Seoul, South Korea - North Korea is returning to the six-party talks for the simple reason that it is running out of any more cards with which to intimidate the United States. After firing the missiles in July and conducting an underground nuclear test in October, all in a show of defiance, what more cards does it have to threaten the international community with? As a last resort, It can stage some hostile provocations along the misnamed Demilitarized Zone but only at its own peril, given the fact that it faces the combined forces of the U.S. and South Korean troops that stand prepared against precisely such provocations.
Another reason is the impact of the U.S. financial sanctions. The freezing of North Korea's bank accounts holding money it earned through exports of missiles to the Middle East and drugs has acutely embarrassed Kim Jong Il. Some of the US$45 million frozen at the Macau-based Banco Delta Asia had been used by Kim to bribe military leaders with Mercedez Benz and Rolex watches. The hard currency shortage in the North has recently turned so acute that Pyongyang has been unable to pay for energy and food imports from China, as a result of which China briefly suspended supply of fuel shipments last September.
Whether for payment delays or strategic reasons, China has undoubtedly played a useful role in getting the North back to the conference table. As the main source of economic sustenance to the North, it holds the only leverage with which to restrain Kim Jong Il. That much is true, but how far it will go to use that leverage is open to question. Has it not waited until the North's nuclear test to intervene on behalf of the rest of the world? Fearing a regime collapse or troubles along its northeastern borders with North Korea, it continues to supply food and energy irrespective of the Security Council resolution banning provisions of anything other than food aid. On the matter of nuclear development, China so far has never seriously pressured Pyongyang to abandon it, though it insists it wants a nuclear-free peninsula. Likewise China has not seriously acted against Pakistan developing its nuclear program.
Asia should welcome China playing the role of a responsible regional power, but it has a long way to go before it actually demonstrates that capability. Its role has been highly selective: stepping in only when the situation gets tense, such as the recent North Korean test, or breezily choosing to stay out of potential nuclear crisis such as Iran's when it clashes with its economic interest. China is an Asian power, but economic and military might alone do not make it a responsible power. What it needs is a vision for making the regional order peaceful and safe for all to prosper. Does China have it? Not yet.
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