The Current Discussion: American newspapers are in dire financial straits. How are newspapers faring where you are? Are you concerned about the future of journalism in America or in your own country? What does that future look like?

It appears almost certain that paper will not figure in the future of newspapers. The logic is indisputable: newspapers are hugely expensive, demanding great investment in editorial salaries and services, printing plants and distribution networks; their revenues come from sales (newsstands and subscriptions), advertising and support/subsidies from various other sources, whether private or public. If newspapers go electronic, only the editorial costs need be maintained, with production and distribution costs disappearing overnight; this need not disrupt any of the revenue sources, although so far these are much smaller with regard to print editions' sliding revenues.

So the future is electronic. But we already have newspapers online, both as partners to print editions and flying solo. And yet it is difficult to guess what the future will look like, because the news industry finds itself in a fog of developments that do not allow anyone to know what obstacles still lie ahead and what we will see on the horizon - and when. The fog is made up of the huge variety of news sites on the Internet today and the factors that will influence the direction in which they will go. So the best we can do is make educated guesses.

Here's mine. I believe that we already have a pretty good idea of what "newspapers" will look like when they are exclusively electronic: we see them every day in a variety of forms on the Internet. We will know for sure only when those that cannot adapt successfully are out of the way, exhausted by a lack of revenues, leaving fewer news sites to forge a more lasting relationship with readers and advertisers.

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