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Will Comfort Conquer Europe?

By Paul Maximilian Bisca

It may sound strange at first, but think for a moment of the U.S. and the EU as empires at different stages of their evolution. What would that tell us about the way they're behaving as world players today?

Let's give this some context: More than 600 years ago, the Arab philosopher Ibn Khaldoun surveyed the history, politics, economics and theology of the Muslim world to answer the question of why empires rise and fall. He concluded that the life of an empire is limited to no more than three generations. The first is that of the conquerors: crude and nomadic, they descend from the steppes with the sole purpose of establishing dominion over their neighbors. The second generation has comfortably settled in the palaces of the vanquished, yet has not lost the ambition to mimic its forefathers and attain great accomplishments. The third generation has lost the appetite for greatness and is more preoccupied with enjoying accumulated wealth. Making history gradually becomes less attractive than making a good living.

That's not all fluffy theory if you think of it in present-day terms. In fact, it could explain many of today's differences between the U.S. and the EU. My own speculation from having lived in both places is this: While the U.S. is a second-generation empire for which ambition and the will to power still matter, the EU may have already crossed into the third generation, for which wealth and leisure are more prized than history-making.

A brief look at how the U.S. and EU manifest their presence in the world seems to support this claim. Since 2001, America has been fighting a war in Afghanistan and since 2003, in Iraq. Recently, the U.S. been negotiating agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic to place a defense missile system in the heart of Europe and next to Russia. U.S. troops are stationed around the globe in countries as diverse as Turkey and Japan. Good or bad, America's foreign policy is still that of a history maker.

The EU, on the other hand, was never conceived to be a great power. After two world wars, the French and Germans decided they had had enough fighting, and created such imaginative devices as integration through economics to bypass tougher political questions that could have hindered the EU's development. But today, this indefinite postponement has become a mode of being. Arguments about how to regulate the prices of mobile phone conversations across the Union or about how to share responsibilities between the EU's institutions ring more powerfully in Brussels than those about how to make the EU a stronger international player, a history maker rather than a history taker.

If this is true, and this is a big if, then one reason why Europe's leaders seem less concerned with history-making may be that their constituents have started to care less and less about it. According to Ibn Khaldoun, this would mean that Europeans have given up on dreaming of great things and have become absorbed by the pleasures of their own coffee shops, castles, museums, beaches and ski resorts. Could it be that Europe abandoned conquest only to succumb to comfort?


Paul Bisca is a graduate student in the IR/Strategic Studies program at the Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Bologna Center in Italy. He is originally from Romania.

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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Johns Hopkins University.

Comments (9)

jfernandezigles Author Profile Page:

Has the U.S. really more influence than the E.U in the world today?
I think there is an argument to be made that the E.U has more global influence, exercising "soft power" based on siplomacy, values and economic might. One can also argue that the US has lost a considerable amount of influence precisely because of the use of force.

Have you heard about the International court,or Kyoto or the land mine ban?
Ever wonder why bottles of soda that you pick at your local supermarket come in two litters?
Seems to me that the EU is in a better position to lead in a multipolar world

stodge Author Profile Page:

This is a fascinating thesis, and some of the comments are well taken. As an American Gen-X'er, however, my worry is that we too have passed into the "third generation" Mr. Bisca references and, indeed, seem to be racing toward the lowest common denominator.

In the 200-plus year history of our great nation, we fought a revolution against all odds to throw off the yoke of the world's greatest imperial power at the time. We responded enthusiastically (if somewhat reluctantly at first) to join our European and Russian allies in snuffing out the great menace Hitler posed to the world. We exploded the first atomic bomb. When President Kennedy challenged us to put a man on the moon before the Soviets, we did it faster than anyone could have believed possible. Ultimately, we beat the Soviets into submission and thoroughly discredited the dogma of Soviet-style Marxist-Leninism. Simply stated, we inspired the world with our accomplishments (with the indispensible help of our long-standing allies). But could we do any of those things today?

I worry that today, my fellow Americans seemingly care only about the utterly irrelevant machinations of Britney Spears and her ilk, our sports teams, and so-called "reality shows" and true crime dramas than we do about the future of our country and our place in the world. Studies have shown that, No Child Left Behind notwithstanding, a shockingly large percentage of our children can't point out Iraq (or even some U.S. states) on a map, yet they can tell you all about their sports icons or the latest dish on Hannah Montana or HSM3 or the lastest season of Survivor. Our celebrity-entertainment industrial complex spews a constant stream of utterly vacuous garbage in every direction. Everyone wants to pursue the path of least resistance to riches and fame, be it in law, business, or something else, rather than the much-needed careers of scientist, engineer, or teacher. Our politicians refuse to deal with the hard questions, while our Social Security system stands on the brink of disaster, our men and women in uniform get killed in Iraq, and our economy goes into full-scale meltdown. All the while, other nations like China or India get poised to pass us by.

America needs to wake up and smell the coffee because we run the risk of being rendered irrelevant in the not-to-distant future. It won't happen for a while, but I say it will happen eventually if we don't reverse course, and quickly. As a nation, we have to decide what we want our legacy to be and what kind of country we want to leave to our children and their children, before someone else makes the decision for us.

why_style Author Profile Page:

I like this model, but I agree with other posters that Mr. Bisca's view seems to be quite narrow. There is a certain overly simplified quality, and he does seem to imply that making history equates to conquest, or at the very least meddling. but as one of the main themes of the twentieth century was the move away from imperialism and colonialism, it would seem the rules have changed.

perhaps he's instead referring to the way in which a society engages the world outside its own borders. still, the EU is in a way a fledgling enterprise getting itself sorted. despite it's growth from a Europe that dominated world events, the EU can be seen as an emerging force much like china or india, a society about to enter the first stage in Mr. Bisca's model.

JS11 Author Profile Page:

It's a reasonable conceptual "lifcycle" framework, but just like with the stock market, it is not always possible at a given instant to tell where a civilization is in its lifecycle.

For example, in the US, the 80's started badly, just coming off stagflation, Carter, Afghanistan, Nixon, etc. Japan was kicking our butt economically, and the former Soviet Union was militarily ascendant. Just as we have now, there were cries of "end of the American century", and so on. Who knew we were just on the verge of a great 20 year run.

So just as it is practically impossible to pick a stock market low except in hindsight after many years, it's hard to say exactly where we are in this lifecycle.

Another point is looking at the EU is misleading. One has to look at a finer granularity. For example, the "new Europe" as opposed to "old Europe" has still not gone soft. For example, 10 years from now, if the US had to look for military allies, there is no reason that Poland might not send the largest contingent.

jheubusch Author Profile Page:

Great minds think alike, I guess. Here's another way of saying it - the "Europeanization of America." See Writing Frontier's piece on this at

http://writingfrontier.com/2008/07/27/the-europeanization-of-america/

danevt Author Profile Page:

"Could it be that Europe abandoned conquest only to succumb to comfort?" It could be true! And how unfortunate that such a well-educated, economically developed, and technologically advanced group of countries would collectively devote themselves to making life enjoyable for themselves instead of visiting death, destruction, and conquest on people elsewhere. How those Europeans have succumbed to the pleasures of a good life instead of wanting to interfere violently in other people's business is such a shame, isn't it? Imagine how many more wars there could be if only they hadn't succumbed!

pb1123 Author Profile Page:

Bisca writes as if there were just one way to "make history": conquest. That's rubbish.

Having spent centuries conquering and destroying one another, European countries are now intent on making another kind of history--the kind that supports the International Declaration of Human Rights for all its citizens, promotes tolerance of other cultures, economic growth, a vigorous welfare state, prevention of war and maintenance of international peace.

The EU's approach is far more enlightened than that taken by recent US governments.


cleveyoung Author Profile Page:

I think there is a fine distinction to be brought out here. When the writer talks about "making history" it seems to be equated with conquest of others as it was for the old Muslim and European examples. This is where too often the American experience is either misunderstood or misrepresented. While there were certainly times in its history when America expanded by conquest, it does not accurately reflect the modern American concept of "making history." Most Americans now have NO interest in conquest of other countries, regardless of what the rest of the world may believe. We would love to do business with you and make a great profit, but not own or control other countries. Sure, just like every country we will try to have an influence that is beneficial to us, but that is a long ways from control and/or occupation. When both World Wars ended we let countries we controlled go back to local control. Even in Iraq the American people are anxious to get out, but would like to leave behind a stable country first (and hopefully friendly to us).

So while the premise of the article is interesting it falls down by making comparisons that don't quite match up.

mschmitz1 Author Profile Page:

Dear Mr. Bisca,

I would partly disagree to your opinion. It may be that there should be discussion on how to make the EU a stronger international player, but international strength is not only measured by military strength or agressiveness when it comes to disputes. That might have been an appropriate approach back in Ibn Khaldoun's times, but is to my opinion no longer valid. Take - for example - Americas craving for change - did the war in Iraq or the defense system in Europe enforce Americas standing in the world? I'd say the whole thing is more about public opinion and not about rockets.

Best regards from Germany

Michael Schmitz

P.S. It still is a very impressive article.

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