Learning from Cuba and Dwight Eisenhower
I think that the Iranian elections should make everybody sit back, take a deep breath, and try to see whether they really understand the dynamics of Iranian politics. Some are covering the "developing Iranian story" from the luxury of faraway places like Washington, D.C., London, and Paris. From their air conditioned offices, they write story after story on Iran, typing away on their laptops, frantic either to meet publication deadlines, make an extra buck (if they are freelancers), or simply, add spice to an event that is seen by everybody as "a hot topic." Most of those who are writing on Iran have never been to Tehran, and never met a post-1979 Iranian politician in their lives. They fall in the trap of getting "taken away" by what Western audiences want to hear and see, basically, that the Iranian regime is about to collapse, because of fraud and corruption, any minute now.
Reading stories in the Western press reminded me of a cartoon showing ten U.S. presidents, from Dwight Eisenhower to George W. Bush, saying: "Any minute now, Fidel Castro will fall!" Castro actually survived all of them, and stepped down at will because of illness and old age, bequeathing power to his brother, and neither the cunning of Kennedy nor the might of Reagan or the diplomacy of Clinton, were able to bring down America's cigar-chomping nemesis. Cuba was simply too strong to fall that easily. And the same applies to Iran, which has survived every US administration since Jimmy Carter. It has outlived two Reagan presidencies, Bush Senior, two Clinton administrations, two Bush administrations, and is likely to survive, Barack Obama as well. Simply put, Iran--like Cuba--is too strong to fall that easily.
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