« Previous Post | Next Post »

Panelist View

Commandante Loses to Ballots, Not Bullets

By Ibsen Martínez

*Editor's Note: Martinez has posted a response to reader comments after his article text, below.*

As narrow as Hugo Chavez’s defeat might seem from afar, December 2nd will be inscribed in Venezuelan history as the day Chavez’s schemes to turn Latin America’s longest-living democracy into a totalitarian, one-party autocracy were arrested by ballots, not bullets. His rhetoric during the final, hectic days of the campaign hinted at a violent dénouement.

But the heaviest blow to Chávez is the undeclared war of succession that broke out among the chavista leadership the minute he conceded defeat. In that sense, the real referendum on his and his party’s leadership is yet to be fought. Next year, a succession of popular referenda could be called in every state. Many chavista governors will then be challenged by a newly-energized opposition movement and, for all his charisma, Chávez and his cronies might not have enough support to win.

“The outcome is a stunning development in a country where Mr. Chávez and his supporters control nearly all of the levers of power,” reported New York Times correspondent Simon Romero.

In my view, yesterday’s outcome can only astound those who completely ignore Venezuela’s twentieth-century history. You could say that our last century’s history has been that of a long march towards democracy. There’s no question that there were errors along the way, and it’s certainly still open to discussion whether our former bipartisan representative democracy disappointed the poor. But the fact remains that although Venezuelans might well be inclined to support populist politics, they abhor the idea of living indefinitely under one-man rule.

Radical-left politics have always been a small intellectual elite’s affair in our country. Chávez’s ill-conceived reform bill, largely copied from the Cuban constitution, would have abolished presidential term limits, and allowed the President to declare states of emergency for an unlimited time. He would have been able to suspend human rights guarantees during those states of emergency. The bill would have allowed him to create a new political division in the country by adding new states to the map, where he would have had the legal authority to appoint new governors and mayors.

As to the right to run for indefinitely recurring re-elections, no doubt the most controversial chapter of Chávez’s bill, it concerned and benefited only the incumbent president. No state governor or city mayor would have enjoyed such privilege. By increasing the state’s role in the economy, Chávez would have been authorized to draw from the Central Bank reserves at will.

This election suggests just how much his legendary charisma has waned among the Venezuelan poor. He won more than seven million votes in the December, 2006 presidential elections, but almost four million “faithful” voters deserted him this time. The reason for this, no doubt, has a lot to do with “the paradox of plenty” typical of a petro-state, where it is easier to get a bottle of premium scotch at the local grocery than to buy basic goods such as milk, eggs, black beans and corn flour.

The low turnout in poorer urban neighborhoods, where support for Mr. Chávez should have been strong, is also quite telling. Many people in Venezuela’s slums resent the obscene and shocking corruption of the government’s high-ranking officials.

At the same time, Chávez social programs, the favorites of Chavez’s left-leaning First World’s sympathizers, have long ceased to be a political clientele machine and have increasingly become the centrepiece of corrupt deals. That’s apparent in the choices of former social activists who, resentful of Chavez’s corruption and his neglect of his presidential duties, joined the opposition campaign several months ago. As one such woman in the city of Maracay told me, “He wastes a lot of time travelling around the world, giving our money away. He’s not tending to his store back home.” (Pasa mucho tiempo viajando por el mundo, regalando dinero por ahí, y no atiende el negocio en casa.”)

“He’s done a lot of deeds for us poor”, says Cayetano Espinosa, a 63-year-old retired policeman turned street vendor in Carrizales, a populous poor neighborhood in the outskirts of Caracas. “But then you have to be a chavista poor and wear a red T-shirt all the time if you want to get something to move forward with.”

Sunday was indeed an historic moment in Venezuela's democratic history, and it set the stage for an even more widespread battle in elections next year. In the meantime, Chavez had better stop trying to lead the world’s anti-globalization movement and tend to his own store for a while.

Response to reader Tom Miller's comments:
You are right on the mark, Tom. The Electoral Council time and again postponed announcing the results of the polls, possibly trying to tamper with the results behind closed doors. But a gathering of high-ranking military and government officials, and part of the leadership of his own coalition, reportedly talked a haughty Chávez into publicly accepting his bill's defeat.
This is a well-known and sufficiently documented fact, known to both chavistas and anti-chavista Venezuelan journalists. So thanks for rebuking the intimation made by some bloggers that Mr. Chávez is a diehard democrat. During his announcement, he behaved as though he would forgive his challengers just this once. He reluctantly conceded defeat and just could not refrain from threatening the opposition with going ahead full-speed with his plan for "21st-Century Socialism" (whatever that means!), by way of the Special Powers Act approved last year by his one-party Assembly.


Ibsen Martínez is a Venezuelan playwright and novelist, and a PostGlobal panelist. Based in Caracas, he is a regular contributor to a number of newspapers, magazines and websites in both Spanish and English. He writes a weekly column for the Caracas daily "Tal Cual." Spanish language newspapers such as Madrid's "El País" and "ABC" as well as Buenos Aires's "La Nación" run his articles on a regular basis. Read more from Ibsen Martinez.

Email This Post | Del.icio.us | Digg | Facebook

Please e-mail PostGlobal if you'd like to receive an email notification when PostGlobal sends out a new question.

Comments (36)

Tere Romero:

I don`t know if this results are the beginning of the end of Chavez because he has demostrated throught the years a great capacity for manipulating many who see in him the only way out of the traditional romantic enemies of the good and the poor, but he is not a forever man like Fidel. That can be seen after the 2D

Mario:

Chavez is a dreamer; I guess anybody can be generous with the country’s wealth. Why is this president “Chavez” giving away the Venezuelans wealth? This man is a totalitarian and a power monger; it is not difficult to see how he wants to influence other countries to follow this failed politics. As a Bolivian citizen I am happy to see that this dictator will have to pay more attention to his own people “the Venezuelans”, instead of interfering in other country’s affairs, such as indoctrinating the indigenous people in Bolivia and spending Venezuela’s oil money in pursue of his socialistic utopia and his expansionist international agenda.
Venezuelans, very well done, I salute you for your courage.

dwight:

people will begin to dissappear a new vote will be scheduled, his resolutions will be passed because he is a dictator, the only law is his law.

dwight:

people will begin to dissappear a new vote will be scheduled, his resolutions will be passed because he is a dictator, the only law is his law.

dlanng:

I suspect the low voter turnout among Chavistas was that their choice would be recorded. Castro is nothing without Soviet era subsidies. Chavez is nothing without high oil prices.

Ramon Khalona:

I am as happy as anyone about the Venezuelan people's rejection of Chavez's attempts at having unchecked power, but to those who think Chavez is done, they should think again. He has plenty of means at his disposal to continue his attempts at having more power than he already has. What is needed now is to strengthen the unity against him this result has brought about. If history is any guide, he won't give up so easily.

FedUp1:

My contribution regards the position of blind support the US left has taken in regard to Chavez.

I have been exchanging comments on other boards in regard to Chavez and his plan to secure his authoritarian hold of power through the amendments to the constitution proposed in the referendum by himself and the Venezuelan National Assembly which he controls.

I read the amendments very carefully and emitted my opinions based on my study. I was also able to discern, after a few minutes' study, that the famous CIA memorandum which was unveiled at the lat moment before the referendum, was totally false, a fabrication worthy of Karl Rove and the SwiftBoaters.

But the US left, to which I thought I belonged, cannot bear objectivity when it concerns Chavez.
Ignorant of the present conditions in Venezuela, and unable to read the texts of blocks A and B of the referendum because they do not know Spanish, they have rained insults on me.

After the referendum, I have been pleased to see that the student sector, which was the motor for the mobilization against Chavez' proposed reforms, has adopted a mature stance, proposing a continued struggle against poverty, corruption, and violence.

I think good days are ahead for Venezuela and I hope the US left learns to be objective instead of being irrationally and emotionally committed to following a man they know so little about.

James:

Cam, who posted at 12:10, has asked the right questions. Sadly, the verdict on the signficance of this election is still out. Let's all hope the country does not slip slowly into a Leninist-Pol Pot kind of a revolutionary vanguard society.

James:

Cam, who posted at 12:10, has asked the right questions. Sadly, the verdict on the signficance of this election is still out. Let's all hope the country does not slip slowly into a Leninist-Pol Pot kind of a revolutionary vanguard society.

Marco:

Mayao you must be kidding when you applaud what Castro has done for his people. I will take freedom over that kind of "utopia" any day. I think all the folks risking their lives on rafts to get to the US agree with me. When Castro does die and he will sooner or later the truth of what he has done for his people will come out and I hope you are ready to defend him then...

Anonymous:

My suggestion is that the opposition to Chavez agree on a program to help the poor that is even better than the one Chavez has.

If the opposition can guarantee a free college education for all, subsidized essentials, free medical care, and all the other things helping the poor and even deliver the goods more effectively, they should feel good about their prospects.

Chavez's only claim to fame was that he brought home the bacon. If he is failing, then the opposition should do it better.

Pilar:

Long live a FREE AND DEMOCRATIC VENEZUELA. From what we are reading from other sources, the NO won by a larger margin than has been posted. The issue at hand was preventing a blood bath, when el llanero was adamant and did not want to admit defeat and to apease him, the margin was announced as lowered. Hence the delays in announcing that the NO had won; it took many hours and people to convince him to accept defeat. He has indicated that he will continue with his nefarious plan, but the Venezuelan people have shown him what they are made of and how much they value DEMOCRACY. The have a leader,and Chavez a credible and strong opponent: retired General Baduel, who was key in the negotiations. Perhaps now, Chavez will stop interfering in the affairs of other countries by using the money that rightfully belongs to the venezuelans, in his quest to create havoc in the region spreading the communist ideology of his idol Castro. As I said before, LONG LIVE A FREE AND DEMOCRATIC VENEZUELA!!!!!!!!!!!

maya0:

Viva Chavez
Chavez has shown that democracy is alive and well in his country. What many fail to understand or want to ignore is the bloody histroy of the US involvement in all of Latin America which has produced the likes of a Chavez and all of us who support him. He may not be perfect but hes has done more for the poor of his country than any other leader in latin america except for Castro. No matter how many people bash Chavez and Castro, what they are doing for their poor is light years from what any other leader in Latin America has done. That is a fact, no amount of lies dished out by anti Chavez people will ever turn that fact around.

Miguel Santeliz:

To Mr wolfram 1
Our former bipartisan representative democracy disappointed everybody, not just the poor.But Chavez represents everything bad of the so called fourth republic with a vengeance. That he has given a lot to the poor? Well, AD and COPEI had social programs too.

Eli Bravo:

There´s one thing called rhetoric, and other called reality. Chavez went through a "reality check", the moment went the Real Venezuela decided to think with their minds in the future and not just in the immediate welfare. Let´s see how he manages the "damages assessment" because he might charge again with a populist "heart and soul" campaign to win back his supporters, something that might be more disastrous to the local economy.

Eli Bravo:

There´s one thing called rhetoric, and other called reality. Chavez went through a "reality check", the moment went the Real Venezuela decided to think with their minds in the future and not just in the immediate welfare. Let´s see how he manages the "damages assessment" because he might charge again with a populist "heart and soul" campaign to win back his supporters, something that might be more disastrous to the local economy.

Tom Miller:

Kudos to the people of Venezuela who saw through the thinly disguised buffoonery of Chavezian politics and his non-subtle attempt to make himself dictator for life.

I also have to state that I'm amused at how many apologists for Chavez give him credit that he accepted the results. Could it be that Mr. Chavez is feeling the heat of his military opposition and might actually have to behave this time as if he weren't a dictator? :)

Everytime I hear Chavez speak I think of the old Franklin saying that "A fool and his money are soon parted". I hope for the sake of the Venezuelan people that they, unlike most modern day oil rich countries actually benefit from their resources and don't squander their future on power-mad dictators like Chavez.

It took guts and drive for the opposition to win on Sunday against a government controlled press, free hand-outs to voters, and a leader who ran a compaign that demonized the irrelevant to obscure his evil intent. The Venezuelans didn't buy it and neither will the rest of the world.

Good luck Venezuela. You deserve much better than Chavez.

christian h.:

It's a sight to see, Martinez torturing the facts (there was a free vote, the opposition won, the government accepted the result) to conform to his deluded preconceptions ("totalitarian dictatorship"). Martinez outs himself as the elitist he is when he calls the former Venezuelan oligarchy a "two-party democracy". The poor? Of no consequence to Mr. Martinez and his rich friends.

Bluetoo:

Venezuelan people to el presidente Chavez: "?Por que no te callas?"

I have a feeling that Spanish King Juan Carlos's line sank deep into the Venezuelan psyche and made many realize what a fool the man has become.

ClaudeM:

Hurrah for the Venezuelan people! Now the democratic moderates need to work day and night to target regional Chavistas and elect strong moderate candidates in the next elections. As a retired American with no financial interest anywhere in S. America, I urge the people to create and support greater investment by others around the world in Venezuela. The "oil rich" countries have rivers of $100 oil profits floating around the world seeking a reasonable return. That money can create jobs, build infrastructure that will support families, schools and the justice system. Chavez must not be allowed further incursion in the peoples rights to prosperity by expropriation of the investments of others.

ClaudeM:

Hurrah for the Venezuelan people! Now the democratic moderates need to work day and night to target regional Chavistas and elect strong moderate candidates in the next elections. As a retired American with no financial interest anywhere in S. America, I urge the people to create and support greater investment by others around the world in Venezuela. The "oil rich" countries have rivers of $100 oil profits floating around the world seeking a reasonable return. That money can create jobs, build infrastructure that will support families, schools and the justice system. Chavez must not be allowed further incursion in the peoples rights to prosperity by expropriation of the investments of others.

wolfram1:

On what planet has Mr. Martinez been living? His grasp of the paramount issue of life in Venezuela is eloquently expressed in the phrase: "It’s certainly still open to discussion whether our former bipartisan representative democracy disappointed the poor."
Such a discussion could take place, I believe, only between Mr. Martinez, the Red Queen and the Mad Hatter.

Manuel G:

It irritates me to see how some people in the US say that they're Chavez' supporters (hello Mr. Carr) when most-likely they've never lived in Venezuela. Have you read Mrs Quintero's commments? This man gives money away to other countries, to buy their approval, while people -normal people- can't find milk in the supermarkets. When people are fired from their jobs because they don't wear his party's color. Sorry, I'm no Bush-lover by any means, but saying that him and Chavez are the same is nonsense. At least Bush went to college. Have you heard Chavez talk? He is a megalomaniac who uses "bread and circus" to control the unsuspecting masses. And let me be clear: very little bread and lots and lots of circus.

And please, don't come saying that the elite this and that. How does Chavez' socialist (communist to me) agenda can be any valid, that the poor this and that, when you see more Hummers (that cost about $100k in Venezuela), BMWs and Mercedes than in any other country in Latin America? How is this possible? How can he justify this? Where is this money coming from? Obviously the $100 oil barrel. Did you know that he's buying guns, helicopters, planes to Russia, Iran and China? And no milk at the supermarket? It's very easy to say that you support Chavez when you live in the US, when you can go anywhere you want without fear of being -not robbed- but killed, only because you "look" like a member of the "elite"? How do you justify that his cronies live one day in a slum and now they live on the best neighbouhoods? Yeah, like they really worked and made all that money on their own. C'mon!!! Wake up!!! Don't call him a saint, when you don't live there and don't have to deal with the hell day-to-day.

Txutxumeko:

Great article

steve carr:

for those who believe this is the end of chavez think again he is elected until 2013, unless the opposition attempts another coup.

as a chavez supporter im glad he lost, dont like the idea of presidents of life and taught the idea of him controlling the economy would be worst than bush handling of the war.

but one thing i hope this ends, is the mentally challenged calling chavez a dictator, no this proves that he is far from that unlike our allies pakistan and saudi arabia

Dora Allen:

Thank you for the article. We are very happy with the results.
This is the beginning of the end for Chavez.
Now he has date time to go out.
Good blessing ours Boys!

Sammy G:

It's good to know what the Venezuelan elites such as Ibsen Martínez are thinking. They look longingly back at the day when the darkies and the poor knew their place at the back of the bus and there was real "democracy", like in the US where a bunch of millionaires (barons) fight for the right to be president (king) in a populace (subjects) that are lulled into thinking that they actually have "choice".

What was great about Chavez's loss was not the actual result but it showed tha people had free opinions (whether "right" or "wrong"). It invalidates the assumption that the 60%+ votes that Chavez received was somehow due to the ignorant masses. The People have won - again!

MARIA CELEBRA:

Thank you for the article. We are thrilled with the results, but must not forget that Venezuela doesn't have a real opposition in the Asamblea or legislative branches of the government; let's hope that this victory will help to reintroduce more Anti-Chavistas (somehow)into the political arena, or at least discourage Chavez's practice of muffling dissent. Last but not least, let's hope that electoral tallies do not morph into another "lista de Tascon" (blacklisting the opposition)...enough already.

ivan jaksic:

The parallel to Pinochet's yes or no plebiscite is very strong. Perhaps the only difference is the timetable, which was contemplated in Chile's 1980 constitution. In the Venezuelan case, as Martínez notes, the cat is still out of the bag, and many former supporters will begin to abandon Chavez as they see his political capital substantially diminished.


Marilyn Delson:

Chevez wasn't "defeated". The vote was close - 49% to 51%. Stop using American-style horse race lingo that's been applied much too much to our electoral life here. Venezuelans "won" in that they voted for the right to choose different leaders should Chavez come down with a bad case of leader megalomania in the future and stop respecting the people's will.

CAM:

Art:
1. Do government employees are forced in US to march and wear GOP slogans in T shirts supporting Bush?
2. Do they fear being fired if they don't march?
3. Are actors, writers, professionals, etc, banned to work in government projects or institutions because they signed a petition against Bush or the GOP?
4.How many professionals in US have been forced to leave the country to find work due to the veto imposed to them by the President?
5. Do you have to endure 3 or more hours of Bush in forced radio and TV transmitions where he insults you and threatens your way of life just because you don't think like him?
6. Does the GOP has people with 3 or more IDs and that are paid to cast their vote with the fake IDs?
I can follow and follow. Value your country. Ours, Venezuela, is in the hands of a fascist and the laughinstock of the world thanks to this Mini Mussolini's ego. At last after 10 years, we will have a Merry Christmas and some hope for the next year. Don't confuse this fascist with a democrat. There should be more than is at sight for such a person to allow defeat.

Valentina Quintero:

Es tal cual lo que dice Ibsen. hay que vivir en Venezuela y padecer esta guerra de insultos diaria, esta descalificación de todo el que no esté con el régimen, para saborear, hoy, el gusto de este triunfo. Es un alivio tremendo, un respiro, una sganas de tener navidad. Y que todos en la oposición aprendamos de una vez que hay que votar, que hay que entromparse y que vamos por donde es. Que 4 millones de personas dejaran de votar por el hombrecito con delirio de grandeza es una gran proeza. Que escuche de verdad a su pueblo, que es lo que siempre dice.

IMGoph:

like him or hate him, he's followed the will of the people on this vote. it would be nice to see some of spittle-spewing commentators in the US and elsewhere step back from the ledge a bit and be happy to see that democracy can still work.

Emilio Pacheco:

Mr. Martinez's article identifies who and what has been defeated in the referendum of December 2. What was rejected (I imagine that by a wider margin than the one recorded by the CNE) was the transformation of a popular movement into a Leninist vanguard. Chavez has become the leader of a faction in his own movement. A faction that never accepted that the "armed struggle" in 1960s and 70s was defeated by democracy. By giving in to Fidel and to his own fantasy to become the new Fidel, Chavez has misjudged badly how much Venezuelans desire to live in a pluralist, democratic society. Today is a bright day for all those who have fought for the values of democracy in Venezuela. The democrats and libertarians of all parties, including the Chavistas, ought to be congratulated. They have prevailed.

Art:

Well, democracy worked and Mr Chavez let it work. At least he did not embarass his country as our elected officals do with their counts, recounts, stealing votes and a long list of other voting oddities that occur in this country.

As a matter of fact; we lead others by showing them NOT what to do.

Zulay DP:

Great article, Mr. Martinez.

Hopefully, this might be the "beginning of the end" for the implementation of a communist-style regime in Venezuela.

The opposition, and the students, must come together; united, we win but divided, I'm not too sure....

Thanks!

PostGlobal is an interactive conversation on global issues moderated by Newsweek International Editor Fareed Zakaria and David Ignatius of The Washington Post. It is produced jointly by Newsweek and washingtonpost.com, as is On Faith, a conversation on religion. Please send your comments, questions and suggestions for PostGlobal to Lauren Keane, its editor and producer.