Since the brutal attack on Zimbabwean opposition and civic leaders on March 11, and the strong international response against the Mugabe regime, speculation has grown that Zimbabwe is on the cusp of political change. There are certainly indicators that Mugabe is weaker and more isolated than he has ever been, not only internationally, but at national and regional levels. With his party mired in a destructive battle over succession, and the emergence of a more critical tone in some of the statements from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union, it has clearly become harder for the Zimbabwean leader to espouse his anti-imperialist rhetoric with the resonance of the past.
The gruesome response his security sector dealt to the opposition's dissent is just the latest example of Mugabe's brutal suppression of his citizens. It is a fact that no amount of African solidarity can conceal. Nor is it plausible for writers who have portrayed this violence as a short term aberration in a “progressive long-term” project to continue to evade the stubborn modality of political violence that has increasingly marked the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) project.
Mugabe's immediate response to the growing chorus of criticism of his rule has been to go on the offensive and attempt to remobilize war veterans, to temporarily strengthen his position. He will probably combine this effort with attempts to weaken the position of his opponents within the party structures. He is also clearly willing to inflict further lethal violence on the opposition forces in the country.
However, Mugabe is likely to be less successful in his present attempt to reconfigure the party and state than he was in the period from 2000-2005, when there was greater unity in his party, and when he enjoyed more support on the continent. For the SADC leaders meeting to discuss the Zimbabwean situation, the challenge is how to translate growing concern over Mugabe's delinquent state into a political process beyond the current impasse. For this they will need to negotiate between the intransigence of Mugabe and his support base, and the dangers of being seen to carry out a project of Western hypocrisy in Africa.
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Comments (5)
If Bush hadn't so screwed up in Vietraq and so squandered our moral authority, we would be able to have the CIA overthrow thugs like Mugabe, in addition to bombing the Sudanese gov't into the stone age to stop the genocide in Darfur. Mugabe is a dinosaur. He and his kind need to accept their inevitable extinction. Anything we in the US can do to accelerate this would be the best thing we could do for Africa.
March 30, 2007 8:50 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 30, 2007 20:50
It certainly will be interesting to see what comes out of the Tanzania talks over the next couple of days but I would caution against placing too much faith in the SADC leaders - even if they do openly condemn the situation in Zimbabwe. In the same way that Mugabe told the west to 'go hang,' he will have no problem telling that to his SADC counterparts. The most recent arrests of MDC members were intended to give the same message to the world and especially to the SADC heads; with dignity and diplomacy,the African presidents will give their polite criticisms and perhaps suggest that Mr. Mugabe not stand for re-election,...he may even sit there and take it all in, but all the while, the attacks and arrests will continue and he will have gotten his point across, 'as long as it doesn't work in his favor, African solidarity can also 'go hang.' The open statements from SADC and the west will help, but the tipping point must be reached from within the country.
March 29, 2007 9:57 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 29, 2007 09:57
At this rate Mugabe will have to extend the relection date, or not get elected for another term. when Mugabe leaves, the poverty stricken state of Zimbabwe will improve. Donate money to help the Zimbabweans who are living under the porverty line at www.eliasfund.org.
March 28, 2007 1:51 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 28, 2007 13:51
the only way for zimbabwe is to take back our country by force like we took it 27 years ago
March 28, 2007 1:35 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 28, 2007 13:35
Well, the latest news is that Mugabe has had the leader of the opposition arrested. If this is a tipping point, it had better tip quickly before Mugabe's men beat him to death.
March 28, 2007 11:28 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on March 28, 2007 11:28