Shim Jae Hoon at PostGlobal

Shim Jae Hoon

South Korea

Shim Jae Hoon is a Seoul-based journalist and commentator writing for a variety of international publications including YaleGlobal Online, The Straits Times of Singapore, The Taipei Times and Korea Herald. He was a correspondent for Far Eastern Economic Review in Seoul, Taipei and Jakarta. Close.

Shim Jae Hoon

South Korea

Shim Jae Hoon is a Seoul-based journalist and commentator writing for a variety of international publications including YaleGlobal Online, The Straits Times of Singapore, The Taipei Times and Korea Herald. more »

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Iran and North Korea Are Nuclear Siamese Twins

Seoul, South Korea - It is no surprise that Iran refused to halt uranium enrichment activities despite the Group of Six's package of incentives. Like Kim Jong Il in North Korea, Ahmadinejad has fashioned an argument that the pursuit of peaceful nuclear energy is a matter of sovereign rights. This leaves him little room to compromise.

Any concession on the part of Tehran would be viewed by its religious hardliners as sign of weakness. Also, Iran's nuclear program has advanced so far already that it may be too late to persuade Ahmadinejad to accept a compromise. It's evident that with the latest proposal, Iran is looking for more time to complete its uranium enrichment process.

Iran's nuclear challenge has a lot in common with North Korea's. To Kim Jong Il, his plutonium-based weapons program is the most promising tool he has to guarantee his regime's survival. The U.S.'s promise of economic aid to help rehabilitate Iran's shattered economy in exchange for abandoning the nuclear program is unacceptable to Ahmadinejad because the economy alone will not save him. He needs an external threat to keep his hungry people united.

For example, this year North Korea saw the collapse of the 1994 energy deal under which South Korea, the U.S. and Japan agreed to build a light water reactor to replace the North's suspect reactors. Construction was underway but in the end, the North placed so many obstacles to its successful completion that the project was discontinued, with the South losing US$1.4 billion in initial investment.

Back to Iran. The August 31 deadline will leave no option for the UN Security Council but to impose sanctions on Tehran. The question is how strong will it be? Will it be powerful enough to compel Iran to change course and accept a compromise? Will China and Russia, with considerable interest in Iran's oil reserves, agree to a toughly worded resolution that could make a difference?

Here again, a comparison with North Korea is irresistible. The July 15 Security Council resolution on North Korea bans transfer of funds and resources that may be used for its nuclear development program; it was a vague form of sanction. China and Russia agreed to endorse this thin resolution only when Japan and the U.S. agreed to disconnect it from the Article Seven provisions requiring military enforcement. So as far as the North is concerned, it has failed to make a significant impact. China continues to supply the North with food and fuel, as does South Korea, in the name of humanitarian concern.

Where Iran's case differs from North Korea's is its economic size. While North Korea has always been poor and autarkic, Iran is a major economy sitting on a huge oil resource. Strong sanctions will certainly hurt Iran, creating more domestic discontent. But will China and Russia agree to it? And if the North Korean example is any guide, there's some doubt as to how strongly China is committed to the notion of nonproliferation. China already shares a border with three of the world's five established nuclear powers: Russia, India and Pakistan. Indeed, it is credited with indirectly helping Pakistan's nuclearization. Unofficially, at least, it has brushed aside suggestions that the North is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear weapon state. Would it mind if Iran, sharing borders with Pakistan, also chose the nuclear option? Its position is ambiguous.

As important as the nuclear question itself is the close coordination that Iran and North Korea maintain in developing long-range missiles. Iran's missile program has depended heavily on North Korea's design and technology. Indeed, Iranian delegates were on the scene when the North test-fired seven ballistic missiles in the direction of Japan on July 5. Iran's Shahab-3 intermediate range missile is modeled on the North's Nodong series. It's clear both countries are committed to developing vehicles for carrying nuclear warheads.

So any Security Council action should consider the cases of both countries. One has implications on the other. Iran and North Korea sit at the extreme ends of the same axis. They are not separate problems. They look indivisible in ideological motivation: juche doctrine for the North, religious extremism for Iran. They appear to be on roughly the same technological level in their weapons program. It's time the Security Council deals with the Iranian case comprehensively, at the same time as it deals with North Korea's.

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