Beijing, China -- Israeli former president Ariel Sharon and his successor, Mr. Ehud Olmert, based their detachment policy on a key presumption: that peace could be made by abolishing any involvement with the Palestinians. The kidnapping episode days ago and the increasing conflict that followed testifies that this is a fantasy. You cannot simply go home. The problem you leave behind will come back to haunt you.
History has repeatedly proven that a mediator between Palestinian and Israelis cannot deliver significantly positive achievements, if anything at all. Many able and experienced diplomats have failed. So do not count too much on a mediator this time. The following scenario, which makes sense, is only theoretically possible.
The current mess is a stratification of layers and layers of attack and revenge at larger and larger scale. Yes, damages have been done. Lives have been lost. However, for leaders of both sides, this process is not irreversible. The key issue cannot be more obvious: The Israeli and the U.S. governments have decided to starve the Hamas-led Palestinian government ever since its surprising parliamentary win, hoping to force that government to collapse. Being cornered, Harmas has few alternatives left. It is only too natural that it has resorted to violence, which they understand most.
I have no opinioni here on whether the policy of starving the Palestinian government is wise or stupid. However, a mediator has to realize that unless he can persuade the Israeli and U.S. governments to rethink their policy, all else he may try to do is futile, and doomed.
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