For sports fans like George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the Annapolis meeting is the diplomatic equivalent of baseball's suicide squeeze bunt play: in the last inning of a nine-inning game, with runners on base and everyone wound up with anticipation, the manager tries a daring move that puts all the runners in motion while the hitter taps a soft bunt that aims to bring in a run and win the game. The suicide squeeze is one of the most exciting plays in baseball, perhaps in any sports. But it usually fails, because it is based on a combination of desperation and offensive deceit that rarely add up to a winning strategy.
The Annapolis meeting is a diplomatic suicide squeeze. It is unlikely to succeed, because the conditions and/or motives of the principal players -- the U.S., Israel and half the Palestinians represented by President Mahmoud Abbas -- are not conducive to the sort of daring moves and substantive compromises that are needed to achieve a full and fair peace. The Americans seem motivated primarily by a desperate need to elicit Arab and Iranian support on Iraq. They are not playing the fair mediator's role, but rather persisting in supporting Israeli positions more often than coming down in the middle of Israeli-Palestinian issues. America’s sudden, urgent exuberance for Arab-Israeli peace-making within a year, after six years of total neglect or blatant pro-Israeli bias, is neither convincing nor sincere. Trying to force through a peace accord on an American presidential timetable is likely to fail, as it did in 2000 when Bill Clinton tried the same thing, albeit with a bit more sincerity.
Annapolis is likely to result in continuing the (repeatedly failed) approach of scheduling more meetings and trying again to move forward with small confidence-building measures on both sides. If the U.S., Europe, and other world powers are prepared to back this up with strong and impartial engagement and compliance monitoring, demanding of Israel the same things that are demanded of the Arabs -- including an end to violence and compliance with international law -- then there is a chance for success.
It’s a moral obligation to explore any chance, however small. The Arabs are right to attend Annapolis, call the American bluff, and challenge the Israelis to genuine peace-making based on U.N. resolutions and equal rights for Arabs and Israelis. Annapolis is built on an imbalance of power and insincere motives; it is thus unlikely to affirm the full equality of Palestinian and Israeli national rights, and cannot be expected to achieve anything significant. The only way to find out, however, is to go to Annapolis, put the runners in motion, and...bunt.
Please e-mail PostGlobal if you'd like to receive an email notification when PostGlobal sends out a new question.
Email This Post to a Friend | Del.icio.us | Digg | Facebook | Email the Author
