Olivier Roy at PostGlobal

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). He currently lectures at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) in Paris and has acted as consultant to the French Foreign Ministry (Center for Analysis and Forecast) since 1984. Olivier Roy was also a consultant with UNOCA on Afghanistan in 1988, special OSCE representative to Tajikistan (August 1993 to February 1994) and headed the OSCE Mission for Tajikistan from February to October 1994. He is also the author of Globalized Islam, published by Columbia University Press. Close.

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). more »

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Regional Powers Cannot Achieve Victory

Paris, France - The war is making the world more dangerous because no protagonist will achieve any of its goals. Moreover, each might be tempted, at worst, to extend the war or at best to achieve a temporary peace agreement in order to prepare for future battles.

Israel wants to destroy Hezbollah but cannot do it by the sheer use of force. It could be done only through building a coalition with Sunni and Christian Arabs who resent the highjacking of Lebanon's future by Hezbollah. But by bombing the whole of Lebanon, Israel has jeopardized any chance of finding political allies in the area.

For Hezbollah, just to resist an Israeli offensive is already a victory and any political agreement will convince it that military might is the only way to force Israel to negotiate. Finally the two Hezbollah sponsors, Syria and Iran, see their position being strengthened by the present fighting. Any endeavor by the USA or Israel to get at them will by definition extend the crisis and fuse all the conflicts together, from Afghanistan to Lebanon, throughout Iraq and the Gulf.

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