By Ibsen Martínez
*Editor's Note: Martinez has posted a response to reader comments after his article text, below.*
As narrow as Hugo Chavez’s defeat might seem from afar, December 2nd will be inscribed in Venezuelan history as the day Chavez’s schemes to turn Latin America’s longest-living democracy into a totalitarian, one-party autocracy were arrested by ballots, not bullets. His rhetoric during the final, hectic days of the campaign hinted at a violent dénouement.
But the heaviest blow to Chávez is the undeclared war of succession that broke out among the chavista leadership the minute he conceded defeat. In that sense, the real referendum on his and his party’s leadership is yet to be fought. Next year, a succession of popular referenda could be called in every state. Many chavista governors will then be challenged by a newly-energized opposition movement and, for all his charisma, Chávez and his cronies might not have enough support to win.
“The outcome is a stunning development in a country where Mr. Chávez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power,” reported New York Times correspondent Simon Romero.
In my view, yesterday’s outcome can only astound those who completely ignore Venezuela’s twentieth-century history. You could say that our last century’s history has been that of a long march towards democracy. There’s no question that there were errors along the way, and it’s certainly still open to discussion whether our former bipartisan representative democracy disappointed the poor. But the fact remains that although Venezuelans might well be inclined to support populist politics, they abhor the idea of living indefinitely under one-man rule.
Radical-left politics have always been a small intellectual elite’s affair in our country. Chávez’s ill-conceived reform bill, largely copied from the Cuban constitution, would have abolished presidential term limits, and allowed the President to declare states of emergency for an unlimited time. He would have been able to suspend human rights guarantees during those states of emergency. The bill would have allowed him to create a new political division in the country by adding new states to the map, where he would have had the legal authority to appoint new governors and mayors.
As to the right to run for indefinitely recurring re-elections, no doubt the most controversial chapter of Chávez’s bill, it concerned and benefited only the incumbent president. No state governor or city mayor would have enjoyed such privilege. By increasing the state’s role in the economy, Chávez would have been authorized to draw from the Central Bank reserves at will.
This election suggests just how much his legendary charisma has waned among the Venezuelan poor. He won more than seven million votes in the December, 2006 presidential elections, but almost four million “faithful” voters deserted him this time. The reason for this, no doubt, has a lot to do with “the paradox of plenty” typical of a petro-state, where it is easier to get a bottle of premium scotch at the local grocery than to buy basic goods such as milk, eggs, black beans and corn flour.
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