By Michael Weber
On a recent cover of Der Spiegel, Germany's leading newsmagazine, she's referred to as "Angela Mutlos". Translation: Fainthearted Angela. The headline of a recent article in The Economist asks where she can be found.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's response to the world's economic crisis has been slow and hesitant, earning her the nickname of Madame No in media across Europe.
Now, it has drawn criticism from within her own Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and particularly from its more conservative sister party, the CSU. And although her party still leads in the polls, the percentage of Germans who credit her with strengthening the country's economic power has slipped 17 percent in about a month.
Germany's cautious approach to stimulating the economy fits with Merkel's long-time and primary goal of attaining a balanced budget. But it looks rather modest in comparison to efforts by the U.S., France and the UK.
UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government is running a record deficit, expected to reach almost 8% of GDP. President Nicholas Sarkozy has prepared a multi-billion dollar stabilization package -- and has accused Germany of only thinking while France is acting. The compliments Merkel received for her leadership during Germany's EU presidency are long forgotten. Instead, Brown, Sarkozy and European Commission President Barroso met Monday to discuss the global economic crisis without even inviting Merkel.
The chancellor remains more popular at home, where 55% of the German population believe she is doing a good job handling the financial crisis. Many believe, however, that Merkel's support will fade the more isolated she appears.
Polls published by Germany's primary TV network ARD suggest that the chancellor will remain in office following next September's parliamentary elections. Thirty-seven percent of poll respondents say they plan to vote for Merkel's CDU, 23% for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and 12% each for the Left Party, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens. The rest of the vote would be split among smaller parties unable to cross the minimum threshold of 5% of the national vote needed to be represented in parliament.
If Merkel fails to show strength in coming months, voters suffering from the hardships of an economic recession might swing to one of the left-wing parties that are likely to make 'social justice' a priority in 2009 - SDP, the Left Party or the Greens.
But if the polls hold up, the results would give the CDU and the right-leaning FDP - its preferred partner -- 49 percent of the vote. This would accrue to an absolute majority given that SPD, Greens and the Left Party only receive 47% of the vote on aggregate. If support for Merkel ebbs, the CDU and FDP might have to add a partner from the left.
A CDU-FDP-Greens alliance (called the 'Jamaica Coalition' due to the party color symbols of black, yellow, green)has been suggested by some but currently encounters too much resistance within all three parties. The more likely outcome is therefore a continuation of the current government -- the grand coalition between the Merkel's CDU and SPD.
Neither voters nor CDU/SPD members really want such a coalition, whose policies could be expected to approach the lowest common denominator between the two main strands of German politics, the CDU and SPD.
That would mean a perpetuation of the status quo and domestic-oriented politics with a lot of finger pointing. This politics of "little steps" may not be enough to address the financial crisis. Furthermore, it is at odds with the decisive policies taken by the U.S. and proposed by the EU Commission, Britain and France.
What does this all mean for the U.S.? When Barack Obama takes office in January, he is likely to find a German government entangled in internal campaign battles between its own CDU and SPD officials. Moreover, unless a grand coalition can be avoided, President Obama can expect more politics of "little steps" in the long run. He will find it difficult to convince German politicians to take decisive actions against global challenges such as terrorism, the financial crisis or even climate change.
Michael Weber is a visiting scholar at the Center for Transatlantic Relations.
Email the Author | Email This Post | Del.icio.us | Digg | Facebook
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Johns Hopkins University.
Comments (10)
A lot of what the previous blogger says has merit. I saw this one article on the 8 trillion:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/26/MNVN14C8QR.DTL
and there is mention that deflation is a threat. One thing the neocons neglected from the original mentor, gipper, Reagan, was his propensity to look to the bright side. What the bailouts may be doing now is creating a serious back draft of fear, cyclical commentary feeding it more, and creating more. One approach is to rid reform plans of those that sat and slept while toxic loans and investments went incredibly by without notice. The credit default swaps got out of hand and became a "sure thing," then I think there was money pulled out of the market to pay the debts of the sure thing. One idea is for the feds to offer to set up new banks with money conditional on managers with clean records, that being better than gilding the lilly of ineptitude. Also we have deposit insurance, we should not make light of calling this another depression.
December 18, 2008 9:22 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 18, 2008 21:22
I really wish Germans will keep Chancellor Merkel for the least another 10 years. She is a stable leader and ally in Europe. As a scientist, she isn't seeking political clouds. Her husband, another chemist I think, did not even go to her inauguration. She just wants to get things done right and be done with it. We can use a few more of these scientific minds in our government. Now I am looking forward to what Dr. Chu can do for our energy needs and policies. Politicians just talk too much and do too little.
December 17, 2008 10:42 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 22:42
Michael Weber bashing away on the German chancellor. OH, What a surprise.
With such winning proof as "maybe beleive". And "voters might swing"...
Vintage, and disgusting. Perhaps look to his neocon brethern here, log in the eye versus splinter, and all that.
December 17, 2008 12:29 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 12:29
In many cases not following the herd instinct Chancellor Merkel may be doing the right thing for Germany. Everybody else economic stimulating monies will flow to Germany, ripping the benefits without straining ones pocket.
December 17, 2008 10:45 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 10:45
I think it is wise for Ms. Angela Merkel to distance herself from the policies done by the USA and the UK and partners. I applaud her efforts.
December 17, 2008 7:36 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 07:36
Is she by chance related to Madame YO, here in DC? LOL
December 17, 2008 6:46 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 06:46
I think Chancellor Merkel is doing a wonderful job. We would be lucky if we could have a president like her. Germany is also under the pressure of ever-increasing Chinese imports. However, I can find German made toys on our Main Street, while it is harder to find American made toys on the same shelf. German manufacturing remains strong, despite the recent scandals at Siemens. The Germans know you can't continue making money out of old money on Wall Street. At certain time, somebody has to make new money and that is called exports through manufacturing goods and services.
December 17, 2008 12:25 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 00:25
We Americans had better get used to the fact that nobody wants our advice, including our traditional allies like Angela Merkel. Now is the time for us to shut up and rebuild our political and economic integrity, and there's no guarantee we're capable of that.
December 17, 2008 12:11 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 17, 2008 00:11
Chancellor Merkel is not isolating herself. She knows sometimes it's better to be patient and wait. Look at us! All the rush to put out fires here and there has achieved little to show for at this point.
December 16, 2008 9:21 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 16, 2008 21:21
Reversing the effect of the toxic bubble created by USA can not be done by creating more credit - a.k.a. printing money.
Mrs. Merkel's limitation on the so called BAILOUT is reasonable, as Germany still has a great manufacturing base [pace UK/USA] and large national saving [Pace UK/USA/etc] and foreign credits based on long time positive international trade bqalance {pace UK/USA].
The brains of UK/USA Der Spiegel are quite willing to load the next generations with unservicable debt load [a.k.a. lower living standards] as long as they can keep their PONZI SCHEME RUNNING - we spend other people's money for our own benefit.
The little question arises: where are all these bailout funds coming from - the magnitude is beyond the total net saving of the globe, including China, Japan, EU, Persian Gulf, Russia at al. Recall the Federal Reserve already used 8.4 TRILLION dollars, without Congressional Approval effectively raising the debt load of the USA taxpayer OF THE FUTURE. This amount does not include approx 1 TRILLION toxic garbage on the books of CITY, nevermind the other USA UK, EU finacial oinstitutions' exposure.
Ms Merkel chose to pay the piper today, while Der Spiegel, Mr. Brown and the USA administration chose to limp along til the next generation is bankrupted, thus cancelling all pesions, all social assistances, and their mainstay they DEFENCE BUDGETS.
December 16, 2008 5:50 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on December 16, 2008 17:50