Johannesburg, South Africa - At this stage United Nations sanctions against Iran would be an ineffective strategy. Without first talking with the regime, imposing sanctions would only strengthen the hand of Iran hardliners.
Behind's Iran's request for a "new formula" lies both an attempt to buy more time and a channel through which to temporarily suspend the country's uranium enrichment program.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, has already voiced the views of the hard-line camp on Monday when he said the country would continue "on the nuclear path". Some, like Khomeini, said that the West's claims that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons are a pretext for its opposition to the development of Islamic countries.
Iran's regime has couched their rejection of the UN's incentive package in very conciliatory tones, saying "Iran is prepared to hold serious talks". This is not only an attempt to play off those in the UN Security Council critical of U.S. foreign policy, but also aimed at securing broader sympathy across the globe.
Right now, the U.S.' perceived support of Israel's offensive in Lebanon has hardened views, even of many moderates, in Muslim countries. The atmosphere in the region is a tender box. However, sentiments against the U.S. response to the Israeli action have also hardened outside the Middle East. Surely, the Iran regime is acutely aware of this, and calculates that there is going to be global opposition to a U.S. invasion, and possibly even some sympathy for Iran if it happens.
By not at least leaving the door for further negotiations, the U.S. will fall into the trap set by the Iranian regime. From a strategic point, it won't be in the U.S. interest to act tough, given the volatile situation. This would only undermine its war on terror.
Iran's foreign minister Manuchehr Motakki visited South Africa on Monday, where he met with President Thabo Mbeki. From his statements in Pretoria, it appears the regime in Iran is not entirely closed to further negotiations. The UN must capitalize on this before imposing sanctions.
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