Denver Research Group - The most consistent reaction of thought leaders around the world to the "surge" strategy put forth by President Bush last night was that it simply won't work. Yet, the most surprising reaction to the speech was a widespread view that President Bush was setting up a new war with Iran.
In early October, the Global Power Barometer reported the prospect of a wider war in the Middle East. Thought leaders are now writing at about twice the October rate that war may be coming closer.
The reasons given are several:
1) The Bush Administration is trying a Hail Mary to "achieve victory" in the Middle East and rescue the Bush legacy (the addition of the 2nd carrier group to the Middle East as well as the replacement of current commanders with more hawkish generals are among the events causing this concern)
2) The news that Israel is practicing long distance bombing runs of about the right distance to reach and return from Iran
3) Rumors that Israel will use tactical nukes to take out Iran's nuclear facilities
4) Recently expressed concerns by Sunni nations such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia about the rising power of Shi'ites regionally; expect a countering Sunni coalition if Saudi Prince Bandar has his way
5) An increasing Iranian concern that Iran will be attacked...a concern that thought leaders suggest may be coalescing key leaders around the conservative bloc even after an election dominated by more moderate or reformist factions
6) Views that both President Bush and President Ahmadinejad are willing to go to war
7) Concern that the U.S. escalation in Iraq could further inflame regional tensions
Read more of our observations here and tell us what you think.
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