Theresa Hitchens - China's dramatic Jan. 11 demonstration of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons capability has shaken the geo-strategic landscape, raising a host of questions not just for the United States but for all space stakeholders. Whatever Beijing's motivation for this provocative move, it is a clear signal that the nature of the space game is shifting; and unfortunately not in positive ways. The question is: What now?
First, the deliberate destruction of a satellite in a highly used orbit - creating mass quantities of space debris that will remain a global danger for decades - has quite rightly been greeted with U.S. and international opprobrium. Protests should be forthcoming from all responsible space-faring nations, and the action deplored by all at the upcoming February meeting of the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Uses of Space (COPUOS). Even if China broke no laws, the destructive ASAT test violated at least the spirit, if not the letter, of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which pledges nations not to interfere with the space operations of others and to consult when national action might lead to such interference. China neither notified others nor has it yet conceded to calls for consultations; behavior that is simply unacceptable, particularly in peacetime.
It has also raised serious questions about Beijing's credibility as a responsible space-faring nation - tarnishing a reputation that the Chinese leadership has been steadily building among the international space community. How that plays out in other nation's willingness to continue civil and commercial space cooperation with Beijing remains to be seen. While isolating China for one negative act, even if it was spectacularly negative, is probably not useful, some thought must be given to how to drive home to Beijing the magnitude of its error.
Second, what should be the U.S. response? The vulnerability of U.S. satellites has been starkly highlighted and the need to seriously address those vulnerabilities must now be recognized by policy-makers and the U.S. Congress. Top priority should be placed on improving space-situational awareness (the ability to 'see' and understand what is going on in space), ensuring that satellite systems have passive protections to the extent feasible, and building redundant capabilities - both in space and in other mediums - to guarantee back-up in case of loss. While the U.S. Air Force has long been advocating such activities, investment has not been adequate. This disconnect must be remedied.
That said, it would be a major mistake for the United States to conclude that an all-out drive for an arsenal of offensive counter-space weapons -- including similarly destructive ASATs -- is in order. As most space experts recognize, ASATs cannot protect U.S. space assets, since there are myriad terrestrially-based ways to threaten space systems including satellites. It is further highly unclear that ASATs would serve to deter potential adversaries from seeking to target U.S. space assets, as most other nations are not as dependent on space. The question of what, if any, 'hard power' response to the Chinese provocation is prudent rests, in part, on determining exactly what was Beijing's motivation for doing what it did when it did it. And that is not currently possible, given the historic lack of engagement with China on space-related issues. Indeed, the long-standing refusal of the United States to enter into any discussions regarding military space issues now must be seen as a strategic error. The time has come for a change in U.S. approach, and for responsible space-faring nations to come together to define acceptable 'rules of the road' in space, as well as to deter and/or punish unacceptable behaviors.
Theresa Hitchens is the Director of the World Security Institute's Center for Defense Information, and the author of "Future Security in Space: Charting a Cooperative Course." Special thanks to Omar Aslam.
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Comments (5)
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May 18, 2007 5:06 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on May 18, 2007 05:06
The USA seems to think that it is the only country in the world to be able to do whatever it likes. It is a country that can do no wrong and it is the only country that is standing on the moral high ground.
The truth is the USA is able to push other nations around because it has the most destructive military power.
The USA is like a mad man with a big gun, and is always ready to use it. The USA is always threatening other nations with this gin gun into submission.
The USA should lock itself up, the world do will be more peaceful without this mad man.
February 22, 2007 1:27 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on February 22, 2007 01:27
In a primarily unipolarised world, it is China's way of asserting itself as a serious contender to the post of the 'other' super power after the demise of the USSR. And what better way than reigniting the 'Star Wars' program. But it is a very unfortunate development in the world politics as such actions by 'mightier' states like China would only escalate the dangers already being faced by the humanity.
The entire world including the UN need to condemn this defiant act of China and ensure sustainable peace on our Earth.
January 28, 2007 11:46 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 28, 2007 11:46
I am also afraid that China will use it's power somewhat recklessly, perhaps loosening up arms caches to terrorist cells, much like we fear Iran could do. What do you think? Is it too responsible a power? Or is it cynical enough?
January 24, 2007 3:52 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 24, 2007 15:52
Don't be surprised if you see some "ooops, we're sorry, our satellite that we sent to orbit exploded. Dammit, are we stupid ! And what a pitty, it was on an orbit-height used by American spy-satellites. And, oh no! we sent it onto a polar orbit so it's debris will criss-cross the equatorian orbit all the time."
January 23, 2007 4:50 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 23, 2007 04:50