Olivier Roy at PostGlobal

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). He currently lectures at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques (IEP) in Paris and has acted as consultant to the French Foreign Ministry (Center for Analysis and Forecast) since 1984. Olivier Roy was also a consultant with UNOCA on Afghanistan in 1988, special OSCE representative to Tajikistan (August 1993 to February 1994) and headed the OSCE Mission for Tajikistan from February to October 1994. He is also the author of Globalized Islam, published by Columbia University Press. Close.

Olivier Roy

Paris, France

Olivier Roy is a senior researcher at the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research). more »

Main Page | Olivier Roy Archives | PostGlobal Archives


Democracy Takes Time

Paris, France -- The war in Iraq shows us, in retrospect, that the USA was right not to intervene in the Hungarian upheaval of 1956. It would have unleashed a bloody and protracted war in Europe, even if it ended...

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Capitalist:

What is wrong with these Washington Post
"experts" that don't seem to know what the heck they are talking about? Two out of the three didn't seem to even understand that a domestic democratic revolution in Hungary was crushed by the invasion of another state.

The equivalent today would have been if the Orange revolution in Ukraine had happened and then an invasion by China had overthown the new government and replaced it with a communist dictatorship.

There is precious little difference with that scenerio than there is with the USSR invading the nation of Hungary to overthrow the new government created by the 1956 revolution.

So my question is what is wrong with the Washington Post? Both Oliver Roy and Daoud Kuttab either demonstrated an astonishing ignorance of the subject or else used the old politicians trick of ignoring the question in favor of making a statement on an unrelated subject that is dearer to their heart.

In this case, both Roy and Kuttab took the opportunity to zing the U.S. over Iraq as opposed to addressing the question at hand.

If there is a lesson to be drawn in Iraq vis a vis Hungary then it is that the U.S. should just carpet bomb the Sunni areas of the country until they cease their opposition then install a military dictatorship to keep the country in line.

Using artillery and tanks, and lots of bullets instead of carpet bombing, that is basically what the Soviets did and it gave them a friendly government that lasted another 30 years.

Bill Riley:

The USA made a mistake in 1956, and leading up to that point. OuR RFE and VOA broadcasts were encouraging democratic tendencies in the satellite nations - suggesting American support - when there was no way we could have done so. USSR had more tanks than any other country and we relied on nuclear deterrence. There was no common boder for us to cross. How could we have possibly airlifted enough troops, tanks and heavy artillery? The resources and airlift capacity simply did not exist. We would first have had to plow our way through Communist Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia and neutral Austria. The Berlin Airlift is not an apt comparison - we were flying into friendly airfields [West Berlin], and not a shot was fired. Plus, why is no one mentioning what was going on in Poland the same year. The tragedy was that we led the Hungarians to believe more help would be forthcoming than was in any way realistically possible in terms of military and geopolitical considerations.

Ryan:

" In all fairness though, Eisenhower probably had a teetime to meet."

Yes, clearly the lack of U.S. intervention was due to golf. The thought that perhaps there were other factors, and issues being considered is clearly absurd.

It seems so easy for you all to pass judgement on why people acted (or failed to act) the way they did, but this could not have been an easy decision for a president to make. And no matter the choice he would have made, you would all still be here criticizing him and/or the US as a whole.

Nadia . M Ramasawmy:

I think that the comment shows superficiality and lack of basic of knowledge

Hungary in 1956 as well as Czechoslovakia in 1968 were going towards a "domestic political process" to restore democracy and to liberate the country of an unwanted foreign occupation. Moreover, during the time between the two world wars (until the mid thirties) Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia were democracies.

You may not compare today's war in Irak with Hungary in 1956 but you may draw a similar comparison between the Hungarian revolt and the Kurdish upheaval in Irak in the first Gulf war.

The Soviet Block could not have collapsed in 1989 without the millions who fought and opposed communism from 1947 to 1989. They opposed a FOREIGH IMPOSED DICTATORSHIP, MARIONETTE GOVERNMENTS, AND THE OBLIVION OF WHAT MEANS TO LIVE IN DEMOCRACY. And they paid with their life for this.

In 1989, during the anti-communist upheaval in Romania more than 2000 people died in a time interval of less than ten days. Many of those people were Romanians fighting for freedom, a few were foreign journalists covering the events.

But according to Oliver Roy "the whole Soviet block collapsed from inside without any bloodshed".

The statement obliterates and insults the memory of this people.

Robert Smith:

My family had lived in Hungary since time immemorable. My grandparents and mother witnessed the Revolution firsthand, and then fled to Canada. Therefore, I believe that my opinion on this subject has a great deal of validity.

The US wouldn't have interevened in Hungary because the Suez Crisis was happening at the same time. In addition to this a confidential policy document drawn up in July 1956 explained that the US would not go to war to free the Eastern European satellites.

Regardless of these technicalities, Mr. Roy's opinion is wrong. NATO intervention in Hungary would not have been intended to spread democracy but to preserve a democracy. The Hungarian leader Imre Nagy, a reformer within the Communist Party, announced that he was forming a multiparty government. This was supported by popular support from all across the country, the least of which was the crowd which tore down Stalin's statue. This popular uprising was crushed by ruthless Soviet intervention aimed at keeping the status quo. Nagy himself was executed.

Your assertion that intervention would have unleashed war in Europe is a valid enough counterfactual, but your quote that "The lesson to be learnt is that democratisation cannot be forced upon a country," is totally out of context. Hungary was democratising itself and was left out to dry by the beacon of freedom and democracy. In all fairness though, Eisenhower probably had a teetime to meet.

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