Sure, it’s a relief to see President Bush squirm this time around. But I feel uneasy whenever a conclusion that is not based on absolutely reliable data happens to coincide with the conclusion its authors need to make. We saw the result of a falsely positive assessment in 2003; we should not be happy if the assessment of 2007 is formulated from data that is incomplete. The intelligence community should continue to treat the issue as being wide open - as it will do, of course. So I would see the intelligence assessment as one step on the long journey of U.S. relations with Iran. (Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s triumphal acceptance of the U.S. intelligence assessment as justification for Iran’s position adds another dimension to the surreal aspect of the story and the way in which each side exploits every opportunity to back up its preordained position.)

That said, anything that puts a damper on the rush to war against Iran can only be positive. It has been evident for years that Washington and Tehran need to talk to each other. The United States cannot afford to shore up the credibility of Ahmadinejad and other reactionary forces by intervening in Iran. And the Iranian leadership cannot afford to jeopardize its people’s progress through an unnecessary confrontation with the rest of the world. If the latest intelligence assessment provides the opportunity for the two sides to meet in a diplomatic no-man’s land, it will turn out to be far more valuable than any other service the intelligence community could provide.