Seoul, South Korea -- Iran's decision to release the 15 captured British sailors and marines is as puzzling as the question of how and why they were captured in the first place. We will know what really happened now, as they return home, but it won't be the most important part of the story.
The main point today is that Iran has fallen under the control of an increasingly erratic leadership that needs more and more such "incidents" to keep its revolutionary fervor going in the face of protracted sanctions that are beginning to affect the lives of ordinary Iranians. By capturing these Britons, Ahmadinejad told the world he can't be messed around by big powers like the UK. He would especially like this point to sink in with Europe, which bickers constantly with the U.S. over how to respond to Iran's apparent pursuit of a nuclear weapons program.
Why did Ahmadinejad suddenly change course and release his captives? The answer is that he doesn't need a new confrontation with the UK to worsen the political tension and economic hardships at home. But following this about-face, ordinary Iranians should wonder what all the fuss was about. This could sow the seeds of dissension at home among moderates who question the value of such adventure.
Once again, Iran's behavior reminds us how closely it imitates its friend North Korea in taking such a risky course of adventurism. In January 1968, North Korea’s navy seized the USS Pueblo, an intelligence vessel that had been observing the country from outside its territorial waters. Its crew members were released only after signing a "confession" that they had violated the North's territorial waters, but not until after nine months' detention. The release came only when U.S. fighter jets arrived in South Korea, preparing to bomb Pyongyang. But the North kept the Pueblo and she still sits on the banks of the Taedong River in Pyongyang four decades later, as a shining piece of propaganda.
For at least two weeks, Ahmadinejad used the British captives a rallying point for the Iranian people to stand behind his crisis-breeding regime, helping them to forget their worsening economic conditions. But what now? Iranians should wonder what all this has achieved for them. That's what North Koreans are thinking about today when they see the Pueblo sitting forlornly on the Taedong River.
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