Imagine it's February, 2008. Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia is imminent. International analysts are warning about reactionary moves by other breakaway regions. They say that South Ossetia and Abkhazia would become more daring in making official their already de facto independence from Georgia. They also say that after the successes of these regions-turned-states, we shouldn't be surprised by the appearance on the map of independent republics called either Transnistria (in Moldova), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) or Republika Srpska (Bosnia-Herzegovina).

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On October 17th, the Associated Press reported the case of an Afghani teenage girl brought to Seattle by five immigrants from her country. For three years, she was subject to forced labor and physical and sexual abuse at the home of her captors. The recent case is only one example of the global humanitarian crisis that constitutes human trafficking. It's a debate that has returned to prominence in recent days in the wake of the 60th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the election debate over San Francisco's controversial Proposition K, a ballot initiative that would effectively de-criminalize prostitution.

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If you are currently planning a vacation to Europe, I advise you to make a few more sweaty trips to your nearest gym or take out that dusty ab-trainer you bought a few summers ago. Otherwise, you might become the center of an unpleasant trans-Atlantic striptease.

The European Commission has been trying to introduce body scanners that can be used in alternative to body searches at airports across the EU by 2010. Body scanners are machines that use radio waves to produce nude-like images of individuals. In a proposal last month, the Commission added scanning to a list of civil aviation security measures. The machines already have been introduced on a trial basis in ten of the busiest airports in the U.S., where there has been little or no public debate on the issue.

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A young Bangladeshi man working at the convenience store pointed to a plastic bag in his hand. "What do you call this?" he asked me in Italian.

"Bag," I responded in English.

"No, in Italiano?"

"Uhm borsa?" Wrong again. He rolled his eyes at me. At the time, I assumed he was simply correcting my facile grasp of his second language; but in retrospect, he may also have been expressing frustration that, unlike me-- a privileged foreign student-- his children may have to pass a language test to attend Italian schools.

Indeed, October was a tough month for immigrants. On October 15th, the lower house of Italy's parliament approved a plan to require immigrant children to pass a special test before being admitted to school. If students failed, they would be required to take special classes on Italian language and culture. The Senate must still approve the legislation for it to become law. Critics call it xenophobic, bordering on fascist while supporters say it is necessary for proper integration.

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1) Nomen est omen: When the Lehman Brothers donated $5 million for the expansion of the NYU Downtown Hospital's emergency room in 2003, the investment bank certainly did not think that itself could become a case for emergency treatment one day. Lehman Brothers field the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history in September 2008, and its different subsidiaries have been acquired by Barclays and Nomura Holdings.

2) Countdown for the presidential elections. With democratic candidate Barack Obama having become a pop icon, a store in New York holds a "Obama Sale."

Photo credit: Susanne Harsch

How will the current plummet of oil prices affect Russia? Guesses abound, mostly in the negative, but they remain nothing more than just guesses.

History can be interesting without being terribly useful. In 1986 oil prices crashed. The resultant slowdown in the Soviet economy, heavily dependent on sales of oil and gas, was one of the causes of the Soviet breakup at the end of 1991. But is this lesson really relevant?

For starters, the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union, even if it has inherited its legacy of pervasive corruption. The most notable feature is the absence of ethnic republics of any considerable size (and history of some self-rule). The economic slowdown was one of the causes of the Soviet collapse, but the mobilization of ethnic, nationalist claims was probably even more important. In today's Russian Federation ethnic tensions and desires for increased autonomy, or even sovereignty, do exist. (Look at nearly sixteen years' of events in the North Caucasus.) The Putin years have not laid this issue to rest, but the tensions have decreased since the formal end of the second Chechen War.

This brings us back to the original question: whither Russia if oil prices continue dropping? The government's 2009 budget will likely see its first deficit in nearly a decade. This will not be a problem for short-term operations, though: over $700 billion of reserves insures the government against this. The problem for Russia is a long-term one: several years of these prices, impossible though that might seem, would lead to catastrophic consequences for a state seeking to improve its living standards to and triple its GDP by 2020. By that date, the object of so much planning for Russia's long-term development, Russians' annual salary should increase by a factor greater than three and its pension problem should be solved. $60 per barrel of oil, if indeed we get there, will make these hopes and intentions a pipe dream.

The United States has strategic interests in these affairs. Our leaders would certainly hope to see a humbled Russian political and business elite. But only to some degree. We are not witnessing the imminent collapse of a fragile regime. Nor should we hope for one. The Russian leadership has not exercised great delicacy over the past six months. Its deterioration and consequent instability would be even worse for American interests. Bring the Russian back to the table, yes, but don't bring them back begging. Witness the results of the 1990s.

Chad Miner is a graduate student in the IR/Global Theory and History program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington, D.C.

On October 9th, both Montenegro and Macedonia recognized the free and independent state of Kosovo. This sudden joint-decision came as a great shock to Serbia, a traditional ally and neighbor of the two that has been counting on their support in its own efforts to block further international recognition of Kosovo. The newborn state -- the Republic of Kosovo -- unilaterally claimed its independence on February 17th of this year and so far has been recognized by 52 UN countries (including 22 EU countries and 4 former Yugoslav republics - Croatia, Slovenia, and now Montenegro and Macedonia.)

Serbia and its big brother Russia have maintained their opposition to the decision of the Kosovo government to proclaim independence. Until October 9 Montenegro supported this position, and had even sided with the Serbs in appealing to the ICJ on the issue of Kosovo's legality of independence. Furthermore, 24 hours before accepting Kosovo as a state, the Montenegrin Prime Minister conducted extensive diplomatic talks with Serbian officials regarding adoption of a number of bilateral agreements that would facilitate the entry of both countries into the EU. Soon after --and unexpectedly -- Montenegro recognized the newborn state of Kosovo. In unison, Macedonia followed up on accepting the state of Kosovo, despite an ongoing border dispute with Kosovo. This "Joint-Balkan-decision" (as ironic as it sounds!) came as a result of similar pressures on both countries, primarily from their Albanian minorities, and also from the United States and a few EU countries.

At present, both states have accepted the legality of the new country, which underscores their clear transatlantic orientation and constant striving for further economic and democratic development in the Balkans. Yet, despite its importance, this joint political decision certainly did not go unnoticed, sparking heavy protests among the Serbian population in Montenegro and leading to the expulsion of the Montenegrin ambassador in Serbia. Furthermore, Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic was quoted as saying that recognizing Kosovo's independence would represent a stab in the back for Serbia. Nevertheless, this statement was short-lived, whereas all three countries have clearly stated that they do not wish to ruin the relations between them and expressed the willingness of deepening their collaborations in their common areas of interest. Hence, this decision did not result in a damage of cooperation between the neighboring countries, leading to the palpable observation that recognizing Kosovo is vital for embedding stability in the region.

On the other hand, will Serbia ever follow the footsteps of its rational allies? Well, considering Serbia's strive for Western support and willingness to join NATO and the EU, such a possibility should not be deemed far-fetched. Kosovo's independence is a political reality that should not be ignored. If they do, however, decide to let go of Kosovo once and for all and recognize it as a state in the same way as all other ex-Yugoslav republics, it can be deemed as a contribution in moving the region towards greater integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. As stated by Marti Aahtisari, the Nobel Peace Prize winner for his meditation in Kosovo, "Serbia's recognition of Kosovo should be a "conditional requirement" of their integration in the EU" and they cannot expect to join the EU if they pursue destructive policies, partition and the blocking of the EU mission in Kosovo.

Adea D. Kryeziu is a graduate student in the IR/International Policy program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center in Italy.

The current financial crisis poses one of the greatest threats for Europe since the adoption of the euro as a common currency in 1999. With more and more European countries being affected, one has to wonder how Eurozone countries are faring as compared to their non-euro counterparts. Denmark, for example, has thus refused to replace its krone with the euro and is finding it difficult to cope in the midst of the crisis, prompting Danish leaders to more readily accept the notion of converting to the euro. Similarly, Iceland's problems with the krona have exacerbated the crisis within the country, leading many analysts to suggest that adopting the euro would help Iceland stabilize its economy.

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Obama's victory rocks Europe's moral certainty over the United States. Most Europeans see the U.S. returning to the western values that the Bush administration had subverted. But with the historical victory of an African-American with a Kenyan father becoming the U.S. president, Europe is suddenly haunted by a question that leads it into self-doubt: would Europe be able to vote for its own Obama? Looking at the current political landscape the answer has to be No. But the Obama presidency could indeed be a crucial external impulse for change in this respect - but not because Europe wants to live up to its own ideal of a society with equal opportunities for every citizen. In fact the reason can be found in Europe's ever pressing problems linked to its inability to integrate immigrants. Indeed, change is already under way in most European countries, though in slow motion.

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Last month I received a phone call from my eleven-year-old cousin, who wanted my thoughts for a class paper on "what it means to be American." The last two years have borne witness to an often rancorous debate over that very subject, a debate that played out on a global stage. Discussions of "American exceptionalism" prompted proud proclamations from this side of the Atlantic and engendered skepticism abroad. After all, what does make America so special?

On Election night, America offered one answer to that question, placing its hopes and its future in the hands of Barack Obama, our first African-American president. Tears of joy and shouts of happiness at a uniquely American achievement quickly spread beyond our borders, spawning images of shared euphoria across Europe from Paris to Athens. Common to both celebrations, though - those here and abroad - was a familiar refrain: "Only in America."

As I watched Parisians share in the Obamania, I couldn't help but ask the obvious question: could it happen there? Could they too elect a minority to the highest office in the land? Could an Algerian descendant occupy the Palais de l'Élysée? Could a second-generation Turk become German chancellor? Is Fortress Europe ready for a changing world?

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If Europeans could have voted in the U.S. presidential election, they would have voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. More than two-thirds of Germans, Italians and Spanish queried recently by a Harris Interactive poll supported Obama; less than one in ten favored John McCain. Only one percent of those polled in France supported McCain.

The main reason Europeans give for supporting Obama is his perceived ability to represent change from the Bush administration. Other strengths are his personality and youth. None of this is particularly surprising, and confirms most anecdotal evidence.

What is particularly striking about the poll is not what Europeans think about America but how they think about themselves.

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Europe, like the United States, has a China problem. But the problem is not what most analysts suggest. Four months ago European trade officials were fulminating about Europe's growing trade deficit with China. This week, with the Chinese economic ministry reporting a dramatic slowdown in the Asian giant's growth and G-20 countries meeting to try to chart a new course for the global economy, Europeans have begun to ask a different question: "What effect would a serious deceleration in China have on the Old World?"

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Like many fellow expats, I've felt especially European in the past eight years. And like many, I've felt especially American in the past two weeks. In 2008--for the first time in ten leap years--I returned to the U.S. to celebrate an election on U Street in Washington, DC. And from this vantage point, I beg to differ from my German (and British) friends.

Yes, they caught the excitement. And yes, the Germans personally backed Obama by a greater margin than Massachusetts. But the sophisticated Brits arched their eyebrows, wondering if No Drama Obama could ever be tough enough. (After he beat the Clintons at their own game?) And chattering-class Germans first reached a consensus half a year ago that it didn't make much difference who won this election; either way, they would be asked to send more troops to Afghanistan. (No difference on Guantanamo? On the torture that McCain endured as a hero, opposed as a maverick, and finally tolerated as a candidate?) Then on Nov. 5 the German commentators concluded that after ratcheting our expectations so high, we're all bound to be disappointed.

I suppose I should chalk this up to the difference between Americans' instrumental "yes we can" optimism and Germans' instrumental "the sky is falling" pessimism. Americans plunge into crises to cope by trial and error. See, for example, the Republicans' embrace of not only big, but humongous government in the financial meltdown. Germans, by contrast, worry about looming crises for years in advance and then chip away at cumulative remedies in the interim before the thereby diminished doomsday hits. See, sort of, their enthusiasm for fighting climate change.

Well, OK. We need both approaches. That's what our transatlantic alliance is for. It's supposed to avoid both deadlock and the lowest common denominator and find a synergy of contrary wisdoms that is more than the sum of the alliance's parts. But don't expect the New World to be disillusioned quite as fast as the Old. After an election campaign that for once needed to last this long to test John McCain's steadiness, Barack Obama's learning curve, and voters' racial maturity, we need a little more time to find our new equilibrium. Grant us at least until January 20 to dance on the tables of the U Street bars, savor this closure of our civil war, and name a fresh crop of babies Barack.

After all, transformation doesn't come every leapyear.

Elizabeth Pond is a Berlin-based author, journalist, and non-resident Senior Fellow at the SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations.

In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy nearly abandoned capitalism during his speech in Toulon on September 24th. Coming from the current EU President, his comments added to the sense of panic, rather than showing resolve and leadership. Those comments may have resonated with socialist sympathizers in France, but left financial analysts scratching their heads. Many are wondering if this is just another French promised reformist, turned apathetic. A few weeks ago he gathered with his European counterparts for a coordinated rescue package, which calls into question the purpose of his Toulon rhetoric. Remind me which side was he on during the '68 protests? He's made a decent effort to spearhead negotiations recently among the EU and US counterparts, but now appears to be stalling the process with his insistence on including energy-related language. If the Kyoto and the EU carbon credit fiascos taught anything is that the US and the EU are nowhere near consensus on climate change.

Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi appeared too fixated on saving Alitalia to notice the looming global meltdown. Now, with the banking system called into question, the rescue of Italy's national airline is on the backburner. Although he's a successful business executive who must understand markets, with his three-thousand Euro suits Berlusconi embodies an air of the backroom-deal and golden parachute that many attribute as the prime causes of the financial crisis. It may be hard for the billionaire to appeal to the unemployed if the crisis gets out of hand in Italy, but the jury is still out, pending the country's financial state in the coming months.

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Celebrities are all the rage in politics these days. Americans elected Barack Obama, famously labeled the biggest celebrity in the world by John McCain during a television advertisement three months ago. And now Lithuania has voted for a party composed entirely of TV and music stars to be part of its new government. Given the list of global challenges facing incoming world leaders, how did celebrities win against lifelong politicians?

Lithuanians wanted change. Like much of Europe, the Baltic country is reeling from the shockwaves of the American-centered global financial crisis. The tremendous growth of Lithuania during the past decade has been fueled by plentiful and accessible international lending. With credit dried up, its economy is headed for a hard landing. Lithuanians held the ruling Socialist Party responsible but many voters also appeared disgruntled with the other traditional political parties as well.

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As Romania faces parliamentary elections this Sunday, the country is at the crossroads. Though the economy has been growing at an unprecedented rate of 9 percent, corruption is still ripe and major infrastructure projects are lagging behind. Most importantly, there is no visible effort to bolster the government's institutional capacity to absorb the 28 billion euros that Romania, as a new EU member state, will receive in EU development aid until 2013.

Sunday's vote could have been the right moment for Romanian politicians to hold serious conversations on how to respond these challenges. This is especially true given that this election will be the first in Romania's post-communist history in which citizens will chose candidates in individual districts rather than cast their ballot for slates of office seekers nominated by each party.

Unfortunately, such substantive debates have been overshadowed by a number of controversies exploited, if not engineered, by President Traian Basescu, Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu and the heads of the main opposition parties.

As the campaign took off, a majority of current parliament members, seemingly in denial of the global economic downturn, passed legislation to double the salaries of schoolteachers. Tariceanu -- the leader of the center-right National Liberal Party (PNL) and a former ally of President Basescu in the center-right coalition for "Justice and Truth" -- initially refused to implement the decision. Then, President Basescu and his Liberal-Democratic Party (PLD) in turn accused him of neglecting the country's education system.

He also claimed that the Prime Minister was plotting a coup d'etat against him together with opposition Social Democrats (PSD). Social Democrats voted to impeach Basescu in April, 2007 on the grounds that he had allegedly violated the Constitution, although courts ruled that no such violation ever took place. Basescu scored an overwhelming victory in an ensuing referendum, and the political guerilla war with the Prime Minister and the opposition continued.

In the noise of such bitter partisan struggles, politicians appear to have forgotten that one of the chief goals of an election campaign to give them a chance to debate concrete proposals on how to deal with their country's challenges. Nineteen years after the fall of communism, Romanian politics is dominated more by individual ambitions and party interests than by the effort to seek consensus in the name of a much greater cause: the consolidation of a truly functional democracy.

Paul Bisca is a graduate student in the IR/Strategic Studies program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center in Italy.

European leaders have embraced Barack Obama's victory in the 2008 U.S. presidential elections, expecting the beginning of a new, brighter chapter in transatlantic relations. French President Nicolas Sarkozy expressed the feelings of many when he stated that Obama's election "has raised enormous hope in France, in Europe and beyond."

The new president is expected to make some policy reversals - such as closing the Guantanamo Bay detention camp - that will please many Europeans. But the initial euphoria about change in the Washington could wear off quickly as Europeans realize that America's overall national interest - remaining the leading economic and military power in the world - will not change and will continue to guide US foreign policy.

NATO's 60th anniversary summit in France and Germany in April, 2009 may well offer Europeans their first reality check on the 44th president. While the global financial crisis is likely to dominate the transatlantic agenda until then, key security challenges will need to be addressed urgently. We therefore expect Obama to arrive at the summit not only to praise the Alliance's past achievements, but to also present a "wish list" of things he expects America's European allies to contribute to US political and military efforts around the globe. The demands will signal that the new administration takes its partnership with Europe seriously - something Europeans routinely request.

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European politicians - whose nations have long struggled with the issue of racial integration - have duly noted the excitement generated by the U.S. electorate's choice of an African-American as its next president.

Now, Germany may be on the way to its own version of Obamania - thanks to the election of Cem Özdemir as Green Party leader. Özdemir's parents are originally of Turkish descent and immigrated to southern Germany during the peak of the Turkish guest worker immigration. Although there are now over 2.6 million ethnic Turks in Germany, Özdemir is the first ethnic Turk elected as a party leader and the highest-ranking politician ever with an immigrant background.

Ozdemir's election comes at a time when German leaders are struggling to fully integrate immigrants into Germany, and Ozdemir's election can be seen as reaffirming the government's efforts. The election will be inspirational for German youth of Turkish background, even if it does not immediately solve real problems such as unemployment and poverty. And too the Greens may have just discovered a new source of electoral strength within the immigrant community.

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Could Turkey help mediate longstanding U.S./Iran conflicts over Israel and Iran's nuclear ambitions? Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to try -- but the Obama administration may be less likely to give him a chance because of comments Erdogan made recently in Washington.

"Turkey wants to be the mediator between the new Obama administration and Iran, using its growing role in the Middle East to bridge the divide between East and West," Erdogan told the New York Times on November 9.

But on November 14 at the Brookings Institution, Erdogan suggested that Iran's desire for nuclear weapons was "normal for any country" and that countries with such weapons should consider getting rid of them -- a position at odds with both Turkish and NATO policy and unlikely to convince the Obama administration that Erdogan would be a useful go between.

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