When Vladimir Putin made his hard-line speech at the February 10 Munich conference on security, the Turkish public got truly excited. Many saw in the speech the makings of a new Cold War, and this time around instead of fearing a rising Russia the sentiment was favorable towards Moscow – as a counterbalance to an arrogant, abrasive and in fact aggressive United States. In an unprecedented move, the Turkish general staff's website posted a Turkish translation of the speech.
Given what they perceive to be the arrogance of the West, not to mention its double standards, many Turks side with Russia in its quarrels with the West. Although Turkey is a NATO country, it shares at least one stance with Russia: not to allow NATO exercises in the Black Sea if they are seen to violate the Montreux Convention, which regulates passage through the Turkish straits. Many Turks believe that the West treats Russia unfairly, and that Russia’s assertiveness results from provocation. Sympathy rests mostly on the side of the Russians. In fact, as a status quo power, Turkey was distinctly unhappy with the recent colored revolutions in its vicinity.
This is somewhat curious because most Turks sympathize with – and some actively support – Chechen separatists against Moscow's dominance. Many Turks resent the fact that Russia sides with the Greek South in the Cyprus conflict. And most Turks are uncomfortable with Turkey's overdependence on Russian gas.
The infatuation with Russia has been gaining steam for some time. Turkey's trade relations with Russia are excellent. Many Turkish firms invest in Russia, and Russians constitute one of the larger groups of tourists coming into Turkey. As the feeling grows that Turkey is being snubbed and shortchanged by its Western allies, Russia's star is rising both among the elites and in public opinion. Then-secretary general of the National Security Council General Tuncer Kilinc first articulated the possibility of Turkey giving up on the EU and moving toward Iran and Russia – without turning its back on the U.S. – back in March of 2002. Since then, an idea that was once seen as fantasy has acquired legitimacy and today resonates with the public. There is also a strong and well connected pro-Russia lobby in Turkey that includes business and media personalities.
Turkey is the most important alternate route for energy transportation from the Caspian and elsewhere to Europe. The U.S. does not want the Russians to hold any stake in these pipelines, but the Turkish government has so far kept its options open.
While many in the West wonder if Turkey is being lost to Islamists or to the Middle East, they would be better advised to take a closer look at Turkey-Russia relations. The Russians are doing everything they can to cultivate those relations, primarily through the novel tactic of treating the Turks with dignity.
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