Lamis Andoni Doha, Qatar - There is a dangerous lack of trust in Lebanese politics. Hezbollah is convinced that the March 14th alliance is "conspiring against it". And Hezbollah's primary political card today is to expose this alliance as a proxy for French and American interests.
This past week all five Shia Muslim, pro-Syrian ministers in the Lebanese government resigned. Hezbollah asked for cabinet seats that would give it the power of the veto. Hezbollah still enjoys tremendous respect in the Arab world for resisting Israel. So its resignation becomes an even more powerful tool for reconvening future talks on "better terms for Hezbollah".
Hezbollah will first will test the political impact of their resignations. Prime Minister Siniora cannot afford to leave the Shia community without representation. It could lead to crisis. By resigning, Hezbollah is also trying to block what they see as the hasty revisiting of a UN draft plan to try the suspects accused of assassinating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in an international court.
The moment the draft plan was brought into the talks, both sides used it as a political tool. Indeed, whoever controls the court decision in Lebanon controls the country's place within shifting regional alliances.
Hezbollah is banking on its popularity and its earned legitimacy as a resistance movement, as well as its role in the political system, to win a standoff. The March 14th alliance is depending on its claim to preserve the "independence of Lebanon". The truth is neither party is totally independent. Hezbollah, which says it had no other option but to resign has taken a big gamble to increase its say in government. But failure of the talks has opened the doors wide for potentially uncontrollable consequences.

Read more from Al Jazeera consultant and PostGlobal panelist Lamis Andoni here.
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Comments (12)
Good site! I'll stay reading! Keep improving!
November 10, 2007 4:18 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 10, 2007 04:18
Good site! I'll stay reading! Keep improving!
November 10, 2007 4:18 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 10, 2007 04:18
fff
December 29, 2006 10:08 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on December 29, 2006 22:08
Zain does your idiocy know no bounds?
December 15, 2006 11:47 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on December 15, 2006 11:47
How cool. Give social service, then kidnap enemy soldiers. then use your own served population as human shields. Repeat until nothing left.
Nasrallah and his cronies are terrorists not because they oppose Israel, but because they will kill amongst their own those who defy them. Remember Hariri
How about trying to make Lebanon the Dubai of the Mediterranean and doing some serious work??
In the name of the prophet (pbuh) use your brains everyone
By the way Israel sucks too
November 14, 2006 12:31 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 14, 2006 12:31
Alfred,
Refrain from platitudes please. The country was destroyed by Israel. Israel could have negotiated for the release of the soldiers, as it had done before, but it chose to indulge in collective punishment of the Lebanese people. Hezbullah owes its popularity to the huge mistake Israel made in choosing the course of action it did.
You mat also want to do some research into the social services it provides to its constituency, services that the Lebanese government has failed to provide.
November 14, 2006 10:58 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 14, 2006 10:58
Once again the shiites in lebanon and sad too that they allow a leader such mr nassrallah to who thinks that by distroying the country can rule Lebanon, and he also claims that he is lebanese. Talk about king of hippocracy. Mr nassrallah has over 25% of his people with no homes, where Iran and Syria to build their homes, or is Mr Nassrallah awaiting the lebanese immigrants and the EU to rebuild what he distroyed, or is he awaiting money to further assist in the total distruction of what has left from Lebanon??
November 14, 2006 9:05 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 14, 2006 09:05
Interesting comments by an observer of Lebanon's politics from Qatar. What's missing -- what always seems to be missing from Wash Post commentary on Lebanon -- is the role of demographic change. No real census of Lebanon's population, incl. religion, has been done since the mid-1940's. Back in the early days of the Lebanon civil war in the mid-1970's, academic experts guessed that the Shiite population was somewhere betw 35-40% of the country's total. The Shiites have experienced a relatively high birth rate since then. And, unlike the many Lebanese Christians and Sunnis who migrated out of Lebanon during the 15 yr civil war, the Lebanese Shiites mainly stayed put. So, a best guess estimate of Shiite portion of Lebanon's population is more than likely somewhere betw 45-50% of the total. Why shouldn't such a large portion of the population have control -- or at least veto power -- over ANY Lebanese govt. policy and decision?? Notwithstanding the alloting of Lebanon's govt. positions among its component groups that comes from the Lebanese compact of 1944 and the Taif agreement -- the basic question that should be asked by any and all observers of Lebanon's politics is -- why should the Sunni/Druze/partial Christian Mar 14 alliance that was put into power by massive USG funding of its political campaign for Parliament -- be Lebanon's govt?? Truly, the questions that needs to be answered is -- why isn't there an official current census of Lebanon's population -- and based on that census, why isn't there a redistricting of Parliament seats to reflect Lebanon's current real population mix? -- rather than some fantasy population mix that is used by the USG and French Govt. to justify keeping their stooges in power. I would love to ask Walid Jumblatt that question -- as well as to remind Walid that his much more famous and respected father is probably turning over in his grave as he observes how much a USG synchophant his son has become. LesG
November 14, 2006 2:14 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 14, 2006 02:14
Israel has already achieved its one great objective the dismemberment of Iraq.
November 13, 2006 10:00 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 13, 2006 22:00
Things are going from bad to worse in the Middle East. One is reminded of the days prior to WWII. The Cairo peace initiative is not going anywhere as long as Hamas is calling shots in Gaza. Iran wants a conflict, I believe, to distract attention from their complete economic faliure. Whatever Bush's faults, he understands what we are dealing with here. It's going to get ugly folks.
November 13, 2006 6:39 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 13, 2006 18:39
lahoud is a fine man. what he says in public (ant israel) is not always what he really believes. but he can say that in public for fear of his lfe.
most people admire him but at the same time are scared of hezbollah. i do not know what will happen but the proud people of my countr do not want hezbollah to bear arms. then iran will move in and we can not have that.
November 13, 2006 4:20 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 13, 2006 16:20
With the back President Lahoud Hezbollah seems to be winning. Hezbollah has also the backing of Michel Aoun and that should be make it even more dangerous.
November 13, 2006 11:36 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on November 13, 2006 11:36