Olivier Roy at PostGlobal

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). He currently lectures at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) in Paris and has acted as consultant to the French Foreign Ministry (Center for Analysis and Forecast) since 1984. Olivier Roy was also a consultant with UNOCA on Afghanistan in 1988, special OSCE representative to Tajikistan (August 1993 to February 1994) and headed the OSCE Mission for Tajikistan from February to October 1994. He is also the author of Globalized Islam, published by Columbia University Press. Close.

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). more »

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Lebanon May Mirror Malaysia

Paris, France - Lebanon's problem is that its political system is based on sectarian affiliations. On the positive side it obliges the three dominant communities (Christians, Shi'as and Sunnis) to compromise. It also preserves the religiously neutral nature of the Lebanese state. On the negative side it prevents real democracy with "one man, one vote" from taking place.

A genuine democratization process would make Hezbollah the dominant political actor in Lebanon. The country will probably turn into a Malaysian style polity: an Islamic state where religious minorities will enjoy strong autonomy. This will re-enforce the "Shia Crescent" in the Middle East carrying two possible consequences. If relative stability is achieved between Israel and Lebanon, the Shia-Sunni divide will widen. If war continues, then Iran will become stronger and will cause Sunni Arab conservative regimes to be bypassed and Iran will call directly to "Arab Street."

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POSTED August 7, 2006 10:05 AM

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