbly Iraq government. However, it will also means Syria and Iran should send peace troops to augment U.S. troops. Although there is no iron-clad guarantee that Iran and Syria will cooperate with the U.S. on Iraq, it will not be in the interest of either Syria or Iran to have Iraq implode further, spreading violence to their countries. They can't afford to act unilaterally either.

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