by Nayan Chanda
New Haven, USA - As long as oil and gas continue to fuel the global economy, no importer can enjoy prosperity with the Middle East in turmoil. This is particularly true for heavily oil-dependent China and India. The two countries may not display outward concern about the clash between Israel and Hezbollah, but they are acutely aware of the risks of a prolonged conflict.
That China dispatched its top Arabic-speaking diplomat Sun Bigan to the Middle East to talk to the parties in conflict was not front-page news, but it marked the first time in my recollection that China has directly and openly involved itself in pursuing an end to the region's conflict.
Beijing's motivations are clear. China is the world's third-largest importer of oil, half of which comes from the Persian Gulf. It cannot afford to let the growing conflict to affect its vital supply. The mainland is particularly concerned about preserving its relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran. In April, Chinese President Hu Jintao made an historic visit to Saudi Arabia, which is China's main supplier of oil as well as a country with which it has a long-standing military relationship. Chinese military personnel reportedly maintain the intermediate-range missiles that Beijing sold to the kingdom. With Iran, China has a $100 billion deal to import 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas over a 25-year period.
In addition to nurturing these vital relations, China also has to remain on good terms with major Islamic powers while it clamps down on Islamic militants at home in Xinjiang. The fact that a U.S. veto has blocked the sale of Israeli AWACS and other defense technologies to China has also allowed Beijing to adopt a more pro-active and pro-Islamic stance.
India, on the other hand is more constrained. It relies on the Middle East for most of its energy as well as for remittances from Indians working in the Gulf, amounting to some $20 billion a year. While Israel has emerged as an important defense partner in recent years, India's large domestic Muslim population, coupled with its ongoing tensions with Pakistan and its traditional ties with Iran and the Gulf, limit Delhi's options. India thus voted at the UN Human Rights Council to condemn Israel's military assault on Lebanon, but has avoided emulating China's high-profile involvement in the current Middle East crisis.
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Comments (7)
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May 15, 2008 4:29 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on May 15, 2008 16:29
The idea that India is constrained in its foreign policy in the Gulf because of a large Muslim minority is simplistic, and dangerous. It completely ignores the fact that India has chosen to exercise rather drastic measures in curtailing militancy in Kashmir, which is in its own territory. You would think that if the 140 million Muslims living in India had some effect on its policies it would show in the way that India handles Jammu & Kashmir.
The main reason that Nehru and many Indians had problems with Israel was that it was viewed as yet another example of a small European minority imposing its will on a native, non-European population. Many Indians (as well as a huge number of people in the rest of the post-colonial world) still consider this to be the case, and the images of a heavily armed modern military force (the IDF) imposing its will on poor, rock-wielding opponents further reinforces that image. You cannot tell from a photograph if a person is Jewish, Muslim, Christian, Druze or any other religious affiliation. You can tell if they are better-armed or not.
This is not seen as just a Muslim issue, but rather an issue of oppression where public sympathy lies with the underdog, no matter if it is justified or not.
India's foreign policy choices are difficult because it has not yet figured out whether it wishes to be viewed as a champion of a non-Western model (as China is doing) or as part of the current club. The best example of that is of India's vote against Iran's nuclear adventurism in September 2005.
India plays to a far wider public than just its domestic audience, especially that of its domestic Muslim population. To privilege the power of its domestic Muslim constituency as the top motivator for Indian decisionmaking belittles the position of the country in the world, as well as avoids the fact that Israel's current actions in Lebanon are seen in most of the post-colonial world as improper. China is playing to that sentiment, while India cannot do so more openly than it has done.
These are bigger issues, and more problematic ones. It doesn't help to ignore them.
August 15, 2006 8:37 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on August 15, 2006 08:37
China is a long way from becoming a superpower. The stories of China's ascendance are overblown. Clearly the potential is there, but there are a lot of problems domestically that the Chinese need to tackle before they can divert much of their attention outwardly. The problems of governing 1.3 billion people are often underestimated in the Western media, and a note of hysteria tends to creep into any discussion of China's growing prominence, especially in the US media.
August 15, 2006 3:24 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on August 15, 2006 03:24
while the US fights wars with muslims, china is waiting, lurking in the background. when Bush gets his "peace" china will be the world superpower.
August 14, 2006 2:24 PM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on August 14, 2006 14:24
China is indeed engaging the Middle East to protect its own oil interests, but there are other reasons for China's Mideast strategy. The Middle East also provides a strong market for China's defense industries, while additionally offering an international "buffer zone" between the US and China that allows China to pursue its objectives with less attention from the US.
China clearly depends on a steady supply of oil to fuel its domestic economic development. If any war in the Middle East were to become a regional conflict that dramatically affects world oil markets, then China would suffer along with all other countries that depend upon the importation of oil for their continued development. This situation would precipitate a short-term energy crisis in China that would depress economic conditions.
However, It is true that China has diplomatically positioned itself well in terms of access to world oil markets. In order to secure a measure of stable access to oil markets, China has worked hard to develop strong diplomatic ties with a variety oil rich states in and outside the Middle East, including Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela. This diversification offers some insulation from oil shocks, although this does not guarantee full protection from the effect of socio-political instability on oil markets.
Further, in some ways a crisis in the Middle East would actually benefit China. First and foremost, any Mid-East crisis will absorb US attention and resources, diverting US attention from China. The longer any such crisis persists, the more room China has to continue their path of development without direct resistance from the US on issues such as human rights and Taiwan relations.
Another potentially positive effect of a Middle East crisis on China's development is related to arms markets. China sells weapons to several states in the Middle East, including Iran and Syria. For example, during the Hussein regime in Iraq, China assisted in the upgrade of Iraqi air defenses after the 1991 Gulf War. Any crisis in the Middle East provides an opportunity for China's position within international arms markets to improve, encouraging the further expansion of China's defense industries.
Given all of these reasons, overall the crisis in the Middle East provides a real opportunity for China to continue rising far into the future.
Rennypolis
August 14, 2006 11:53 AM | Report Offensive Comments
Posted on August 14, 2006 11:53