While it’s true that all the current signals are pointing in the direction of a US-led slowdown in the world economy - relatively high oil prices and low credit availability, to name two - this is not what should be worrying the general public. Instead, the real worry is that current oil prices imply the threat of a looming energy squeeze.

The financial troubles of our day could well have been anticipated; U.S. consumer growth was in a six-year 'boom' and the time for the 'bust' phase of the infamous business cycle would eventually come. Therefore, there is no doubt that global markets can absorb this expected bust phase and recover without major disruptions to the financial order. Also, in recent years emerging markets have matured to a level at which a downturn in the US economy is no longer the end of the world. So a global financial doomsday is not what we are set for.

Yet a doomsday scenario based on the shortage of energy resources is not out of question. By many measures US$100 is not necessarily a high price for oil. In fact, it is still considerably cheap compared to global energy agencies’ projections made two decades ago. In the long run, as former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan openly explains in his memoir The Age of Turbulence, by 2020 the growing world economy will need more oil than can be produced, and a rally in oil prices is inevitable. The main drivers of this demand will be the economies of China and India. Come 2020, the power of those two giant economies will also have coupled with their political ambitions, which is an alarming development for world peace.

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We can summarize Turkish people's expectations for the coming year in three sentences: They want change. They want more of a say. And they want sympathy from the international community.

After five years of economic growth and unprecedented socio-political change, the Turkish people finally hit some rocks in 2007. Starting with the secularist protests that attracted crowds of millions, and the government's stand-off with the military in April, the political climate had become quite harsh by the time elections arrived in July. Although Turkish democracy came out stronger when the problem resolved itself through the reassuring election victory of the ruling AKP, the tensions did not ease and polarizations grew deeper. All this had slowed down the pace of political reform in the country, but it also accelerated the democratic awareness and the desire for change among Turkish people.

The re-election of the reformist AKP was a clear sign that the Turkish people were happy with the pace of reforms on all fronts and wanted to see the process gain momentum again. Turks are probably annoyed by the roadblocks but certainly are not tired yet. This is reflected in this moth's poll results showing that the AKP has increased its support to 51% from a 47% election victory. Currently no other political party, excluding the pro-Kurdish DTP, offers political reform at the top of their agenda. This is clearly why AKP's support keeps growing despite its widely-criticized security policies.

The latest in the string of events to add to Turkey's political turmoil were the deadly PKK attacks on military and civilian targets, which left Turkish people in an angry, nationalist outrage. Protests against the PKK, some of which bordered or perhaps crossed the line of racism, were common in Turkish cities last month. Almost all windows had a Turkish flag waving in a show of unity against the attacks. To many observers who were following 2007’s political tensions, Turkey looked like a country almost about to explode with political anger.

When I look at Turkey, my native country, I also see a country that is about to explode. Yet this is not an explosion of anger but one that resembles the breaking of a shell. Given the hot-blooded nature of our people, I believe the nationalist reaction will soon fade and yield to real demands that will result in change.

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