Countries often drive one another crazy because of the disproportionate influence of special interests like the Cuban lobby in the U.S. Think of the Bay of Pigs invasion or the outsourcing of Castro's assassination to the Mafia. But the problem is not only that this lobby drives the United States to do idiotic things but that it also induces an acute amnesia in U.S. politicians, which makes them forget everything the world has painfully learned about the transition from communism.

As I've argued before in a column for Foreign Policy, this knowledge can be distilled into five simple maxims: Lesson one: Failure is more common than success in the transition to a democratic market economy. Lesson two: The less internationally integrated, more centralized, and more personalized a former communist regime was, the more traumatic and unsuccessful its transition will be. Lesson three: Dismantling a communist state is far easier and faster than building a functional replacement for it. Lesson four: The brutal, criminal ways of a powerful Communist party with a tight grip on public institutions are usually supplanted by the brutal, criminal ways of powerful private business conglomerates with a tight grip on public institutions. Lesson five: Introducing a market economy without a strong and effective state capable of regulating it gives resourceful entrepreneurs more of an incentive to emulate Al Capone than Bill Gates.

So, when Fidel finally leaves the scene, Cuba will likely end up looking more like Albania than the Bahamas. Yet U.S. planners assume, as they did with Iraq, that democracy will instantly emerge and that exiles will lead other investors in transforming the country into a capitalist paradise.

More likely is that instead of a massive flow of foreign investment into Cuba, the United States will get a massive inflow of refugees fleeing chaos on the island. (Hence Cuban-born Florida Senator Mel Martinez's appeal for people to stay put after Castro dies.) Frictions between Cuban-Cubans and Miami-Cubans will make politics nasty and unstable. And because the Cuban public sector is inextricably intertwined with the Communist Party, the demise of the party will paralyze the government.

Absurdly, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund are forbidden by the United States from spending even a dollar preparing for this coming chaos.

It is into this vacuum that Venezuela's president, Hugo Chavez, plans to step. Chavez -- flush with oil cash -- will instantly extend the hand of friendship to Raul Castro. The deliveries of cheap oil will continue as Venezuela steps up its sponsorship of the Cuban economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. embargo will remain. Cementing the alliance with post-Fidel Cuba will be Chavez's top foreign policy priority. By contrast, Bush has his hands full, to put it politely, with the Middle East right now. Hugo Chavez will gleefully exploit this situation, influencing Cuba and driving the United States mad.