Paris, France - Lebanon's problem is that its political system is based on sectarian affiliations. On the positive side it obliges the three dominant communities (Christians, Shi'as and Sunnis) to compromise. It also preserves the religiously neutral nature of the Lebanese state. On the negative side it prevents real democracy with "one man, one vote" from taking place.
A genuine democratization process would make Hezbollah the dominant political actor in Lebanon. The country will probably turn into a Malaysian style polity: an Islamic state where religious minorities will enjoy strong autonomy. This will re-enforce the "Shia Crescent" in the Middle East carrying two possible consequences. If relative stability is achieved between Israel and Lebanon, the Shia-Sunni divide will widen. If war continues, then Iran will become stronger and will cause Sunni Arab conservative regimes to be bypassed and Iran will call directly to "Arab Street."
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