Steve Clemons - I suspect that we will soon see more collisions between U.S. military squads and Special Force operations against suspected Syrian and Iranian convoys and personnel -- civilian and military -- inside Iraq as well as more border interdiction. At some point, these units will go into Syria and Iran to accomplish their "disruption" missions.
At that point, Syria and Iran will make a calculation as to whether they should respond with proportionate military force against US military assets -- or whether they respond in lateral ways against other players in the region -- like American allies in Afghanistan or Iraq, or Israel. Alternatively, Iran could pump up the sophistication of weaponry it is supplying to Shiite groups and design and organize higher profile assaults on the Sunni population and American and British forces -- operating through proxies.
Despite Vice President Cheney's desire to see Iran directly fire a few missiles at our troops in response to provocations from the U.S. -- thus firmly establishing a casus belli for a full-fledged American attack against Iran -- Iran will probably be craftier than that and will respond in fuzzy, indirect, but highly disruptive ways -- through Hezbollah, Shiite militia, and other agents.
Also, expect to see Iran's top tier diplomats, theocrats and political elite make "mutual interest" trips to Moscow and Beijing. Iran will offer highly lucrative "energy arrangements" that major powers focused on further global ascension won't be able to resist. Unless America is willing to figure out and pay the diplomatic price desired by China and Russia for uniform action against Iran, then Iran will cultivate these two rising peer competitors and balancers against American power.
Given Japan's and Europe's direct dependence on Iranian oil exports, as the heat in the region rises and direct military collisions occur, Japanese and European diplomats will attempt to wedge themselves between the conflicting parties.
America may again find itself diplomatically isolated as it wages a subtle war against Iran -- which despite Iranian funding of destabilizing non-state forces in many parts of the Middle East -- may find that it has a diplomatic edge because America never took part in credible diplomatic engagement with Iran over its nuclear program and about its regional misbehavior.
Just to be clear, I feel that a significant portion of the Iranian political elite wants Iran to develop nuclear weapons -- mostly as a shield to protect itself from perceived threats. I don't buy the "peaceful use" line fully -- but there are ways to make the "peaceful use" option work. The problem is we aren't really trying. With Iran, we are perceiving its program as an "all or nothing" event. That kind of Manichean view of this problem by the United States is something that most other global powers won't accept and which will further erode America's leverage in this process.
Ahmadinejad wants an attack on Iran nearly as much as Cheney does. An American or Israeli bombing of its nuclear facilities and the killing of 6,000 of its top engineering talent (and the many tens of thousands who happen to be near them at the time of the bombing) will consolidate his power inside the country -- something he is no where close to at this point.
The nightmare scenario -- as if this was not bad enough -- is that Iranian-backed agents in the region roll out disruption plans across moderate Sunni regimes -- particularly Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
Many I have spoken to from the defense and foreign affairs sectors from various Middle East states worry about well-disguised yet successful assassination attempts against Saudi or Jordanian leaders -- throwing the Sunni regimes into turmoil and igniting national and regional rage that they feel will ultimately be anti-American, anti-occupation, anti-colonial, and of course, anti-Israel.
This is the course we seem to be on now. And it doesn't need to be this way. There are alternatives -- but nearly all of them require a creative, bold approach that might enable us to leap-frog over our massive failures in the region.
We need to consider an alternative plan. We need to have squarely in our mind how nasty and brutish the results of our current policy course are to help muster the consensus needed to make the President and Congress uniformly change course. . .and change course for real.
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Steve Clemons is the Senior Fellow & Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. He also writes the blog The Washington Note from which this article was drawn. Photo by Sarah Brennan.
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Comments (16)
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May 18, 2007 4:17 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on May 18, 2007 04:17
Andrew,who is in Iraq?Tell me how many clandestine operations the US has inside Iran and it,s bordering countries.Tell me why Iran can not speak out against the occupation of the palestinian people.Tell me the last time Iran sent troops to Americas borders.Tell me who has killed more Iraq cavillians in the past three years,Americans or Iranians.You talk of Americas need to not trust Iran.If you lived in Iran would you trust the Us.
January 22, 2007 3:46 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 22, 2007 15:46
I really don't underestand this. The people who are attacking Americans, the insurgents, are suni Arabs. These suni terrorists are at odd with Iranians because they think Iran is supporting the shiats in Iraq. The Bush Adminstration says Iran giving IED to Iaqi Insurgents to kill Americans. But Saudis already announced they support insurgents financialy. Most of the attackers on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia. I am from Iran and I visited Iran several times. Most of Iranians love Americans. Just travel to Arab countries and see what percentage are pro Americans.
January 20, 2007 2:20 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 20, 2007 02:20
Iran offered to sever ties with Hezbollah in 2003'
LONDON: Iran offered to cut off aid and support for the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah and the Palestinian group Hamas, and promised full transparency on its nuclear programme, in a secret letter to the United States soon after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the BBC reported on Wednesday.
According to the BBC, the letter, which it obtained, was unsigned, but the US State Department understood that it came with the approval of the highest Iranian authorities.
The Islamic republic also offered to use its influence to support stabilisation in Iraq, and in return asked for a halt in hostile American behaviour, an abolition of all sanctions, and the pursuit and repatriation of members of the Mujahedeen Khalq (People's Mujahedeen MKO).
Initially, the State Department was positive on the offer, according to Lawrence Wilkerson, former US secretary of state Colin Powell's chief of staff, who spoke to the BBC.
"As soon as it got to the White House, and as soon as it got to the Vice-President's (Dick Cheney) office, the old mantra of 'we don't talk to evil' ... reasserted itself," Wilkerson told the broadcaster.
"To our embarrassment at State ... the cable that I saw go back to the Swiss actually upbraided the Swiss for being so bold and audacious as to present such a proposal to us on behalf of the Iranians."According to Wilkerson, the State Department was also offered a deal by the Iranians after it led the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 which involved Iran giving up senior Al-Qaeda terror network figures in return for help pursuing the MKO.
Powell and Wilkerson were unsure how high in the Iranian government the approach came from, however, and did not pursue the offer, the BBC said.
Training Iraqis: Tehran's ambassador to Baghdad said Thursday that Iran stands ready to help train and equip Iraqi security forces to combat what he called terrorism.
Speaking after talks with Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Hassan Kazemi demanded to be shown "any shred of evidence that Iran is working to destabilise Iraq," as the United States alleges.
"We are working for, not against, security in Iraq, because we know that insecurity justifies maintaining foreign troops in the country," Kazemi told reporters.
He added: "Iran is disposed to helping to train and equip Iraqi security forces to combat terrorism." afp
January 19, 2007 4:19 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 19, 2007 16:19
Well done Mr. Jack Rad, you said it all and perfectly. US talks about democracy in Iraq when it supports most brutal dictatorsip regime in the region, including Turkemenestan and Ghazaghestan. What hypocitits George Bush and his cronies are.
January 19, 2007 2:17 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 19, 2007 02:17
We keep hearing this nonsense from the US administration that Iran is helping to destablize Iraq. Iran is a predominantly shia country and the government of Iraq is shia-dominated. Why would Iran want to destablize a government friendly to it?
Saudi Arabia and Jordan are sunni governments and are very upset that a sunni regime in Iraq was overthrown. They are the ones behind the insurgants by both financing them and by sending Al qaeda mercenaries through their borders into Iraq. Yet, has anyone heard the Bush administration warning the Jordanian and Saudi governments not to interfere in Iraq?
January 18, 2007 10:27 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 22:27
You know, you need to actually go to Iran to know what is being discussed here.
Going by my own factual, first hand knowledge of the Iranians, they are a most polite, respectful, civilised and extremely well educated people.
The first time I was there I went alone. I have now taken my family there 5 times, and we have always felt welcome and safe. But make no mistake - the Iranians are extremely friendly and confident, because they really believe in themselves, and are just as patriotic as we are. So if you do mention politics, they will tell you that firstly all they want is for outsiders to let them run their country, and second to know that anyone who attacks them will get attacked back. If you show simple courtesy to them though, they will respect you back tenfold. In fact we used to have problems going through doors, because the Iranians have this thing about making sure the guests, as they refer to all who visit their country, enter the premises first. The only down side was their television programmes, they are just as bad as our ones. We, the great American nation, simply must stop talking about BOMBING other nations simply because they do not do whatever we say, as if we are talking about handing out sweets. We are talking about killing lots of innocent people for Gods sake, who have not done us any harm. Surely we are better than the terrorists we so fervently pursue In Afghanistan. And by the way, werent the 9/11 people all from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Afghanistan? The so called moderate, friends and allies of ours?
January 18, 2007 1:40 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 13:40
One realizes just how out of touch with reality the American perspective has become when one starts hearing of Sunni regimes like "Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt" being dubbed as "moderate".
What does Mr. Clemons mean when he throws around the word moderation so carelessly? Is it the fact that Saudi Arabia is a Wahhabi system (the mother of all Islamic fundamentalist ideologies) with its barbaric civil rights laws, or is it the fact that Jordan is a dictatorship? At least in Iran women can hold public office, and can see elections and even impeachments at top levels. Why are we so intent on even destroying that faint flicker of democracy?
January 18, 2007 1:05 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 13:05
What is wrong with this picture? Here we are, with hundreds of thousands of our troops in Iraq, and we are accusing Iran of interfering? How long is this nonesense going to go on. If our boys and girls weren't being killed daily, it would almost be comic. Why are we there? NO WMD's? No secret Biological labs? And we got rid of Saddam, whom we put in power in the first place, helping him with chemical weapons against, of all people, the IRANIANS, for 8 or 9 years.
Just think - Iran is the only country in the region who has not attacked anyone for hundreds of years,and yet is the one constantly being threatened - we need to ask how would we, this great nation, react in their shoes? The truth is, and you can check this out, we have done far worse to Iran, than Iran has ever done to us. So let us talk with them at least. W do need to concentrate on Afghanistan, where the Taliban are regainnig their towns again, and Heroin is growing rampantly. Iran can be the strongest regional ally we could have, and they have asked for nothing from us except to stop being nasty towards them.
As for what Ahmadinejad said about Israel, how many times have we heard their leaders talk about bombing Iran, long time before Ahmadinejad was voted in?
January 18, 2007 12:30 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 12:30
Iran supports Shia militia. But Shia militia is not the militia that attacks US forces. This is the Sunni insurgency that attacks US forces. Shia militias are supporting the current government that is also supported by the US. Also Ahmadinejad, who is only harming Iran and is a darling to neocons, never said that he intends to wipe off Israel. This is propaganda. Ahmadinejad said that he hoped that the "Zionist regime" will get the Soviet destiny and will disappear from the pages of the time. This somehow has been translated by neocon propagandists to a will to wipe off Israel ! First of all he talked of a fall of a regime and secondly he compared that fall to fall of the Soviet Union. The Persian text is available and newpapers like Guardian has revealed the twisting of what Ahmadinejad originally said in a small town for local consumption.
January 18, 2007 12:04 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 12:04
With all do respect,you all have forgotten that iran is surrounded by u.s forces in
Afganistan,turky,azarbayjan,turkamanestan,
Iraq,pakestan,and the gulf nations,It was the goul of united states to crush iran from all sides,and have total control of the world most riches oil and gas fields.
January 18, 2007 12:04 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 12:04
Salamon,
"Aside from the unsubstantiated allegation that Iran is arming the Shia faction in Iraq..... General Pace indicated that he has no evidence that IRan is supplying armaments. If the Chief of Staff does not have evidence, then perhaps Mr. Clemons will indicate ASAP where this evidence is"
Let me tell you this. On Monday, January 15, Mr Ahmadinejad was at a press conference in Quito, Ecuador. He was asked a direct question: "Mr President, is Iran supporting shia militias in Iraq?"
He said:
"Let me answer with another question: What is the U.S. doing in Iraq? The U.S. is thousands of miles away from Iraq, and they keep 160.000 troops there. Any nation seeking to defend itself can count on Iranian aid."
Do you need any more proof?
January 18, 2007 11:02 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 11:02
I do not agree that Ahmadinejad wants an attack on Iran as much as Cheney.
Ahmadinejad attempted to grab power through unwise theatrics but he is now on his way out as it has become obvious to Iranians that he has damaged Iran's national security interests and mismanaged the economy.
For up to date and in depth information on Iran please visit Iran Information Agency.
http://iraninformationagency.blogspot.com
January 18, 2007 4:45 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 04:45
At last, a realistic and clear vision. More voices of this nature are needed to be heard, instead of those self-appointed experts that write opinions for WashPost.
January 18, 2007 2:54 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 18, 2007 02:54
Aside from the unsubstantiated allegation that Iran is arming the Shia faction in Iraq, I can forsee that an attack on Iran might cause world wide problems. Russia has supplied anti-aircraft batteris [some of the latest models] to Iran. General Pace indicated that he has no evidence that IRan is supplying armaments. If the Chief of Staff does not have evidence, then perhaps Mr. Clemons will indicate ASAP where this evidence is -- Lest the USA be lied into another war, with far greater consequences than the one attacking a delibilated essentially unarmed country which suffered 10 years of sanctions.
I would expect that the USA's bankers will take EXTREMELY DIM VIEw if their economy is disrupted by lack of oil. Mr. Clemons might be rich enough to survive oil at 100-300 dollars a barrel, but such would devestate the USA population. Possibility arises that there would be an extremely quick regime change if the Deciever continues decieving and gets the USA into the 4th war of 2007 [Iraq, Afganjistan, Somalia already strining the USA treasury and armed forces].
January 17, 2007 5:28 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 17, 2007 17:28
" I don't buy the "peaceful use" line fully -- but there are ways to make the "peaceful use" option work. The problem is we aren't really trying."
Mr. Clemons
I keep hearing this same argument over and over again. And it quite frankly drives me nuts because it so defies reality. In the past year Iran has:
1. Indicated its desire to whipe Israel off of the map
2. Has actively assisted the Iraqi insurgency
3. Has defied the UN security council (thats nothing new) and continued to enrich uranium
And yet the American left is seriously arguing as if is truly a trustworthy negotiating partner and not an enemy of the US that seeks to bury us in Iraq. I really wish we could be presented with reality based solutions to our problems that dont require appeasement or unconditional surrender on the part of the US.
January 17, 2007 2:36 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on January 17, 2007 14:36