Mark Weisbrot - Ecuadorians went to the polls on Sunday. Leftist economist Rafael Correa is leading billionaire banana magnate Alvarao Noboa, the richest man in the country. The young Correa could finally undo Washington's failed economic prescriptions in the country and bring change.
Noboa had given out cash, computers, and medicine at his rallies in this poor country. He has promised much more if he wins. He beat Correa by four percentage points in the first round on October 15, but has since seen a 16 point lead in the two-way runoff fade into a statistical tie. Noboa's campaign tried what the Latin American right has recently come to see as a winning formula, conjuring up images of his opponent becoming "another Chavez" and turning Ecuador into a dictatorship.
Much of the international press has gone along for the ride, referring to Correa as an "ally of Chavez" in headlines and news articles, even though Correa has met Chavez only once and has not given any indication that he seeks to ally Ecuador with or against any other nation. The whole media framework smacks of an outdated Cold War mentality and obscures much more than it explains with regard to Latin America's rapidly changing political reality. Why isn't President Lula da Silva of Brazil described as an "ally of Chavez?" Just last week Lula made Venezuela his first foreign trip after being re-elected, flying there to preside over the dedication of a new Brazilian-financed $1.2 billion bridge over the Orinoco river. Lula lavished praise on Chavez, making what was practically a public endorsement of the Venezuelan president as he headed into the final weeks of his own re-election campaign.
Correa, for his part, has refused to be intimidated by the media or his opponent. When asked about Chavez on national television, he defended Venezuela's social programs that have brought free health care and increased access to education for millions of poor people. He forcefully corrected his interviewer with some facts: Venezuela is not an authoritarian state but a democracy, he explained, and has an oppositional media that attacks the president on a daily basis. A recent poll in Ecuador found that 86 percent of the population admires Chavez.
Correa has promised to make poverty alleviation his top priority, even if that means renegotiating some of Ecuador's $10.2 billion foreign public debt. This has rattled the bond markets and provided another scare tactic opportunity for his opponents, who have suggested that his election could provoke an economic crisis. Memories of the late 1990s economic crisis, which set off one of the largest waves of emigration in Ecuador's history, are still fresh. But the conditions that created that crisis are no longer present. Most importantly, in 2000 the country adopted the dollar as its national currency, thus eliminating the currency risks that played a prominent role in the financial crisis, and bringing inflation down from 96 percent in 2000 to just 3.3. percent today.
The country is running a budget and trade surplus, and the economy is unlikely to be upset by the election of a left candidate who wants to capture more revenues from foreign energy companies - oil comprises 58 percent of Ecuador's exports - and invest in health care and education for the poor. That strategy has proved successful for Bolivia, which has increased its take of natural gas export revenue by billions of dollars and is doing quite well under the left government of indigenous leader Evo Morales.
Noboa has presented himself as a staunch ally of U.S. foreign and commercial policy in the region, supporting a proposed "free trade" agreement and pledging to break diplomatic relations with Venezuela and Cuba. Correa has rejected the proposed trade agreement and said he would not renew the lease on a U.S. military base at Manta when it expires in 2009.
But it does not look like outcome of this election will affect commercial relations with the United States. The White House has endorsed the extension of the trade preferences that give both Bolivia and Ecuador duty-free access to U.S. markets - which expire next month -- and the new Democratic Congress is likely to agree. The trend in recent years has been for Washington not to retaliate against Latin American voters who elect left governments. Even in Nicaragua, where U.S. officials threatened economic sanctions if leftist Daniel Ortega were to win the presidency on November 5, nothing seems imminent since he's won.
It's a new world, and fear may no longer be enough to keep Latin Americans from voting for change.
---
Mark Weisbrot is the co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
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Mr Weisbrot's article misses several key points:
1. EDUCATION
In Ecuador, the Left holds a mafia-style control over the entire education system, from nursery school to graduate school. So don't be surprised that many young people believe what they are told by leftist operatives disguised as teachers:
- "capitalism is essencially evil, and communism is good";
- "only rich people should pay taxes";
- "government is the answer to all social ills, so we need more government";
- "foreigners have the duty to help us by lending as much money as we ask, but we don't have the obligation to pay them back (we are poor, you know)";
- "only government can create jobs; we don't need private enterprise and investment";
- "american imperialism is the cause of all problems around the world";
- "all our problems will be solved if we kick gringos out of Latin America".
2. SCARE TACTICS
Scare tactics are not property of the U.S. Leftists master them too, and to greater extents. They have succeeded in scaring farmers, artisans, public employees, small entrepreneurs and many other groups about the dangers of a potential Noboa administration: subsidized farm products will flood the domestic market so you will go broke; your labor rights will be eliminated; you will lose your job to someone from China; more gringos will come to the Manta military base and will rape your daughters; Noboa's friends will steal our oil fields, etc etc.
3.- MONEY
Although Mr Noboa is a very rich man, his wealth cannot compete with Hugo Chavez's oil resources. In recent months, Ecuadorian leftist candidates have regularly held "Bolivarian summits" with Venezuelan operatives who distributed cash. In fact, Hugo Chavez financed not only Correa's campaign but also the campaigns of other leftist candidates: indigenous leader Luis Macas, former guerrilla fighter Lenin Torres, teachers' union leader Luis Villacis, and journalist Marcelo Larrea whose wife happens to be the Propaganda Director of Venezuela's Congress.
4. INSULTS
Mr Noboa has been insulted like no one in recent history in Ecuador. Leftists have flooded the country with ugly graffitis, spam email, cell-phone messages and handouts depicting Mr Noboa as a drug adict and a devil who killed his own father and sister.
5. SUPERSTITION
Ecuador's people are religious... and superstitious. Correa supporters flooded the media with fabricated testimonials by fortune tellers who are said to have "seen" Correa elected as Ecuador's President.
November 28, 2006 10:51 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on November 28, 2006 10:51
I wish there were more articles like this so I could learn more about Mr. Correa and his goals. I'm Ecuadorian from birth but have lived most of my life in the US. I remain very much interested in the politics of that country. Unbiased articles like these are what readers like myself look for.
November 27, 2006 4:17 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on November 27, 2006 16:17
Thanks for a clear and independent analysis of the stakes in the elections. It is tiring to read the warmed over cold war analysis of such changes, and your article cuts through the smoke. Keep up the good work.
November 25, 2006 4:59 PM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on November 25, 2006 16:59
thanks for this analysis. as an ecuadorian, it's been hard to see the international media oversimplify correa into a chavez jr. mr. correa has a ph.d. from illinois and has done extensive academic research on free trade agreements. but all the media has been able to see is left vs. right.
November 25, 2006 9:23 AM | Report Offensive Comment
Posted on November 25, 2006 09:23