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Comment Roundup

Readers Foresee Grim Prospects for Lebanon, But Hope in Dialogue

Over the past two weeks, PostGlobal readers imagined an array of post-war Lebanons. While reviewing hundreds of comments on whether Hezbollah would emerge stronger, we were struck that almost all readers said yes. Each, however, foresaw vastly different consequences of the organization's increased power.

As Mark in British Columbia, Canada put it, "Hezbollah's surprising resistance has turned out to be the totally unpredictable wild card in this conflict - if they had been smashed in a few days, Israel's story would likely be the accepted version, since the surrounding Arab leaders were still in a position to condemn Hezbollah." But by hanging in there for so long, he said, Hezbollah has come to a "no-lose" situation where even ultimate defeat looks heroic and inspires potential recruits. In death, Hassan Nasrallah could affect even more minds than he has in life.

Harkadahl in the UK elaborated, "The broadest possible lesson from this conflict is that will cannot be imposed by force. For every Hezbollah fighter killed, two take his place. For every Lebanese civilian killed, a whole family is radicalized." Ari Verveer in the Netherlands similarly argued that while Hezbollah might lose its cache of rockets in the short term, over the coming years "a divided, economically weak and unstable Lebanon can only add to the number of guerrillas Israel will have to face."

Not all readers agreed, however, that Hezbollah would gain strength. Our featured reader, Ben Rosenschein, argued that the war gave Lebanese people a second chance to decide whether Hezbollah was acting in their interests. If not, he suggested, citizens and secular leadership could together force its disarmament once and for all.

Along with the Bostonian Atheist, Rosenschein contended that the response of Israel to the kidnappings was appropriate and regrettably necessary. Both writers invited their U.S. readers to imagine a violent Mexican gang attacking Los Angeles with rockets. "Now, what would you do?" they asked.

An extended debate over the character of Hezbollah ensued. Israeli panelist Saul Singer adamantly refuted his colleague Ali Ettefagh's characterization of Hezbollah as a "resistance movement". Saul said it was a "transnational terror" organization that must be completely incapacitated.

When reader Daniel Miller asked Saul, "What exactly would a legitimate resistance movement look like if not Hezbollah?" Saul responded, "If Hezbollah's objective were to free Lebanon and were it not an Iranian implant out to destroy Israel, then it would have disarmed itself in 2000, when Israel withdrew completely from Lebanon. The claim that Hezbollah built such a massive force to "liberate" Shebaa Farms is risible."

The important point, says Saul along with many of our readers that "Iran and Syria are even more to blame for this war than Lebanon." Should Israel open a third front against Syria? reader Jacques Saleh asked. Saul entertained the idea, but said Israel could not stretch itself too thin. The following week, in a PostGlobal Live Debate from Jerusalem and Beirut, Saul Singer and Michael Young both called upon the international community to deal forcefully with Iran.

They said that was the best hope for Lebanon, which could soon be embroiled in civil war. Hezbollah would inherit a Lebanon flush with anger and confusion and as an empowered party, it would refocus widespread frustration onto its domestic political foes. Meanwhile, Hezbollah would silence opposition and enforce firm Shiite hegemony. With Iran's aid, a Shiite crescent would then develop across the region, both warned, challenging minorities and secular regimes and spurring multiple conflicts. Reader MikeB worried that World War III could be in the works.

Yet as Daoud Kuttab wrote hopefully from Amman, Jordan. The horrors of war could have some salutary effect if high toll makes Israel wary unilateral action and Hezbollah reluctant to engage in violence. If followed by intensive international engagement, Kuttab suggested, in the end the war may awe citizens into accepting a more lasting peace.

With diplomacy and Iran at the center of this two-week-old debate, and with the recent refusal by Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, we sent the following question to our panel, and invite you to join the debate:


Officials from Tehran reportedly refused to halt uranium enrichment, instead offering the United Nations a "new formula" for further negotiations.

Is Iran just trying to buy time? Should the UN negotiate more with Iran, or impose sanctions because of its failure to comply?

Let us know what you think.

Two additional notes:

»On Monday, July 31st, Henry Kissinger wrote an op-ed in the Post saying the U.S. must engage Iran on more than the nuclear issue. Is this an opportunity?

»And tomorrow, Thursday at noon ET, Ali Ettefagh from Tehran will be online to answer questions about life in Iran and the nuclear deal. Click here to pose question now.

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Comments (6)

Zathras:

Kissinger sounded three weeks ago as if he thought we had more options with respect to Iran than the administration or most commentators do. Though I think he is right, having options and being able to take advantage of them are not the same thing.

Kissinger had in 1971 not only his own formidable talents but the full backing of a President deeply knowledgable about foreign affairs. Sec. Rice is not Henry Kissinger, and George Bush is not Richard Nixon. This complicates matters enormously, however I still believe America's position here is potentially stronger, and the Iranian government's weaker, than fashionable opinion holds.

Atheist, Boston, USA:

Thank you for giving credit to me for my idea, but your web link to my essay is broken and does not work.

Below is the correct web link.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/2006/08/07/hezbollah_in_postwar_lebanon/comments.html#c542246

Enjoy the essay.

Anushiravan Dadgar, D.O. vuzavega@hotmail.com:

i am responding to your new question(s) regarding the iranian nuclear program. according to the terms of the npt, iran is within its legal international rights to obtain, develope, and use nuclear technology for civilian use. so far, there has been no proof that iran is doing anything to the contrary. furthermore, all of iran's leaders have pledged against developing nuclear arms. therefore it is not surprising that iran would reject the halting of uranium enrichment for civilian use demanded by the EU and the US soley based on legal grounds granted to iran under the npt. furthermore, the suspension of uranium enrichment should come perhaps as an end result of engagment and negotiations not as a pre-requisit for discussions. denying iran its rights given to it under the npt only demonstrates the disrespect and double standard that the EU an US have towrds the npt, and its "inferior" non-nuclear states. the next logical move for iran would be to withdraw from the npt and expell all the nuclear inspectors on the grounds that its rights are not respected by the very countries who wrote the rules and regulations. this will lead to iran doing what it wants without the knowledge of the rest of the world further increasing the knowlege/intelligence gap that already exists. as for the sanctions, what good will they do when it will only apply to non-oil related products. iran is sitting on an excess of $60 Billion in cash reserves and all it needs is china and russia as trading partners to over come any sanctions. there are those who think that in the event iran were to resign its membership from the npt ,the US and israel would carry out an aerial bombardment of iran's nuclear, governmental, and military sites ought to be reminded that israel, was and is unable to overcome 3-4000 hezbollah fighters, let alone iran as a nation! additionally, the US would be extremely short sighted to think that attacking iran would go unanswered...as it will surely result in revenge attacks by iran directly and indirectly on the US interests throughout the globe including in afghanestan, iraq, saudi arabia, and israel. as such, the only resonable option would be to entice and engage iran to limit its nuclear ambitions by offering not just a few "carrots" but a "whole field full of carrots". the US's position of not dealing with iran is resulting in the US becoming "obsolete and sterile" in the arena of diplomacy particularliy when it comes to the middle east. dealing in good faith with iran will lead to resolve or near resolution of the many the problems in lebanon, iraq, iran and to a lesser extent afghanestan. but the US must be wiiling to give-up alot and offer alot of concessions if they want resolution of hostilities and peace in the middle east. so far, the face of "the new middle east" that president bush would like to create is quikly becoming vaporized, "like the faces we cannot remember in our dreams."

Srikanth Raghunathan:

Give diplomacy a chance! Let us go into any situation with a clean sheet of paper, without preconceived notions; term and conditions; and ideological constraints. Let us treat it as if it were a business negotiation.

Dinkar Koppikar:

If Mr. Kissinger advocates engaging Iran, how could US foreign policy establishment resist it? Kissinger initiated engagement with China in 1971 with beneficial results for all to see. There is no reason to believe that engagement with Iran will be less fruitful. But America should be realistic, not dictatorial.

PostGlobal is an interactive conversation on global issues moderated by Newsweek International Editor Fareed Zakaria and David Ignatius of The Washington Post. It is produced jointly by Newsweek and washingtonpost.com, as is On Faith, a conversation on religion. Please send your comments, questions and suggestions for PostGlobal to Lauren Keane, its editor and producer.