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Tibet Won't Move China -- But Taiwan Might

A lot of ink has been spilled, and rightly so, on Tibet. But is it possible that the bigger story happening in Asia right now is what's going on between China and its other unruly relative - Taiwan? Is it also possible that the troubles in Tibet could be setting the scene for faster breakthroughs vis-a-vis Taiwan? I think so.

Here's why.

Over the weekend China's president, the purposely boring Hu Jintao, met with the purposely boring vice-president elect of Taiwan, Vincent "Smiling" Siew, in the purposely sleazy resort province of Hainan in southern China. The meeting amounted to the highest-level contact between officials from Taipei and Beijing, which claims that Taiwan is part of China, since 1949 - the year when China's Communists won a civil war and the defeated Nationalists scurried to Taiwan. More recently, the two sides have had no substantial talks in eight years.

The Post briefed the meeting in our Sunday paper. The Times filed something on its website today in a piece that argued the planned dialogue won't amount to much because the Tibet situation would constrain China's leaders on any openings with Taiwan. Just the opposite, I think.

The election last month of Siew and Ma Ying-jeou, the Nationalist candidate for president, in Taiwan means that after eight years of failed leadership by President Chen Shui-bian, who bungled the island's security and its economy, relations between Taipei and Beijing are likely to improve. Leaders from the two sides are finally talking about establishing direct flights. (It takes a day to get from Taipei to Shanghai, home to 250,000 businessmen, right now. If the flights were direct, it'd take an hour.) Pres-elect Ma has said he wants to end most restrictions on Taiwanese investment in China. (A recognition of reality considering Taiwan's businessmen have already sunk $100 billion or so in mainland factories.)

This is good news, but not just for the economy of the region. It's also good news for those who care about the preservation of the world's only majority-Chinese democracy (Taiwan) and the prospect of political change in China.

Why?

For eight years, outgoing President Chen basically advocated that Taiwan declare independence from China. He couldn't say it openly because 1) China threatened to fire missiles at Taiwan if Taiwan took such an act (...not fun) and 2) the United States, which is obligated to (kind of) defend Taiwan under the very ambiguously worded Taiwan Relations Act, has told Taiwan that if it declared independence we probably wouldn't be overly eager to run to its defense. So Chen resorted to a policy of what the Chinese liked to call "creeping independence" which basically meant seizing every opportunity to enrage Beijing. In the end, however, Chen - and Taiwan -- didn't get bupkis. Taiwan failed to improve its security. And China had a strong argument against any kind of democratization. Look at Taiwan, Beijing's mandarins would say, they have democracy and they want to split the motherland! That's a powerful argument over there.

So enter Ma, the Harvard-educated pretty boy of the National Party. He turned his strategy 180 degrees from Chen's. Needlessly antagonizing China, he's said, makes no sense. The keys to Taiwan's security and - critically - to the preservation of its full-throated democracy, he argued, are good relations with Beijing, not the constant tension Chen seemed to crave. This type of thinking upset some in Washington who frame dealing with China in a smart (and somewhat complex) way with Panda-hugging or collaboration with the godless Commies. But I think that Ma is right.

The reason is that as long as Taiwan stops purposely pissing off China, most of the Communist leadership will be happy to let the whole issue of Taiwan's sovereignty float for decades as long as everybody is making money. That will boost Taiwan's economy, grant China time to change and decrease the possibility that the US will have to go to war to defend Taiwan. This peaceful interim will also give Taiwan time to push China's political system in the right direction.

And that's a key here. The only territory in the world with the capability to teach China about democracy is Taiwan. It won't be Hong Kong, which was, is and will always be just a glitzy colony - whether to the old rulers, the Brits, or the new ones, the Chinese. It's definitely not the West. If there's anything the Tibet situation has shown it's that the gap in understanding between us and China is vast and growing bigger.

But once China's propaganda czars can no longer paint Taiwan's democracy with the tar brush of "splittism" or "treason" (which they gleefully did while Chen was president), its political system will become a lot more attractive to the Chinese.

Now, how does Tibet play into this?

China's president Hu has already pretty much ruled out any major breakthroughs with the Dalai Lama. China's state-run media have reverted to propaganda from the Cultural Revolution with a 9/11 twist, describing Tibet's spiritual leader as a "jackal" in a monk's habit and a "terrorist."

But Beijing is desperate for some type of international breakthrough to show the world in this, its Olympic, year. Why not Taiwan? Arguments that flexibility on Taiwan would be impossible because it'd be inconsistent with toughness on Tibet don't wash. When the chips are down (and they are down for China right now), expediency wins. Taiwan could be the beneficiary. And that'd be good news.


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Comments (98)

Pixel:

>>BRAMBLES wrote:
>>..Earlier this month, after the Taiwan presidential election, for several times I heard cabbies (in Beijing) talking about why the election in Taiwan could be a good thing: "Chen is no good, so he gets sacked by the people. No bloodshed and no big fuss. It's good."

Well, BRAMBLES, you heard that only because the pro-unification KMT won the election. Had the election gone the other way, it would probably be a very different conversation. In fact, when Chen won the presidential elections, twice, democracy has always been called by the Chinese propaganda machine as an 'evil tool used to split the motherland."

So I guess whether democracy is a 'good thing' to the Chinese depends on if the candidate favored by the Chinese gets elected? Absurd as it may sound, that's how the Chinese perceive a 'democracy.'

Can:

Why you always see China as your mind,Why don't you go to China to see what happen,Tibet and Taiwan are pars of China ,you don't know Chinese history,you can't talk !I know USA is a free place,although you are free,you always do other states' things ,what you do are very ugly!

Anonymous:

To Peace Maker:

Your point well taken.

The fate of Taiwan's future is already carved on stone, and is not to your liking, to that, i say i am sorry.

If Taiwan declared independence under America's protection in the 50' and 60' of last century, PRC couldn't do a dame thing about it because it didn't have the necessary military power to overcome it, and you might have your chance, although PRC might do something later. But that didn't happen because KMT is nationalist and didn't want to be independence. Come 70' and 80', PRC have nuclear weapon and that deter America's
effort to protect Taiwan from independence. And now PRC is getting stronger in military, and the will of America to confront PRC is getting weaker. One day in the near future, PRC will stand shoulder to shoulder with USA military wise, and America will not want to have anything to do with Taiwan unless USA willing to sign a suicide pact with PRC. The truth is awful but true.

Taiwan is never a independence nation, none of the
leading nations perceive Taiwan as a nation ,that include USA, EU, Russia,Japan etc.

The only thing that you and I can hope for is for PRC to develop a democracy system that's acceptable to Taiwanese and avoid bloodshed and have a peaceful unification.

In the mean time, let's keep the statue quo, talk to each other, improve the relationship, come to an agreement of some sort to give Taiwan more room on the international stage, every body makes some money and happy!

Anonymous:

"Might is Right" is right. No amount of humiliation can make China release Tibet.

Tibetans, don't even think of an American-style war of independence, because that will surely lead to a real Tibetan genocide.

Peacemaker:

Re: SO BE IT comments,

I must correct you when you say "USA will not let go any of her territory, neither will China."

China gave up it's claim on Taiwan in an international treaty to Japan in 1895. It was Japanese territory for 50 years. Therefore, it has no claim on Taiwan.

After 1945 when Japan was defeated, Taiwan wasn't given to the PRC or to anyone else for that matter. Taiwan has a legitimate claim for independence.

PRC people should be smarter on this issue anyway. Why not let Taiwan have its independence and let its democratic principles grow. This way the PRC people can use Taiwan's success for leverage to challenge their own gov't for more basic freedoms. I have to ask, do you really want to be under an authoritarian system?? - This is hard to believe. Ok, sure when you are making $, you are happy, but if something happens like your land is taken by some corrupt govt official I'm sure you wished you had some basic rights and a fair justice system to handle this. Likewise, how about insane policy that forces women to have abortions?

In the future, when Taiwan see's that the PRC has evolved into a trustworthy system, they can give up their independence and become the 23 province. There is no rule chiseled in stone that says Taiwan doesn't have the right to merge with another country if it is independent.

Lastly on your Might is Right statement, sorry, I can't agree with you on that either.

Peacemaker:

Re: So be it comment,

I must correct you when you say "USA will not let go any of her territory, neither will China."

China gave up it's claim on Taiwan in an international treaty to Japan in 1895. Therefore, it has no claim on Taiwan. After 1945 when Japan was defeated, Taiwan wasn't given to the PRC or to anyone else for that matter. Taiwan has a legitimate claim for independence.

PRC people should be smarter on this issue anyway. Why not let Taiwan have its independence and let its democratic principles grow. This way the PRC people can use Taiwan success for leverage to challenge their own gov't for more basic freedoms. (Do you really want to be under an authoritarian system?? - This is hard to believe. Ok, sure when you are making $, your happy, but if something happens like your land is taken by some corrupt govt official I sure you wished you had some fair justice system to handle this. Likewise, how about insane policy that forces women to have abortions?

In the future, when Taiwan see's that the PRC has evolved into a trustworthy system, they can give up their independence and become the 23 province. There is no rule chiseled in stone that says Taiwan doesn't have the right to merge with another country if it is independent.

Lastly on your Might is Right statement, sorry, I can't agree with you on that either.

Tenzin Lhanze:

dump all u haters of Tibet. we just want freedom and independence. u wouldn't understnd us Tibetans one bit. u dont know how it feels to have your brothers and sisters killed and tortured by bloody communist cannibals. u can just lean back in your luxury chairs and eat caviar and high tea imported from some far away place that no one can pronounce but there is one thing u can never do. feel the hurt, sadness, and anger of a dying species of human the TIBETANS!

so be it:

Very nice article. Well done.

My comment is not about the article, but all the posts.
All of you have your points and all of you missed the point.
Every nation looks out for their own interests, do what's best for their nation. USA will not let go any of her territory, neither will China.
Nuclear-weapon has kept WW3 away from us, and forced nations to negotiate, moral high ground and media are amongst tools to create a better negotiate position, but of cause the most important tool is military.
So debate whatever you want, but at the end: Might Is Right.

Andrew:

Hi, nice very nice page..!

Good luck !

budfox:

Chen,
I believe you need to re-read my comment. I have "all of the above" and so do many others, that is the point I was trying to make.

>>Why? Because it is not a Chinese understanding thing; it is pure anti-Asian prejudice. And you all are totally infected with it!

Grow up or see a doctor.

Chen:

Budfox:

I'm constantly amazed at how quickly a Chinese person brings up the "You are not Chinese so you don't know jack argument". My question to them is what does it take to understand a Chinese? Do you have to live in Taiwan/China for 20+ years and pay attention to the nuances of life? Do you have to speak fluent Mandarin? Do you have to have a lifelong desire to study and understand all things Chinese? Do you have to be married to a Chinese person and have kids?

All of the above.

Why? Because it is not a Chinese understanding thing; it is pure anti-Asian prejudice.

And you all are totally infected with it!

Jeanne Wang:

Thanks for your comments Michael Turton...this article is a piece of uninformed crap.

Willie Wong:

The Slanted View of White Supremacists
“But Beijing is desperate for some type of international breakthrough to show the world in this, its Olympic, year. Why not Taiwan? Arguments that flexibility on Taiwan would be impossible because it'd be inconsistent with toughness on Tibet don't wash. When the chips are down (and they are down for China right now), expediency wins. Taiwan could be the beneficiary. And that'd be good news.”
1. White supremacists talk as if the so-called U.S.-Taiwan Relations Act were a legal right and a God-given principle for the U.S. to “divide and conquer China” using Taiwan as an agent. The fact is no nation on earth has authority or jurisdiction to pass a law regarding another sovereign state. The Taiwan Relations Act is the shameless and immoral way for the U.S. to violate China’s sovereignty. This is not the first time the U.S. oppressed and suppressed China. Ever since 1949 the U.S. sent the 7th Fleet to protect Chiang Kai Sheik’s government and prevented the reunification of Taiwan with China, the U.S. has consistently and persistently used all means, by hook or by crook, to undermine China in all fronts. Lately white supremacists feel uneasy because their foul scheme of getting Taiwan to secede from China using their agents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian failed and fizzled out. The overwhelming majority of Taiwanese rejected the corrupt government of Chen Shui-bian and rejected the insidious independent proposal. Taiwan has been a part of China longer than the existence of the U.S. The forcing of Taiwan to buy costly and deadly weapons so that the Chinese may kill themselves will also flop because Taiwanese are wise up and they do not buy the dirty trick of white supremacists anymore.
2. The U.S. has wronged China too many times, from participating in the infamous Opium Wars that killed Chinese, burned and looted China’s national treasures worth at least US$1,000 trillions; to Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson threatening to drop atomic bombs on China; to bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade; to meddling in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang internal matters; to demanding revaluation of RMB (yuan) and blaming China for American financial and economic crisis; to spying and targeting China and using the so-called National Missile Defense system to encircle China; to using American mass media to spread rumors and smear China with outrageous lies and falsehoods; the list can go on and on due to the hatred, malice and prejudice of white supremacists against China and Chinese people.
3. White supremacists manufactured lies in order to attack and occupy other nations. If white supremacists dare to start war of aggression against China, they better think and think again. The U.S. will be historically judged and forever condemned as the aggressor that brings about a nuclear holocaust which may end the human civilization. No nation or anyone can push or stop China now. The rising of China will overwhelm its foes and enemies like a tsunami. That is the crux of the matter: white supremacists are not only unhappy but jealous of China’s spectacular success because after more than half a century of propagandizing and working for the demise and destruction of China, not only to no avail; China is getting better, freer, richer and stronger every day.
4. White supremacists are busy bodies who relish abnormally pointing others with their dirty fingers. What kind of democracy, human rights, freedom of expression, system of government, etc. that white supremacists are so proud of? Is America the model for the world? What is the no. 1 debtor nation in the world? Which nation has the largest budget and trade deficits? Why the dollar is dropping? Which nation has the largest prison population and the highest crime rate? Which nation has the largest single-parent population? What nation recently committed the largest corporate scandals in history? Which nation has global overseas military bases? Which nation is the most hated on earth? Why 81% of Americans think America is on the wrong track?! If 81% of people believe their government is doing wrong, what legitimacy does the government have? It is about time American people rise up to kick out useless and corrupt leaders, to clean house and change the course of direction in order to save America from self-destruction.
April 19, 2008
Willie Wong
http://www.wongwillie.zoomshare.com/


Asian:

EU is the old moon.
USA is the full moon.
China is the young moon.

In the future,
USA will be the old moon.
China will be the full moon.

Imagine!
In the future CCP will rule China just like today.

Are you happy?

I can welcome the rise of China with pleasure if people can enjoy freedom, justice and democracy in China just like USA.

But...

If We(Chinese, Asian, Western..) want to enjoy freedom, justice and democracy in the future, we have to do something NOW.

overseas chinese:

Mr Pomfret,

I like your analysis and I hope that Taiwan might influence China in a positive way. But I think you might be overly optimistic.

There is a big difference between China and Taiwan. China is big and Taiwan is small. Being small, the only way for Taiwan to survive in the world is to be like the west. By being like the west, Taiwan knows that China would think twice before resorting to force. China is big. It will not bend to external forces.

The only way for China to change is for change to happen from within. I don't know how that will happen but I think with more contacts with the world China will change.

I am very excited about the opening of tourism in Taiwan to people from mainland China. People will see with their own eyes. However I don't think anything will happen soon. China is ruled by old people. Old people don't change their minds. The hope is in the younger generation.

It is funny that people still say "communist china". China is communism in name only. To understand the leadership system today we can look back about 4000 years. Before it was established that the emporor of china passes from father to son, there was a system where leadership was passed to the most able in the next generation.

Free Guam! :

Though President-elect Ma is pro-China, he is not pro-reunification. Then again, he does'nt speak for the whole Nationalist Party.

An-old-conversation:

I remembered when brought my kid home from her work, a Taiwanese man needed a free drive to come home. During my driving, I asked a Taiwanese man a co-worker of my kid as:
"What is the different between a Taiwanese and a mainland Chinese?"

The Taiwanese replied: "Taiwanese are civilized people, and mainland Chinese are the barbarous communist asians and unfortunately, these people all use the same language!".
I said: "I know, all comunist countries they are all barbarous in the same way! China therefore is not an exception, and it is easy to understand!"

This is the true story that I learned from a Taiwanese young man to share with all of you!

Budfox:

Comment about comments:

I'm constantly amazed at how quickly a Chinese person brings up the "You are not Chinese so you don't know jack argument". My question to them is what does it take to understand a Chinese? Do you have to live in Taiwan/China for 20+ years and pay attention to the nuances of life? Do you have to speak fluent Mandarin? Do you have to have a lifelong desire to study and understand all things Chinese? Do you have to be married to a Chinese person and have kids?

Well, my Chinese friends - there are many people like this in the world. Don't always jump to conclusions that just because you are not a native, you can't possibly understand Chinese mentality. There are many of us that know what you are thinking and why. Don't always turn away from constructive dialogue. It's not a zero sum game.

Anonymous:

John Smith wrote "A couple of generations later, the people in Taiwan won't feel very Chinese, but just Taiwanese."

Taiwanese is not an ethnicity. Taiwanese is still Chinese Taiwanese. Taiwan is closer to China than Hawaii is to North America.

John Smith:

Excellent Article. The Tibet issue is really a non issue. Tibetans make up 0.5% of China's population, there're no resources in Tibet for Westerners to eye on, Tibet is internationally recognized as part of China, and Chinese people will be 100% behind China's government in keeping the nation in one piece. No matter how loud the bloody hippies scream, or western politicians try to curry favor with their constituents (Sarkozy, Hillory and McCain...), no one is really going to do anything.

Taiwan is the interesting part. A couple of generations later, the people in Taiwan won't feel very Chinese, but just Taiwanese. This will make it impossible for China to unite with Taiwan.

larry(CHN):

The mass protest on Chinese torch relay in West recently gives me such impression: they don't so much dislike us as hate our communist system. So this is a problem, many Chinese are not satisfied with it neither, the imputation and vituperation on Chinese actually harm all Chinese people with different idea at the same time, therefore the protest is so bad and less effective. At this point, personally, I think western has gotten into foolish because hatred and it’s funny at all.

Rocky:

To independence-everywhere
You are lossing it, go take a break please, lol

independence-everywhere:

INDEPENDENCE-THE-BASIC-NEED-FOR-ALL-MANKIND:

By using commonsense to think clearly then:

TIBET NATION MUST RECLAIM ITS OWN LOST INDEPENDENCE AND FREEDOM AS OBTAINED BEFORE THE INVADED CHINA ATTACKED THEM AND OCCUPIED THE TIBET SOVEREIGNED NATION!
Therefore, all Tibetans have their own right to demand and seek to reclaim their lost independence destroyed by the bloody land expansionist China communist thugs!
All Tibetans ALWAYS preferred to live in its own independent Tibet nation as before, due to Tibetans cannot accept to live in shame like 1.3 billions chinese slaves of their own communist murderous regime!
For the same token to: occupied Uighurs people, occupied Inner-Mongolians, threatened Taiwanese to seek reclaiming their lost independences for their own nations being stolen by communist blood-thirsty China!
To do this, all these people may seek the civilized peaceful VOTING PROCESSES TO SEEK AND CHOOSE INDEPENDENCE FOR THEMSELVES UNDER SUPERVIONS OF THE ENTIRE WORLD NATIONS INCLUDING UN, UNSC AND ALL INDEPENDENCE-LOVING AND PEACE-LOVING WORLD CITIZENS COMBINED!
TIBETANS, MONGOLIANS, UIGHURS, TAIWANESE CITIZENS MUST NEVER LIVE AS OCCUPIED SLAVES IN THE SHADOW OF THE EVIL, MURDEROUS, DANGEROUS CHINA AT ANY CONCEIVABLE REASONS!

INDEPENDENCE TO ALL OCCUPIED UNFORTUNATE CITIZENS IN THIS PLANET EARTH!
CHINA CANNOT DICTATE THE FAITHS OF ALL NON-CHINESE CITIZENS LIKE ITS OWN SLAVERY 1.3 BILLION CHINESE IN THE MURDEROUS MAINLAND CHINA!
(repeated)

independence-the-basic-need-for-all-mankind:

By using commonsense to think clearly then:

TIBET NATION MST RECLAIM ITS OWN INDEPENDENCE AND FREEDOM AS BEFORE THE INVADED CHINA ATTACKED HEM AND OCCUPIED THE TIBET NATION!
Therefore, all Tibetans have their own right to demand and seek to reclaim their lost independence destroyed buy the bloody land expansionist China communist thugs!

All Tibetans preferred to live in its own independent Tibet nation due to Tibetans cannot accept to live like chinese as 1.3 billions slaves of its own communist murderous regime!

For same token to: Uighurs people, Inner-Mongolians, Taiwanese to seek reclaiming lost independence for their own nations stolen by communist blood-thirsty China!

To do this, all these people should seek the civilized peaceful VOTING PROCESSES TO SEEK AND CHOOSE INDEPENDENCE FOR THEMSELVES UNDER SUPERVIONS OF THE ENTIRE WORLD NATIONS INCLUDING UN, UNSC AND ALL INDEPENDENCE-LOVING AND PEACE-LOVING WORLD CITIZENS COMBINED!

TIBETANS, MONGOLIANS, UIGHURS, TAIWANESE CITIZENS MUST NEVER LIVE AS OCCUPIED, SLAVES FOR CHINA AT ANY CONCEIVABLE REASONS!

INDEPENDENCE TO ALL OCCUPIED UNFORTUNATE CITIZENS IN THIS PLANET EARTH!
CHINA CANNOT DICTATE THE FAITHS OF ALL NON-CHINESE CITIZENS LIKE ITS OWN SLAVERY 1.3 BILLION CHINESE IN THE MURDEROUS MAINLAND CHINA!

Michael Turton:

Wow! You guys took my comments down. Unbelievable. And shameful. Here they are again, adjusted.

Let's take a look at some of the assertions in Pomfret's article First, the
background information...

+++++++++++++
The election last month of Siew and Ma Ying-jeou, the Nationalist candidate for president, in Taiwan means that after eight years of failed leadership by President Chen Shui-bian, who bungled the
island's security and its economy,
+++++++++++++

These are simply Beijing and KMT talking points. Taiwan's economy grew over 4.5% over the entire period, and outperformed S Korea's over
2004-7, growing 5.7% last year. We are now the number 2 exporter to China, passing Korea.

The real economic issue is not "the bungled economy" -- that is a gross misunderstanding -- but stagnant incomes. What actually happened
was that the KMT-controlled legislature brought government infrastructure spending to a halt. Local communities and businesses across the island felt the pinch. The KMT then blamed the DPP for
stagnant incomes. This strategy of keeping Taiwan poor to get re-elected would not have worked in a normal country, but the media is overwhelmingly pro-KMT, and thus, simply repeated the KMT line. Later this line would find its way into the international media, and of course, be repeated as part of Beijing's reading as well. The KMT also
slashed government science budgets, paralzyed several of the branches of government by defunding them or by refusing to confirm candidates,
and so on.

As for 'security' that is a total misreading. It was the KMT, not the Chen Administration, that has blocked purchases of weapons from the US throughout most of the last six years, repeatedly breaking promises made to the US on the issue. This, along with the Bush Administration's strangling of relations with Taiwan as it has
outsourced its Taiwan policy to Beijing, and Chen's own highhandedness, harmed relations between Taiwan and the US.

Moving on to the other comments:

++++++++
relations between Taipei and Beijing are likely to improve. Leaders from the two sides are finally talking about establishing direct flights. (It takes a day to get from Taipei to Shanghai, home to 250,000 businessmen, right now. If the flights were direct, it'd take an hour.)
++++++++

Direct flights were established three years ago on a charter basis during holidays. Pomfret must mean regular airline services.

+++++++++++
Pres-elect Ma has said he wants to end most restrictions on Taiwanese investment in China. (A recognition of reality considering Taiwan's
businessmen have already sunk $100 billion or so in mainland factories.)
+++++++++++

It was, of course, the DPP that opened the island to legal investment in China. It was also the DPP's wish to retain the island's manufacturing base. In placing restrictions in investment in China the DPP was doing what every single one of China's neighbors does -- ensuring that its economic independence and productivity are preserved as China rises. All of the nations around China have restrictions on investment, labor mobility, etc. The dialogue on Taiwan is so skewed, however, that only Taiwan gets lambasted for such restrictions.

+++++
So Chen resorted to a policy of what the Chinese liked to call "creeping independence" which basically meant seizing every opportunity to enrage Beijing.
++++++

This reading turns reality on its head. One of China's most effective strategies has been to not speak to the DPP. At the same time, it chooses to be "provoked" whenever Chen does something. Note that pro-independence actions by other actors do not receive the same treatment -- the Constitution has been amended more than a dozen times in the last 20 years to give the island a more efficient governance and independent governance, but China only made noises about symbolic and minor issues. The goal was to isolate Chen and paint him as a
radical -- note that Pomfret can refer to China' missiles here, but without noting that the real "radicals" are those who threaten to plunge the region into war because Taiwan wants to be a democratic and independent state. Here Pomfret simply repeats Beijing's position on Taiwan as if it were actual analysis rather than political propaganda.


+++++
go to war to defend Taiwan. This peaceful interim will also give Taiwan time to push China's political system in the right direction.
+++++

ROFL. China's leaders know this. Because of this, their number one goal is to hollow out the island's democracy. Although Pomfret does not tell the reader, Beijing and the KMT have been negotiating since the mid-1990s on just this point; indeed the CSIS reported in 2000 that it was the KMT that suggested Beijing not deal with Chen. The two sides are tightly coordinating policy -- the first act of the new KMT Chairman last April was to go to Beijing. All of this is missing in Pomfret's remarks here.

Neither the KMT nor Beijing has an interest in furthering Taiwan's democracy. Ma, who spent most of his career in opposition to democracy -- another fact left out of Pomfret's description -- is a pro-China ideologue who grew up as the standard-bearer for the Return to Zion/China theology of the KMT. The international media has
consistently ignored Ma's long career as an anti-democracy stalwart, sadly.

This suggests that rather than Taiwan changing CHina in a positive direction, it is far more likely to change Taiwan in a negative one -- because Taiwan cannot be permitted to be an object lesson for Chinese society. Indeed, Ma and other leaders have repeatedly pointed to Singapore as a model. What that suggests is chilling....

Michael Turton
*added "on holidays" to charter flights
**deleted anything that might look personal.
***have no idea how anyone could imagine I thought Ma was a Communist. He's a right-wing ideologue. Being "pro-China" is not the same as being a Communist.

meihui55:

Tibet won't move China, but Taiwan might? Economically, yes. But if we talking about something to do with "sovereignty," the answer is definitely NO.
Enhancing the economic relations between China and Taiwan is truly pragmatistic, but the relationship of the two sides can't be substantially improved if Hu Jintao is not smart enough to do the following things:

(1)Stop doing anything to downgrade Taiwan's status into a local government.
(2)Move away the 1500 missiles aimed at Taiwan.
(3)Help Taiwan enter World Health Organization.
(4)Help Taiwanese journalists obtain press accreditation to cover World Health Assembly in May of this year.

Anonymous:

Mr. Pomfret is more realistic than others in the US, but still astoundingly ideological.

For one thing, he just assumes that the USA can do what it pleases, and that everyone is at our disposal. Better rethink that in a global economy.

Such "patriotic" lies held by those in our government make outdated and even nostalgic policy, like as to Iraq; motivated by evil or stupidity, either way they are simply destroying America, not to mention Iraq, et al.

What I mean is that, for instance, the cultural revolution was not nearly as bad as our 100 years of Jim Crow, and for most of that 100 years, Mr. William Tecumseh Sherman was at the same time slaughtering the Indians in the USA. I wonder how many? What would the census have been if the Indians had not been slaughtered.

During the 1960s, I was an active participant in the Civil Rights movement, and several times in real danger. This was a vast movement for human freedom and dignity, that I am proud to have been in. YET NO COUNTRY then claimed practically that during that time we ought to have been dismembered, invaded, occupied, etc.

Its time we learned to respect others, and to pay for what we own.


If anything...:

It MAY bring in good influence, but I bet you a dollar that the Chinese influence will be dominant over the Taiwanese within 15 years.

If not, I will be happy.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

J.K. Lin:

How many wishful thinkings have to fail so people can wake up?

They were said and failed --- Open-up would change China. Trade would change China. Joining international society would change China. Economical development would change China. Middle class Chinese would change China. Olympic Games would change China ...

Now, a new wishful thinking is coming up. Taiwan may change China!

The Vice-President-Elected in Taiwan went to China under the presumption of "Taiwan is part of China". How can it change China? Are you confused between Lincoln and Hu? In China, winner does not compromise with the loser. The compromise between winner and loser is the western culture China would never understand.

Bottom line:

China wants all the land and minerals in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang. No justification required. If the Taiwanese, Tibetans and Uighurs are not happy about it, they can emigrate like so many who have done so. Period.

peace4all1:

BILL@
There are plenty of people in Quebec, Canada, calling for sovereignty of Quebec. And Canada parliament passed a law saying that they can have a referendum which clearly stated that they want to leave the country, and if they get 50%+1 vote, they can leave.
Will China do the same with Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang ?
----------------------------

It seems that Bill is only selectively using PART of Canadian history to justify his political statement. The late Canadian Prime Minster, Mr. Trudeau, from 1968 to 1984 is remembered as a fierce protector for Canadian unity against Quebec independent movement even by force when needed. It is good for Canadian that they have passed such a law after thirty more years of progress.

I’m wondering whether West is willing to give China another thirty years to make her own progress without any foreign intervention.

i can not agree with you more :

When We were called Sick man of Asia, We were called The Peril.
  When We are billed to be the next Superpower, We are called The threat.
  
  When We were closed our doors, You smuggled Drugs to Open Markets.
  When We Embrace Freed Trade, You blame us for Taking away your jobs.
  
  When We were falling apart, You marched in your troops and wanted your fair share.
  When We were putting the broken peices together again, Free Tibet you screamed, it was an invasion!
  ( When Woodrow Wilson Couldn't give back Birth Place of Confucius back to Us,
  But He did bought a ticket for the Famine Relief Ball for us.)
  
  So, We Tried Communism, You hated us for being Communists
  When We embrace Capitalism, You hate us for being Capitalist.
  
  When We have a Billion People, you said we were destroying the planet.
  When We are tried limited our numbers, you said It was human rights abuse.


When We were Poor, You think we are dogs.
  When We Loan you cash, You blame us for your debts.
  
  When We build our industries, You called us Polluters.
  When we sell you goods, You blame us for global warming.
  
  When We buy oil, You called that exploitation and Genocide.
  When You fight for oil, You called that Liberation.
  
  When We were lost in Chaos and rampage, You wanted Rules of Law for us.
  When We uphold law and order against Violence, You called that Violating
  Human Rights.
  
  When We were silent, You said you want us to have Free Speech.
  When We were silent no more, You say we were Brainwashed-Xenophoics.
  
  Why do you hate us so much? We asked.
  No, You Answered, We don't hate You.
  
  We don't Hate You either,
  But Do you understand us?
  
  Of course We do, You said,
  We have AFP, CNN and BBCs...
  
  What do you really want from us?
  Think Hard first, then Answer...
  
  Because you only get so many chances,
  Enough is Enough, Enough Hypocrisy for this one world.
  
  We want One World, One Dream, And Peace On Earth.
  - This Big Blue Earth is Big Enough for all of Us.


Voices From Maniland China:

I am living in mailand China. I am proud to to be a Chinese!
I was born in a poor family in the most poorest areas in Guangdong China.

Thanks to what you called "bloody Communist Party", i have got the chance of entering one of the best universities in Guanddong Province with my own effort.

Thanks to the "bloody communist party", i have got the chance to decide my destiny, to change my life.

You peole have never been to China, you people knows nothing about china. You are all well educated yet you are all too naive to see the truth from the fact. Stop your naive imagination!

Think about yourselves! Your happiness is based on the suffering of the Iraq people!

EJ:

When the issue of Taiwan is discussed, it seems that a lot of Chinese people are having a go at America or Europe, focussing on Hawaii, or Northern Ireland as examples to show that western people also wouldn't allow their countries to "split up".

But perhaps it is a good idea for them to look a bit further than that. Let's take a European country as an example; The Netherlands. In 1830, Belgium became separated from the Netherlands, and since it seemed to be the will of the majority of the people in Belgium, the Dutch government could do nothing but accept, and so it did. In 1945, Indonesia (where of course the Dutch no right to be to begin with) declared independence, and even in the aftermath of a war against Japan which left a lot of people in confusion, the Netherlands could eventually do nothing else but to accept this independence as well (under pressure from the UN and USA).

After the war, the last big colonial "possession" of the Netherlands, Suriname, was encouraged by the Dutch government to seek independence. After some hesitation, they finally did so in 1975. Currently, the Netherlands still incorporates some tiny islands in the Caribbean (Aruba, Curaçao, St. Martin, etc.) under its commonwealth "Kingdom of the Netherlands". These islands have their own government (only depending on the Kingdom for defence and foreign affairs), and are 100% free to make whatever decision they want about their political future and possible future independence.

The point is, the Dutch government, and many more modern western governments, have realized for at least the past 60 years, that people should be free to make their own choice in this regard. Perhaps the next time someone brings up Hawaii or Northern Ireland, they could also take the time to look at some other situations.

CNN:

I hate Americans!!! They're goons and thugs. They're rubbish!
Oh, sorry, I was just offering opinion about American journalism, especially CNN, not its people!
So please don't demand any apology from me.

A-gu:

"set up voting for obtaining independence ?

WHY DO NOT HAVE A TRY IN AMERICA OR UK?"

As an American, I would love to pass a law or amendment that made clear states could declare independence. It makes no logical sense to me that the nation can add states but no state can leave.

Anonymous:

set up voting for obtaining independence ?

WHY DO NOT HAVE A TRY IN AMERICA OR UK?

LET IRELAND HAVE A TRY FIRST!

Taiwan Media Insider:

Michael Turton is spot on in his comments (see below), which are far more enlightening that Mr. Pomfret's original article. The notion of Ma Ying-jeou or anyone else in the KMT as a stalwart of democracy is simply ludicrous. They (and, admittedly, a good number of people in the DPP too) are simply not democrats.
The KMT has been quietly coordinating its policy with Beijing for years now. Speak to any academic specializing in the China-Taiwan field, they'll confirm it.
And again, the economy here in Taiwan is anything other than stagnant. Incomes are however, but the KMT's obstructionism in the Legislature and China's "United Front" strategy bear the lion's share of the responsibility for that.
I wish people would refer to the KMT by their full English name, the CHINESE Nationalist Party. Those guys' loyalty lies on the other side of the strait rather than here in Taiwan. They wouldn't hesitate a second to curtail Taiwan's democracy if it aided their stated ultimate goal of unifying the motherland.

Independence or dependence:

There are many Tibetans and Taiwanese who actually work for a living in China, outside Tibet and Taiwan. Likewise, Taiwan's businesses have factories and offices in China as well. Taiwan has very limited diplomatic and economic links with other countries. Taiwan is now locked into a growing fatal attraction with China of which there may only be one ending worthy of Sun Tzu's Art of War, "Win without fighting".

BRAMBLES:

@ LUO GE:
>>Why do so many mainland Chinese get offensive towards anybody who expresses an opinion different from that of the modern Chinese Emperors? (End of Quote)

Please, you have asked the question, Think for yourself and find the answer. Either there's sth terribly/totally wrong with "so many" mainland Chinese. Or you are.

We trust that you are intelligent enough to do that. Also, you must do that by yourself. Unlike you, we know when to be humble so we wont try to TEACH you.

Be patient.

independence-everywhere:

It is very fair and civilized way for any people that want to seek independence for their people, then they can set up voting for obtaining independence when at least more than 50% population agreed to choose independence to stay away from the occupied central goverment!

THIS CIVILIZED PRINCIPLE CAN NOW APPLY IN TIBET, IN UIGHUR, IN, INNER-MONGOLIA, IN TAIWAN, IN ANY PROVINCES OF CHINA SUCH AS MACAU, HONGKONG, HAINAM ISLAND TO LET THESE PEOPLE TO HAVE NEW LIFE AND NEW INDEPENDENT NATIONS! AND WON'T BE HARMED BY CHINA ANYMORE!

Independence is the most valuable property that all human-beings must demand and fight for at all means!!!!

independence-to-all:

Let say:

In Tibet if after voting more than 50% population want to see Tibet to become independent from China then it is free to declare independence for Tibet as a independent ans sovereigned nation!
Same token with Uighur and Inner-Mongolia, and Taiwan!

sandysunny:

LUO GE:
Don't label mainland Chinese as the government follower, I am voicing my thought. Do you want to know what the people think here, as you have said "Legitimate government comes only from the will of the people being governed, " Come to China and listen to the people here if you want to talk about China, if you only want to follow your imagination to judge what's the will of the Chinese people, you are not legitimated to discuss anything related to China.

Luo Ge:

Why do so many mainland Chinese get offensive towards anybody who expresses an opinion different from that of the modern Chinese Emperors? If some says that Tibetans should be free to choose their own destiny, they start ranting about America's sins in Iraq, or independence for Hawaii of some other such irrelevant nonsense. The rest of the world are not all Americans. Just because American did something stupid in Iraq it is not an excuse for China to maintain its imperial domination of Tibet, or of anybody else. Legitimate government comes only from the will of the people being governed, not from legalistic arguments of those doing the governing.

sandysunny:

I am a mainland Chinese. I don't care wether they want to claim independent or not. But A LOT OF PEOPLE OTHER THAN ME wont let that happen, they have the right to say so. Just like you and your government have the right to judge which government is evil, which country is democratic. so what's the solution? War? Like what happened in Iraq? NO, I don't like war, and I don't think people in Tibet and Taiwan don't like war either. It's too cruel, today in the news i saw your army killed dozens of Iraq people. It's horrible, you know, like you hypos in the US, they are also humanbeings, not some invisible dirt! But they don't know how long their lives will last, just because your government think their former peaceful life is worthless. Isn't it a IRONY?

JD:

Michael Turton,

As a foreigner living in Taiwan, it seems like the only friends you've made over there are all DPP loyalists. I say that because your comments make it sound like they've totally spoon fed you all their viewpoints which you've very articulately regurgitated here. I suggest that you talk with a few people sympathetic to the KMT to get their side of things. Labeling Ma as a "closet" communist is just paranoid rubbish. You should know better than that.

- JD (Taiwanese living in the U.S.)

Ed:

I want to correct one mistake in my comments. I intended to write the people of Taiwan are Chinese and Taiwanese.

The Kangxi emperor ordered Qing forces to invade Taiwan, primarily because anti-Qing rebels were based there. Many Chinese settlers moved to Taiwan. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese Nationalist forces and their families moved to Taiwan after it was clear the Nationalists had lost the civil war. However, there are also millions of people living in Taiwan who are descendants of the original inhabitants there.

Ed:


I think it is naive to think Taiwan will lead China into becoming a democracy. Any significant political changes in China will come from within, by the Chinese. To think they will adopt "democratic" political characteristics from foreign influence is condescending and quite unlikely.

The people of Taiwan should ultimately decide whether they want to maintain the ambiguous status quo, preferred by United States presidents since Nixon, or reunite with China. However, Taiwan should return control of disputed islands to China, at least a couple are only several miles from the Chinese coastline.

The people of China are Chinese and Taiwanese. Taiwan should return to China the cultural treasures, from native Chinese and alien dynasties that controlled China, the Nationalist forces took from China when they lost the civil war and fled to the island. Returning sovereignty of these islands to China and major Chinese cultural treasures would be significant good-will, as well as confidence building steps.

Bill:

"China's last Emperor was Mao Tse Tsung."

No, the last one was Jiang Zemin. The current one is Hu Jintao. The one before Jiang was Deng, and then Hua.

Deng picked Jiang and Hu as his successors before he abdicated. This was just like the Tang, Yue, Xia era - the Emperor picks his successors, until some one pick his own son as successor, the rest is history.

Xi, son of a top official, will be the next one after Hu. May be Xi will pick his son or grandson as successor.

Bill:

There are plenty of people in Quebec, Canada, calling for sovereignty of Quebec. And Canada parliament passed a law saying that they can have a referendum which clearly stated that they want to leave the country, and if they get 50%+1 vote, they can leave.

Will China do the same with Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang ?

It's too late for Mongolia. They left, and the government of China agreed with it. And Chinese are really happy if they have a referendum to rejoin China, but Chinese won't want to have a referendum for Taiwan to leave. This must be logic with Chinese characteristics.

investorblogger:

The other thing is appalling (and in this thread)is the lack of knowledge in China about how Taiwan's political system emerged, and it's close relationship with China's own history...

Most posters don't see the historical connection that the government here was a kind of government in exile (from the mainland)... they brought with them the entire structure of the govt. and continued it here on Taiwan.

The closest parallel we have is that of East Germany vs. West Germany. That's