Seoul, South Korea -- What Palestinian state can we expect now that Hamas and Fatah have gone their separate ways? Gaza under Hamas and the West Bank under Fatah will lead to two separate governments, as Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh vows not to recognize the legitimacy of President Mahmoud Abbas's new cabinet. As gun battles and wars of words escalate between the two sides, the people of Gaza are likely to get out in massive numbers, creating a renewed refugee flow -- this time from internal civil war.
The United States and Europe resuming economic aid to the Fatah government will quicken this flow, sucking more people from Hamas’s camp who are desperate for relief; it will not be the other way for Gaza: no people choose to starve to death by staying with a political regime facing total isolation. The fact that people will be voting with their feet this time will throw a serious challenge at the Hamas leadership presiding over the territory with a diminishing number of people under its control. Trying to keep people from deserting Gaza (with Israel assisting their escape) will only undermine Hamas’s political legitimacy.
It is now time for Jordan, Egypt and Syria to more actively engage Hamas, to urge restraint upon the extremists. Preoccupied with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tensions with Iran, the U.S. and Europe are unlikely to soften their demands that Hamas come to terms with Fatah. Hamas has taken over Gaza, but at the cost of betraying its commitment to a united Palestine. It's a pyrrhic victory. At the end of the day, their only way out is dialogue, not more gun battles, because Hamas too cannot go on controlling Gaza without paying fealty to the cause of a Palestinian state representing all parties, moderates included.
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