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Ukraine on the Brink

By Andrew Zvirzdin

The gas supply crisis between Russia and the EU has been resolved; the larger crisis in Ukraine has just begun. In what has become a regular ritual, gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine were halted for two weeks in January as the Russian and Ukraine argued over debt, shipment fees, and the price of gas sold to Ukraine. With EU intervention, Russia and Ukraine agreed to resume shipments to Europe. Europe is now breathing a sigh of relief, but Ukraine is wincing at the new price it will have to pay for domestic gas and implications for its economy.


Ukraine has traditionally received gas from Russia at a highly subsidized price, an institutional relic from the Soviet Union. That was a boon for Ukraine's domestic economy, which has grown strongly since 2000. But in the agreement reached last week, Ukraine lost its favorable energy position with Russia; though the country will receive a 20% discount on the European price of gas for 2009, all subsidies will end on January 1, 2010. Gas prices have already more than doubled in Ukraine, from $179.50 per 1,000 cubic meters to $380.

The timing could not be worse for Ukraine's economy. Ukraine's major export industries, chemicals and steel, are large consumers of energy and the rise in price has significantly increased costs. But this rise in costs comes at a time when the price of steel has plummeted by over fifty percent since last summer. Higher costs and lower revenues is a recipe for economic disaster. In September 2008, analysts projected that 2009 GDP growth would be five percent; now analysts expect the economy to contract by at least five percent.

The new gas price may very well bankrupt the country. Already the country is living on life support, having received an emergency $16.4 billion loan from the IMF in November. With declining exports, and rising gas prices, the current account balance of the country has quickly turned unstable leading to a large depreciation of the national currency against the dollar. Yields on Ukrainian dollar-denominated debt are now the second highest in the world, after Ecuador which defaulted in December.

The EU, and the Czech Presidency in particular, are congratulating themselves for intervening and resolving the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis successfully. But the agreement did little to ensure long-term stability in European gas supplies, and the resulting higher energy prices positions Ukraine for a precipitous economic collapse. European nations will soon find themselves looking toward Kiev with concern once again.

Andrew Zvirzdin is a graduate student in the European Studies and Economics programs at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center in Italy.

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Johns Hopkins University.

Comments (11)

linktvmedia Author Profile Page:


Check out the Global Pulse video on this, showing how different TV news around the world are covering the issue.

Watch it here: http://www.linktv.org/video/3552

I'm an intern with Link TV, the nonprofit that produces Global Pulse. Interesting to see how the rest of the world is reporting on the news.

citizenUS Author Profile Page:

Why are we blaming Russia when the problem appears to be Germany? There was no problem with Gazprom provisions to the Ukraine until Germany and it's former Chancellor Schroeder made a deal with Russia's Putin to buy 49% of Gazprom. It appears that Germany is using it's ownership to pressure Russia to not deliver these supplies to Ukraine, claiming nonpayment on Ukraine's part. It appears they are also using it to inflame other countries to become involved militarily in the Caucasus/Central Asian corridor, which is benefitting countries like Germany and Japan that have major oil deals with these CIS states.

rksingh1987 Author Profile Page:

Why everybody is blaming Russia here? Ukraine has been palling with Bush in the face of Putin. If i was in PUTIN'S shoes i would have closed the tap much earlier- much much earlier. Beggars cant be choosers.

npsilver Author Profile Page:

The author had better recheck the sources for this article. While the Ukraine is on shaky financial footing the Russians foray into Georgia almost brought them to the brink of insolvency. The only good solid sources of income Russia has today is the sale of weapons, oil and then this natural gas which is not a product that originates in Russia but is shipped through that country. The Russians are desperate to keep the Ukraine out of NATO.

IdeologyKills Author Profile Page:

It looks like Yulia Tymoshenko is just not going to get it done. Which is too bad, because she's such a babe.

Kuzio Author Profile Page:

The author's article is full of misconceptions and is wrong.

First, who is subsidising who?
The gas is Central Asian - not Russian. So, it would be correct to say Central Asia is subsidising gas to Ukraine, not Russia.
The storage price in Ukraine is only $6.68 Ukraine and $82.50 Germany. The transit fee charged to Russia/Central Asia is only $1.6-1.7 wheras the average price is $4-10 in the EU.

Second, is the price will "bankrupt" Ukraine:
$360- 1st quarter (allegedly 20% discount on market price in quarter 1 of
450)
$270 - 2
$219 - 3
$162 - 4
$218.80 yearly average
But, Ukraine will only buy 5 b cu gas in quarter 1 due to high storage volumes purchased at last years $179.50
Gas to be purchased:
10.5 q. 2
12 q.3
12.5 q.4
Total gas to purchase this year is 40 b. cu.
Total cost is $9.67 billion (this is less than 2008 cost of imported gas of $9.87 billion)

I therefore don't understand the author's conclusion that a) Russia has been subsidising Ukraine (a typical comment from Putin and Gazprom) and that the new gas price will "bankrupt the Ukrainian economy.

Kuzio Author Profile Page:

The author's article is full of misconceptions and is wrong.

First, who is subsidising who?
The gas is Central Asian - not Russian. So, it would be correct to say Central Asia is subsidising gas to Ukraine, not Russia.
The storage price in Ukraine is only $6.68 Ukraine and $82.50 Germany. The transit fee charged to Russia/Central Asia is only $1.6-1.7 wheras the average price is $4-10 in the EU.

Second, is the price will "bankrupt" Ukraine:
$360- 1st quarter (allegedly 20% discount on market price in quarter 1 of
450)
$270 - 2
$219 - 3
$162 - 4
$218.80 yearly average
But, Ukraine will only buy 5 b cu gas in quarter 1 due to high storage volumes purchased at last years $179.50
Gas to be purchased:
10.5 q. 2
12 q.3
12.5 q.4
Total gas to purchase this year is 40 b. cu.
Total cost is $9.67 billion (this is less than 2008 cost of imported gas of $9.87 billion)

I therefore don't understand the author's conclusion that a) Russia has been subsidising Ukraine (a typical comment from Putin and Gazprom) and that the new gas price will "bankrupt the Ukrainian economy.
not survive the gas price increases?

marknesop Author Profile Page:

While you're handing out blame for Russia's phoenix comeback from the ashes, don't forget that lovable puddin'head from Crawford by way of Connecticut, George W. Bush. Bush's lunatic energy policies (summarized as, "find a country with huge oil reserves, make up a reason to invade them and then appropriate their resources for the greater good of American power") are direct and significant contributing factors to Russia's regained international clout - thanks to the soaring price of oil, inspired by the bungled war in Iraq.

That debacle put money in net oil exporter Russia's pockets like nothing else could have done. Money is power. Saakashvilli's stupid lunge to gobble up pro-Russian enclaves, which anyone could have told him would be a hotbed of resentment even if he had been successful, provided Russia a perfect opportunity to flex their considerable military muscle from the vantage point of moral high ground.

As long as tools like Bush and Saakashvilli are writing the script, Russia can't lose.

wa_idaho_lonewolf Author Profile Page:

i thought that george soros and his "orange revolution" had solved all of ukraines problems. but it would seem that the russians have learned an awful lot about how the u.s and its' proxy NGOS do business. after the u.s. raped the russian economy at the behest of the clinton white house and all of the wall street scammers, it has become quite apparent that the russians have stolen a play or two out of our playbook. first georgia-where the tulips are no longer in bloom-now ukraine. and these are just the first two "independant" countries that will recieve this treatment. latvia, estonia, and then lithuania will most likely be next. the russians are back with a vengeance and all of this because of the clintonians, the neo-consevatives and the chicago school of economics liberal fascist elements. the blowback of these failed foreign and economic policy ventures will be tremendous and unstoppable for the foreseable future. we are spread too thin and too economically hamstrung to resist at the present moment.

RomanB Author Profile Page:

Ivanckenko, a little biased toward Russia aren't you? Yuschenko might be pro-Ukrainian but that makes him neither anti-Russian nor an American pawn. I'd says its about time for Russia to elect a new president as well since Putin has overstayed his welcome:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7862370.stm

ivanchenko Author Profile Page:

this was quite predictable from the very moment when Yuschenko showed first anti-Russian political signs, but it was great Russian patience to wait until Ukraine 'president' turned completely anti-Russian during the peacekeeping operation in Georgia, during which Ukraine supplied weapons to the aggressor (Saakashvilli).
What is the reason to regret about this Soviet price gifts if even a little child would understand that in order to coexist with Russia peacefully (70% of Ukrainians have relatives in Russia, 30% of Russians have relatives in Ukraine) Ukraine should elect a different president. The time for illusions is over. Being an american pawn is not good for any country.

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