Olivier Roy at PostGlobal

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). He currently lectures at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) in Paris and has acted as consultant to the French Foreign Ministry (Center for Analysis and Forecast) since 1984. Olivier Roy was also a consultant with UNOCA on Afghanistan in 1988, special OSCE representative to Tajikistan (August 1993 to February 1994) and headed the OSCE Mission for Tajikistan from February to October 1994. He is also the author of Globalized Islam, published by Columbia University Press. Close.

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). more »

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Shortsighted Strategies

Paris, France -- The problem is that none of the present actors in the Middle East have a coherent, long-term and positive strategy for achieving peace. Determination to use or resist violence is a motto, not a political program.

Israel, by choosing the heavy hand, wants to deter Hamas and Hezbollah from resorting to violence, but it does not offer them a clear political program. It can neither destroy Hamas and Hezbollah nor put enough pressure on their Syrian patrons to wither them.

Hamas went too far but has no way to step back because of the quasi collapse of its political leadership. So Hezbollah is happily back at the center of Lebanese politics, after having been sidestepped for its support for Syria. Damascus is playing on brinkmanship because it has nothing to lose and is convinced that Israel will never dare to topple the regime, fearing that it would be succeeded by the Muslim Brothers. Iran just wishes for increased Middle East tensions to show the West what an oil crisis would feel like and to so deter a U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities. And as usual the Lebanese pay for the others.

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