Johannesburg, South Africa -- A prisoner swap between Israel and Palestine is now an integral part of any solution to the current escalating crisis in the Middle East. If necessary, all the parties must agree to a neutral mediator to facilitate the swap. Any further strikes by Israel are likely only to raise further tensions and unleash yet more reprisals from those in Palestine and in the surrounding areas.
The current Israeli military strikes are already disproportionate to any acts of aggression against it. Furthermore, collective bombardments like these are illegal under Geneva conventions.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's statement to his Cabinet that "the release of prisoners means destroying the moderates in the Palestinian Authority, and would signal to the world that Israel can only talk to extremists," cannot be more misplaced. Neither is it likely to force Palestinian "militants to scale back their demands". In fact, further Israel attacks will only lead to a hardening of Palestinian attitudes. From a purely self-interested point of view, a hardline stance by the Israeli government can only further imperil the lives of the Israel hostages and ordinary Israelis. Indeed, it can only lead to Palestinians demanding appropriately tougher reprisals from their leaders, which will spark further cycles of tit-for-tat attacks. Furthermore, Mr. Olmert cannot honestly argue that brute force or a demonstration of Israeli's awesome power has brought peaceful results in the past? Surely, it has only triggered further resentment from those on the receiving end of that power? This is certainly not a time to show might, steel or muscle; it is a time to be pragmatic.
The US has by far the strongest leverage on Israel and the world is watching how the US reacts. Many are already skeptical of whether the US can indeed be an impartial broker in the Middle East. Instead of blaming the Palestinians or shady machinations by Iran, the US will have to put pressure on Israel to stop the bombings, start a prisoner swap and go back to the negotiations table. Such an action won't be weak, nor will it strengthen the hands of the US enemies. It will be pragmatic. This is most probably the only way the US is going to claw back some sort of credibility in the Middle East. A failure by the US to appear to act even-handedly in this widening explosion is likely to harden attitudes most immediately in places such as Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Perhaps, it is time for the rest of the world to consider implementing sanctions against Israel. Again, such a step should not be interpreted as anti-Israel, or pro-Palestine. The US, and the rest of the world, has a duty to step in, to prevent a dramatic explosion in the Middle East that is bound to follow this Israeli attack. In so doing, it will save Israel, the Palestinians, and the world from a potentially spiraling crisis with impact bound to be felt far beyond the Middle East.
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