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Guest Analyst

The Costs of Iran’s Political Pageantry

By Karim Sadjadpour

“You know the thing about Iran,” a European Ambassador in Tehran once lamented to me. “It has such a rich culture, a grand history, wonderful people. The cuisine is sophisticated and the scenery is breathtaking. It’s got incredible poets, musicians and filmmakers. Beautiful art and architecture…But it’s cursed with such lousy politicians.”

I was reminded of these words when watching the pageantry of Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this morning, announcing that 15 British sailors held captive in Iran would be “pardoned” as an Easter “gift” to the British people in a gesture of magnanimity from “the great Iranian nation.”

Hardliners in Tehran are certain to perceive the entire incident as a diplomatic victory. After all, Iran publicly humiliated its long-time nemesis Britain, and won the release of an Iranian diplomat who had been detained in Iraq.

But at what cost?

From the diplomatic perspective, Tehran may feel like it has chastened the Europeans to think twice before working in concert with the U.S., but in fact they’ve likely achieved the opposite effect. Instead of splitting the international coalition assembled against them by weaning the Europeans away from the Americans—a strategy which Iran successfully employed during the era of reformist President Mohammed Khatami—Iran has further eroded European confidence that there exists a mature Iranian leadership amenable to diplomatic compromise.

And what effect will this have on the moribund Iranian economy, the regime’s Achilles heel? Is the multi-national corporation looking for investment opportunities in the Middle East going to go to Iran or Dubai? Is the international energy firm going to look to sign lucrative natural gas contracts with Iran or Qatar? Are the European tourists who were looking to visit the Middle East this year going to journey to Iran or Egypt?

Iranian hardliners similarly proclaimed victory after the 444 day hostage crisis in 1979 which humiliated the Carter administration. While three decades later the hostage crisis is a blip in the history of the United States, Iran continues to pay for it in terms of a soiled international reputation, political and economic isolation, and vastly unfulfilled potential.

And what about the Iranian people, whom president Ahmadinejad professes to speak for? Ahmadinejad’s entire campaign platform was about compassion for the common man and putting the oil money on people’s dinner tables. But they have been diminished to a mere footnote during his presidency, amidst the bustle about uranium enrichment, centrifuges, holocaust denial, and now British sailors.

Before announcing the release of the sailors, Ahmadinejad felt compelled to lecture the West on gender sensitivity, asking why the UK would send Faye Turney, a mother, on such a compromising mission. “Why don't they respect the values of families in the West?” he asked. “Why is there no respect for motherhood, affection?”

His remarks come one month after a few dozen Iranian women were arrested and/or beaten while peacefully assembling against laws which, among other things, permit stoning women to death if they are convicted of adultery and deny women equal rights in divorce, custody and inheritance. I’m sure the double standard was lost on him.

In characteristic fashion, Iran’s leadership is consumed by short-term tactics at the expense of long-term strategy. In the short term, Iran thumbed its nose at the West and put a smile on the face of millions around the world—especially in the Islamic world—who abhor Western policies in the Middle East.

But once the dust has settled in Tehran, more sober Iranian officials will come to realize that Iran has only increased the time and distance it will need to travel until it can reintegrate itself into the international community and assume its rightful position as a respected member of the league of nations.

Karim Sadjadpour recently joined the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace after serving four years as the chief Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Tehran and Washington, D.C. A leading researcher on Iran, Sadjadpour has conducted dozens of interviews with senior Iranian officials, and hundreds across Iranian society. He is a regular contributor to BBC World TV and radio, CNN and National Public Radio, and has written in the Washington Post, New York Times, International Herald Tribune, and New Republic.

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Lynch:

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Alex:

"And the Unitedstatesians and their British poodles should cease intervening in other people's countries."

Maybe when Iran stops putting 9 year old girls on trial for adultery and hanging them in public from cranes can Governments like the US and Britain stop 'interfering' with disgraceful nations such as Iran.

Percent latte:

Hey Karim pssst pssst,

stop drinking me and travel a bit more, possibly to Tehran. There are currently 193 countries in the world. Exactly which community are you refering to. LOL.

"Iran has only increased the time and distance it will need to travel until it can reintegrate itself into the international community and assume its rightful position as a respected member of the league of nations."


Sofia:

"ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"
refusing to be "WEAK AND FEABLE"
accusing the author of "kissing up to the West"

This kind of talk focusing on PRIDE and LOOKING GOOD, as opposed to searching for peace, is scary and reminds me of terrorist and George Bush talk. The images of the Iranians parading the British soldiers on t.v. forcing them to say a variety of phrases also reminded me of fanatical terrorist behaviour.

These types of attitudes and behaviours do not improve any situation, only increase the divides. What is even more scary is that by acting like this, the governments (whether the U.S. or Iran) end up gaining support from the people and getting into wars. It also takes attention away from what is really going on (i.e. in Iran - women being buried and stoned to death, people being arrested and tortured for saying what they think etc. etc. etc. etc.)

I am saddened by this situation as I would like to have hope for the future but it seems as though religious fanatisism, hatred of the West and "us against them" mentalities are just continuing to increase.

Guest Worker:

Secular or not, my brothers, PEACE be upon all of you.

Michael Deal:

The Bush Administration has never offered to end the embargo of Iran as part of a uranium deal. It should: Offering such a carrot would be a face-saving win for the Iranian government, and it would strengthen the US. While the financial pressure on Iran is, after 11 years, finally having some impact simply because we live, at the moment, in a global economy that is denominated in U.S. dollars, the unilateral U.S. trade embargo on Iran has almost no effect and hurts American exports far worse than any adverse impact on Iran. The import ban has no effect given the high demand for oil by all other countries. The export ban hurts Americans because the U.S. embargo prohibits not only all direct exports to Iran, but also ALL re-exports of US-origin products and even the export of foreign made products with U.S.-origin content in the form of parts, components, materials or technology. Thus a trading company in Dubai or a manufacturing in India that sells product to Iran dares not purchase US goods unless it is willing to put an inventory control system into place that abides by US controls, and most aren't willing to go to that expense. As a result, they source their goods or components from other countries. This hurts the US far more than it hurts Iran, and even helps the mullahs keep the country insulated from Western influence as well as the Iranian exile community, which would be rather influential in Iran if trade were permitted. It also denies the US considerable intelligence that would be gained from debriefing business travellers to Iran (not to mention covers for actual intelligence operatives).

Anonymous:

The naked truth is that UK and USA have lied to the world for more than 4 years about Iraq and the Middle East. They have no credibility left whatsoever. Whatever they say is simply baloney or a lie.

Jaleh:

DCGUY

You are the victim of Gobbles technique that repeating a lie enough times, would make people believe it. In the present Nazi-like environment of the US, the media repeats lies like "Iraq has WMD and ties to Al-Qaeda....-or- "Iran president says "Israel should be wiped off the map" and holds Holocaust Denial Conferences in Tehran" -so many times that you parrot it like a good little Nazi!

In case of the Iraqi lies, you already got the fruit of your false propaganda, so let me just correct your propaganda re. Iran:

1. Ahmadinejad has talked about Israel disappearing from the 'pages of history'- JUST LIKE SOUTH AFRICAN APARTHEID AND SOVIET UNION REGIME disappeared. He meant that the colonial and apartheid regime of Israel, that is Zionism, will end. Many people who believe in a positive direction of history, believe in the inevitability of the same. Colonialism in its crudest form died by 20th centurey, so will Zionism. And historically speaking, soon!

But, Ahmadinejad's words conviniently propagated in the Jewish dominated media of the US as 'Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map', so god forbid if it acquires nukes too! Let alone than Israel is the only country in the Middle East which has a stockpile of nukes and in its short existence has invaded all its neighbors and is sitting on stolen land from its neighbors ILLEGALLY. Iran on the other hand, has not invaded any country for over a century. Iran has been attacked by Iraq which was in turn supported and provided chemical weapons by UK, France, Germany and USA. This should answer your second point that EU will sanction Iran more severely.... EU and US could NOT defeat Iranian revolution by their combined help to Saddam's free cannon fodders AND the Arab finaces in 8 years of war that they instigated against Iran. They have been trying for 27 years, they will continue for another 27 years if Iran does not accept another puppet of theirs like the US-UK installed Shah.


2. The conference in Iran is named as 'holocasut denial conference,' again in US media. However, it was a conference to allow all rereachers whose voice have been shut up in the west bring up their voice without censor, like any other scientific conference. Neither was it an anti-Semitic conference as many Rabbis against Zionism attended the meeting. Questioning the number of people who got killed in Holocasut, or remembering that many other people whom the Nazis considered 'non-pure' such as Yahova witness, gays, Gypsies, Poles, Russians, Jews, retarded people.... were ALL victims of holocaust is such a BIG ARTIFICIALLY MADE TABOO in the US, that you call anyone who talks about it freely, as a 'holocasut-denier'!

The two terms 'anti-Semite' and 'holocaust-denier' have been used ad nauseam to shut up any critic of Israeli crimes.

You don't seem to be bothered by the fact that people are put in prison for VOICING their opinion or sharing their research with peer, or the fact that the synagogue of the Rabbis who attended the conference in Iran was burned recently in NY, no?

Finally, your last point regarding the OVERHYPED fearsome Israeli military. AIPAC has been getting BILLIONS of US taxpayers money in the name of 'US does not have to get its hands dirty in Middle East directly, we'll be their pit bulls, just give us weapons and money.'

It seems that Israel can take care of Palestinians who don't have anything but pebbles to fight with, alright. But, 1/5 of Israelis had to hide in shelters when a small militia of Hezbollah shot some cheap rocket in Israel, no? Did Israel manage to destroy little Hezbollah under its own nose in Lebanon, even though US gave them EMERGENCY EXTRA BOMBS and prevented a cease fire until Israel 'finishes the job?'

In Iraq the case was even reversed, instaed of Israel being of any help to the US, the tail wagged the dog. Brainwashed Americans went ahead with the disaster thanks to the lies of their media.

They are being told a new set of lies mixed with some of the same old ones, this time about Iran. Repeat it at your own peril, casue Iran won't be as easy as Iraq for you.

Tarik:


SAJJADPOUR IS A SMART MAN , LIKE CONDI RICE ,THEY KNOW HOW YOU CAN SUCCEED IN AMERICA : BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE WHITE MAN---
SAY WHAT THEY WANT TO HEAR. JUST LIKE YOUR BOSS.
HOW LONG THIS FARCE WILL GO ON...
IT WAS NOT AN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FOR ME.

I am not Jozevz:

((((((Vote REASON not J-zevz))))))

Anonymous:

To hear of Cyrus the great is good! Jews in Iran are Iranians, arent they? Like jews in France are Frenchmen and Jews in Germany used to be Germans, avant 33.

I am surprised to see a quote of a Western diplomat as a measure on Iran. The measure I heard from Iranians is the "Death to" language, used by all sides. "Death to the mullahs" is not better than "Death to the UK". But maybe this is just "Yes, yes, no, no" of the bible, Abraham, that came with the Turks, that brought Islam to Iran many years ago.

Well, Zoroaster, Mitras etc, there is more in Iran, which Arab country would have been capable to perform such a cavalry attack? Maybe Nazrallahs great fighters in Lebanon. Chapeau!

Afsaneh:

JACOB

Your Jewish ancestors, who revered the very Persian of Persians, Cyrus the Great for liberating them in Babylon, would be turning in their graves for the anti-"Persian" ramblings your are churning here.

DCGuy:

Iran has every reason to be proud that the Persian people have more say in their government than any other nation in the Near East. (except Israel... but that's debatable as well) When Iranians went to the polls in 2005, Bush and the US government only strengthened the hands of the hardliners by disputing Iran's democracy and telling Iranians to boycott the election. The reformist electorate largely stayed away anyways, but it energized the anti-Western factions to vote and put Ahmadinejad in power over the more liberal Rafsanjani. In my mind, Ahmadinejad HAS a significant claim to democratic legitimacy.

Of course, at the same time, let's be honest here. You cannot truly refer to a nation as a true "democracy" when a non-elected Spiritual Leader and Council maintain ultimate authority, especially when that elite group prevents the vast majority of political candidates from running, and suppresses free speech. (Both of which are abuses that occur in ALL democracies, including the US, but not en masse) Iranians posting here may not agree with Mr. Sadjadpour's viewpoint, but in Iran, he wouldn't even be able to state it. In our media you will find a wide variety of opinions and likeminded politicians that run contrary to US policy. They're allowed. THAT is the essence of democracy, protection of dissenting opinions and minority viewpoints. (Which many would say is currently at a low not seen since the Red Scares of the 1950s and 1919.)

However, on the issue of the British sailors, I believe that it's fairly clear to the international community that the facts show that Iran was probably in the wrong. The border was not a US-UK imposed boundary but an internationally accepted one, whether Iran agrees or not. The British government was able to provide GPS evidence that their people were in Iraqi waters, and in the face of this evidence, the Iranian government changed their claim as to where the British sailors were captured. The issue of using the prisoners as televised propaganda is a violation of the Geneva code as well, but there are much worse violations going on as we speak.

In the face of international sanctions against an already economically stagnant country, I don't think that providing more evidence to the anti-Iran camp of Iran's unpredictability and immaturity (by international standards) at this point in time was a very wise idea. I'm glad, however, that all parties were able to resolve the issue peacefully, and that Iran apparently treated the Brits pretty well. Ahmadinejad isn't crazy, he's a reactionary, and a skilled politician. But he has a tendency to to a bit too far for international (and occassionally Khamenei's, supposedly) tastes.

The Persian people have a long and glorious history, and are one of the oldest and most cultured civilizations anywhere in the world. Additionally, Iran has every right to (lawfully and peacefully) oppose what it sees as attempted Western domination. But disregarding international law and actions that fly in the face of global opinion are not the ways to encourage national development domestically and internationally. This man, and these actions, are not characteristic of the true Iran.

Jaco Josevz "assasins against Ancient Persia :

Att: A f S A N E H et al:

Note: Jhust because some people on the block have stolen or Copycat Nuclear weapons, DOES NOT MAKE THEM Smart Nation. Show Me, Show Us, what is in your nations Patens, copy rights etc...? Show me. Show us my fellow Iranians. Or Enemy.

I am a retired international Smuggler. And back in the mid 1970's I went, under Shah's Rule or Monarchy" (Note: I am against ANY Mid east Monarchy) to KORAMSHAH, and Bandar Shipur and Abbas to.

As an Israeli, and a New Zionist, I loved Iran. I had some great sex there. Smoked nice "Chillum" et al.

And the military was the Police. Kuwait, Iraq et was great.

SO Brother, Sister, Cousin, friend. Or Enemy too: Hear Yhea Hear Yhea:

I had a dream:

((((((((( B R E A K I N G ------- N.E.W.S. )))))))))

A few minutes ago An F15 was deliberately smashed into the AL AQSA "Golden Dome of the Rock" in Jerusalem, Israel.

The death toll is rising and we will report on further coverage as it comes in. AND,

"The unHoly "KABBA" in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, was just destroyed by "Exiles" of the "SHAH" PALAHVIs secret Army who smashed a hijacked Saudi Commercial Airline into it and killing around 3,000 people.

AND, SUNNI Pakistan just nuked Shia TEHRAN, Iran 666 minutes ago, Our Captured British, Boys & Girls also perished in the aftermath of such Atomic proportions! We will Report further soon. P.S. Watch Your Ass Persian SATANS of the Sky G-ds!

Its as though every Muslim has gotten a dagger shot in their hearts and or minds. This means that ISLAM is now Dead! People are yelling: Death to Iran!

They run around like Chickens without heads. LOST and oblivious like!

APOCALYPTO for your People because you follow and 90% (in America 48% or less) VOTED FOR YOUR CURRENT "T.H.E.O.C.R.A.C.Y."

So you will pay for the sins of your SATANIC MULLAHS and those other Vinriloquosts in hiding, In America, Israel, or whereever.! Ya Ya Mon!

Afsaneh:

JAXOB

For all your ramblings about Iran killing off the Zoroastrians - (they fled the Arab invasion of the 7th century not, the Iranian people) please pay attention to some pertinent facts:
THE PERSIAN NEW YEAR, currently celebrated in Iran, and a reason in part why this whole sailor ordeal had so many layers to it, is a 2 week holiday starting from the first day of Spring, March 21st.
From the staunchest Mullahs to the most reformed of reformers this unifying, pre-Islamic Zoroastrian New Year continues to be celebrated in Iran. It has remained for 2500 years, Iran's National Holiday.
The country literally shuts down for 2 weeks, and in part the holiday complicated the UK sailors' situation.
The Shah didn't take "Persia" away from the nation of Iran. He only took a tyranny in which you couldn't even elect a President, away from the Iranian people.
Ramble as much as you want. But do pick up a book somewhere along the way. Less than that, just pick up an IQ or 2, that's all it takes to know current history.
Good ,bad, or ugly - Iranians now elect their Presidents. They also continue to speak Persian, and hold as thier singular national holiday, the same Zorastrian New Year of their forefather, Cyrus.