Athens, Greece - If a multinational force cannot be established in Iraq, the United States might have to increase its number of troops there.
This is the point where analogies between Iraq and Vietnam end. There is no unified military and no political force ready to establish security if the U.S. forces suddenly pull out. When guerrillas are destroying every effort at reconstruction, when militias slaughter members of rival ethnic groups, and when the country heads for fragmentation, any pullout of troops would be a shocking abdication of the responsibility that America took upon itself when it invaded Iraq. It will leave the country in a far worse state than it found it. This is not an option either for the United States, whose reputation will never recover, or for Iraq, which will be condemned to live with the consequences.
Perhaps the most hopeful aspect of the situation is that an Iraq that is left to collapse upon itself is not an option for any of its neighbors either. They may all want to influence events directly or through proxies but none want to see chaos which will jeopardize their own interests and security.
So, now that the Democratic triumph in Congress has offered President George W. Bush a face-saving opportunity to change tactics, it is time for a more wholehearted effort to combine a political solution with a renewed military strategy. This can only be done if the greatest number of Iraqi groups, foreign countries and international organizations can be engaged in the effort to pacify and reconstruct Iraq while providing security for the country's people to take control of their own fate.
All of Iraq's neighbors, without exception, must be brought on board. They all understand that a stable Iraq will be in their best interests. It would be self-defeating to leave the United States out on a limb. Closing the channels between neighboring countries, the insurgents and the militias in Iraq could be the most important step in quelling the violence. This will send a message to the protagonists that there is no further point in fighting. At the same time, a renewed effort to engage all groups in Iraq, without exception, could have immediate results. Any groups that decided to go on fighting would find themselves isolated by a community exhausted by the violence.
The United States would not need to increase its troop levels in Iraq. The violence would have died down substantially -- and this would also make it more likely for an Arab or Muslim multinational peacekeeping force (perhaps under the UN flag) to deploy in the country. Given regional sensitivities, it would be best if neighboring countries did not contribute to such a force. However, if a multinational force cannot be established, the United States might have to think about increasing the number of troops it has in Iraq in order to give the Iraqis the stability needed to allow the renewed political and diplomatic efforts to succeed.
The United States made unbelievable mistakes in its Iraqi misadventure. It now has to solve the problem that it created. But Iraq is too important to be left alone by the rest of the region and by the international community in misguided retribution against the United States.
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