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This appears a well thought out analysis. I wonder, is the upshot:1. America will remain at odds with the middle east majority as long as America supports Isreal. 2. The US never should have supported the Shia in Iraq because that was really a support of Shia in Iran. 3. Really, the only issue here is when Tehran obtains nuclear capacity.

Its a great pleasure to read Mr. Akbar's article after quite some time , growing up in Calcutta when The Telegraph was born under Mr Akbar's supervision we all had only one dream , to get a job in Telegraph .

Coming to this Iraq point I am still very much skeptical of the fact that Saudi Arabia will let slip Iraq out of their hand so easily .Iraq becoming a predominantly a shiaite state with Iran by their side will be a huge loss for Saudis , they won't be able to rule the middle east anymore the way they are doing now or they wish to ofcourse with the blessings of America.

But if they become Shia-majority , then it will be interesting to watch which factor gets more importance - the rift between Saudis and the rest of Shia majority middle East Or they will join in hands to fight for the Palestinians.
The American President will have a very big role to play , failing will not be an option as that will mean a grim future for the Israel.

If we ally with Iran against Isreal it is many people's religious beliefs that this action will signify the beginning of the end of the world. With the present dictator in Iran, I would believe it. The USA needs to get out of the mid-east for as our bible predicts "the world will end where it began". I truly believe that allying ourselves with Iran would be the worst possible thing that we could do.

If we ally with Iran against Isreal it is many people's religious beliefs that this action will signify the beginning of the end of the world. With the present dictator in Iran, I would believe it. The USA needs to get out of the mid-east for as our bible predicts "the world will end where it began". I truly believe that allying ourselves with Iran would be the worst possible thing that we could do.

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How can anyone predict the future with any accuracy. One can only speculate. What if Iran does produce a bomb and drops on Isreal. Isreal will respond swiftly. The US responding to terrorist acts plus the US needs oil. What better opportunity then to take out a weak country like Iraq was. I do not promote war, but radicals started the process and Saddam didn't submit to UN resolutions. Saddam got what he deserved along with his family and henchman. The Iraqi populace is suffering no doubt, but Iraqis are killing Iraqis and that's not the US's fault, afterall we pouring $$ trying to rebuild stuff as usual. The problem is the crazy people blowing themselves up in places of worship, in markets where people buy food or planting roadside explosives. Do those acts do any good?

" jimmy, phoenix:

The writer has no vision at all. In 2017 CHINA will be the new SUPERPOWER. The US is bussy fighting a weak countries like iraq, spending so much money 500 billion so far, most of it borrowed from china and saudi. China will be the only winner when the war with iraq is over. The neocons had israel's benefit in mind, but it turns out that china is the winner."

Good point, Jimmy: China is the winner. But Israel is high on China's weapons vendor list and will fatten its treasury while China takes the risks, just as Israel benefited from selling weaponry to Iran during the Iran-Iraq war, whereby Israel accomplished two goals: prolonging the war and decimation of Iranians, while fattening its treasury. (Iran's mistake was carrying out conservative policies and paying its debts on time.)

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I resent Bush because he gave justification to the defeatests in this country: he and a moronic cadre of 'yes' officers and civilians fought this war terribly.
But in the future? Pundits say we're in for it? Again the defeatests portray the worst scenarios. What's going to happen is our enemies will hit us again in a pretty terrible way. Then, and only then, will my USA strike massively without concern for world opinion. We will slaughter millions of 'innocent' civilians...who support the terrorists now. When we make those 'innocents'scream with pain and fear the support for terrorists will wane dramatically. I look forward to the day when my USA again fights wars without trying to be nice. We'll see just how tough the islamists and other enemies, including governments and civilians, are when THE INNOCENTS start to pay in blood. Right now Bush is a farce and failure. The right man will come along, I'm confident of that.

Most of the comments from americans, with the odd exception , leave me shaking my head in disbelief.... are the citizens of the worlds only super power so naive, as to echo bushes blah blah about the american way being the only way?

People seem to forget the laws of unintended consequences, especially when predicting the future. Is it likely that Turkey will try to prevent an independent Kurdish state? Maybe. But its also possible that Turkey in ten years will support a Kurdish state in the UN (especially after their peace talks with Kurdish seperatists five years from now). The balkanization of Iraq will likely happen, but that doesn't mean that the Sunnis will be driven out. They may very well carve out their own state in Central/Western Iraq. Don't forget, Arabs and Persians only play nice in front of the cameras. The Arab clerics in Iraq are not likely be mouthpieces of the Persian Revolutionary Council.

So the future is bleak, and the future is optimistic, and the best thing we can do is think about how we make the next week, the next month, and the next year less savage than the past week, month, and year for Iraqi civilians.

To the people who manage the blog- please provide a spell check for the people who want to comment.

To people who comment - take a moment and spell check your comments if you can. Your comments will soon be lost to Internet as Google will continue to help direct users to pages and comments of people who know how to spell.

To the author - It is a thin piece from the thousand pound gorilla of political analysis. Please give us a more considered account of how incidents will unfold and how the kind of counteracting forces that such outcomes will undoubtedly release.

What is it about the US government, that makes it think it can dictate to the world how to act, do business, treat people, etc?? A puppet regime in Iraq in 10 years will be much like our other Middle Eastern allies. A rich, corrupt government, with impoverished people. That is all the US ever succeeds in doing when it interferes in global affairs. As a matter of fact, that is the goal. Cheap labour, no social structures, and the raping and pillaging of that nation's resources. It's the American way, and Iraq will be no different. Capitalism breeds fascism, and the US is living proof.

Yes, the picture you paint will rely HEAVILY on how much influence YOU (the media) has on US (the rest of the free world)going forward. I agree this is the direction you have us headed. However, you will prove to be too fickle to promote any sort of long term deception. You're all just too trigger happy to hold any measure of credibility aside from brief periods of "Bandwaggoning". We now near the end of one of these periods. We can't wait to watch as you all scramble to conform as public opinion turns against you once again. Too bad really for the timing is absolutely perfect for you to start telling the truth and become a pillar in the free world by doing nothing more than that which you were designed to do. But, sadly, you will continue exhibiting abberant behaviors of trying to SHAPE public opinion rather than reporting the facts right up to the point when "we the people" turn to other sources for our NEWS. What a pity.

Iran will gain the full control of the oil fields..in Iraq .control gasoline prices ... !
and control the marketing of fuel oil
supplies to non- Arab nations!
Iran will then have a complete domination of oil
when they will do the same thing in..Saudi
Arabia!!!!!

I think from waht ive read from all posts is that generally a good percentage of posters here do not know what they are talkin about. To Christian, it is your religious fervor that is screwing american politics....theres a reason for separation of church and state.

But to everyone else,

The Situation in Iraq is degrading into another Vietnam, the enemy is no longer a regular military force but an insurgent force that is capable of blending in with the populace. To remedy this situation the US must rethink its strategy and win the hearts of the Iraqis...no more busting down doors its time to act and treat Iraqis with respect and dignity. No more Neocon bull.

To those who think if the US leaves here are the implications....OPEC will drive prices higher as oil production goes down due to civil war in Iraq....Iran wont control Iraq as there is a history of conflict between the shia of both countries...Iran most likely will try to gain sway over them peacefully and then attempt to control the oil fields.

The distrust and divisons in islam have a chance of spraking a regional religious civil war if the region does not out of goodwill and their interest to help stabilize Iraq as we can see the turmoil in Iraq will spread to the region.

What the US to do is get the region into rebuilding Iraq and curb Iran.....

Its not easy reading an article like this. It paints a very bleak picture, without identifying the real artist of so much grief...Islam. The military order founded by the arab Muhammad has always been, and continues to be, a serious threat to world peace. http://jessemtoler.blogspot.com/

No Crime goes un paid for.
Question is Who is the Judge?
Question is of Patience and Prayer.
Question is of Who decides?

If we are looking for "paid human beings" to pronounce judgements, surely we are wrong.

There is Biggest and Highest Judge of All who will take every one's accounts of Right and Wrong. It is to Him, The Almighty we look and pray with hope to give us Justice with Peace and not mortal and paid human beings.

Israel wanted to make Peace with Hamas, Harry!

It is your Man behind Bush who did not want it.They imposed Fatah on Israelis and force them to talk to only Fatah, the ones who are paid by USA directly.

Now tell me, how can there be Peace if you talk to your own paid bootlickers like "Fatah" and not those democratically elected "Hamas". What exactly is America promoting? Why should Americans come between Israelis and Palestinians ? Why should Blair run to Israel, when Olmert wants to talk to Hamas. Why should Rice run to Israel , Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt when Olmert declares, that he wants to talk to Hamas?

If Israel bought cluster bombs or Americans sold it, matter is the same. They both made a transaction for a purpose, with an intent.
How can one be innoncent and oblivious of what it contributed to?

Americas destroyed democracy in Palestine. It destroys democracy else where if it doesn't suit its greed and power.It fakes every election in the World. It sends observers under the guise of UN and approves it, if results are in favour of its favourable candidate, who beforehand has promised or is willing to sell the land of his nation piece by piece for pea nuts to Corporates.

If despite its manipulations if other candidate gets elected, it calls it fraudulent and puts it on CNN and BBC and calls the one elected as corrupt and fraudulent because that guy did not want to sell his nation's land or resources to outside of nation Corporates and their allies or what ever you may call it.

Even your George Bush is elected by fraud.

STOP USING ELECTRONIC FRAUD MACHINES.

Then you will not have corrupt and stupids like Goerge Bush coming to power.Voting system in Corporate Board rooms and "Neutral" UN agencies , will not be corrupted.

No single nation's people or culture in this World are good or bad.

Ultimately it matters, individually, who stands up for what.

Don't forget, that any region or culture or nation has been protected by its time.
Once its time is over, nothing in this World will stop it from going to grave.

Today what we are seeing is: Remarkable signs of how some nations like America and its allies materially appear to grow high but in reality are running towards their End.

Any ways, if Atlantis is the destiny of Americas, let us watch the remake of how Atlantis has been erased from this earth.

Hmm! What a nice chance of our lives to re-discover and understand, how people in Atlantis must have behaved in past, to contribute to their own End--The End.

Israel won't survive. And shouldn't. Americans are not stupid, they saw the summer war in Lebanon, the savagery of our "friends" with thearmaments we gave them (oh, excuse me, Israel bought those cluster bombs with "loans' the US gave).
And Americans are sick of being hated dangerously by the rest of the world because of Israel, and of losing our identity as a beacon
(ha) of justice. And decency.
And once there's an investigation of AIPAC, as there's going to be...and when Americans demand that the leeches' tentacles are removed from our treasury and soul, we'll be safer.
And who will pay the price for Israel's behavior since l947? Who should?

Don't predict based on today's happenings, for no one knows what is in store for tomorrow.Today America and its fascism exists because "serpentine media" made it exist.From inside it is already gone case.

Every civilisation has its time and then it is destined to go down.Looks like America is efficiently digging its grave with its own hands.
When destruction is written in the destiny of any culture or any civilisation, any good words of retreating back from destruction falls on deaf ears.More you tell, faster he will run towards his own destruction.

George Bush has decided to take revenge on his country's men and women by sending them to War, ofcourse, ofcourse with tongue in his cheek and wink in his eye and salute to rest of the World, sending silent messages that, he is the one who will punish Americans for all the ills they committed until now, right from Vietnam War to blood sucking leeches and lying corporates.

Whole World understood George Bush's wink of vengenace against Americans, except Americans themselves.That shows the IQ level of Americans and the Indians who advise/support him in his advisory panel.

Losers talk bravely with imposed courage,just like George Bush does.After this one can confidently say, George Bush is The- (yet to be seen- )lowest IQ President in American history elected by fraud, planted by fraud, continued in office by fraud and commited fraudulent war.

Can we expect anything better from low IQ?

Low IQ is a Low IQ is a Low IQ.

Americans who tolerate a low IQ as their President are sub-zero lowest of the lowest of the low IQS.Low IQs like George Bush and his advisory panel do not need parameters of intellectualism to understand them.

Did you ever hear a proverb?:" Bandar ke haath mein gudgudi"

or even

Monkey suddenly got hold of coconut and on the top of it, it has been declared King and as if it is not enough, it has been asked to sit on the top of the mountain. Poor monkey, what will it do?Either it has to take that coconut and hit it on its own head ot hit on other's head to pinch itself to believe that it really became the King.

Such is the nature of monkeys and
Such is the nature of Presidents.

It is really funny to watch monkeys. They behave exactly like some humans except that they have been deducted of one pair of chromosome, for the ills they committed in their soul history.

Watch and have fun. Beware. stay away from such low iqs, lest you are in danger of falling into the same category.

Garak, I think you popped that nail right on the head, Bap!

The US has moved from a position of subtle, to one of overt fascism over the decades since Eisenhower gave his speech referring the "military-industrial complex". Two of the central pillars of fascism are the convergence of corporate and government (military) power, and the demonizing of the "other" (whether Jews, socialists, or perhaps Islamists).

Who is making money from the current American led campaigns? Who is being demonized by the rhetoric? Besides this how many laws have been passed in this country in the last six years that actually promote democracy and a balance of powers? How many have subverted these things?

This is the present reality here at home and it's logic is well articulated by many on this site. Fascism, however, is only one, and rather human, trend toward global escalation of the chaos principle which we are watching unfold. . .

What the future (In the middle east, Americas, and everywhere) holds will be determined largely by factors to vast for any analysis to really hold water. Except perhaps the most simplistic - many people are likely to die. Sadly, Christian's naive sounding biblical apocalyptic stance is probably as accurate as any posted here.

Two of the deepest problems stemming from a global economy based on fossil fuel use, global warming and depletion of the resource base, are likely to push the death toll into the billions over the next fifty years or so. . . violent confrontation is probably just a sign of the beginning. . .

Maybe technology will fix it all, but that belief sounds a lot like the faith professed by religious adherents to me. A world like that depicted in Children of Men is probably just as likely, and fascism is sadly central to that scenario, as people try to control what is not within their control.

But maybe people have free will and choices after all. . . Maybe there is not only one, single possible scenario for the future.

Iraq in 2017? Well it would be a good idea! (to paraphrase Gandhiji's comment on Western Civilisation!)

Dear Mr. Akbar,

After constantly being exposed to the "holier than thou" ridicule of the people believing only in Judeo-Christian values and truths, myself at loss to understand what they are after the bloody history of Europe, Nazi camps, Stalinistic purges, the 2 world wars, Vietnam, colonization, and the extermination of original Americans, etc, opinion like yours are a breath of fresh air. I greatly appreciate it. Please don't get discouraged by the negative comments of the zealots. They are probably laying bare the hate they are exposed to in their formative years. They believe that the only reason the US lost in Vietnam was that it did not use the "ultimate" weapon, and it was good for the soul of the Native Americans to be exterminated, as the rest of them got the opportunity to find the "ultimate truth". A typical response one comes across in North America, is that those people of the Middle East have something crazy in them and their history is so bizarre. As if the history of Europe and North America and other things like Zionism, Israel, and Colonialism have existed on Mars! If Bush et al want to change to curricula of the madressas teaching hate, the better place to start would be the schools where they themselves were schooled. These responses probably prove that you are hitting a raw nerve of these "holier than thous". A job well done, I must add.

Dear Mr. Akbar,

After constantly being exposed to the "holier than thou" ridicule of the people believing only in Judeo-Christian values and truths, myself at loss to understand what they are after the bloody history of Europe, Nazi camps, Stalinistic purges, the 2 world wars, Vietnam, colonization, and the extermination of original Americans, etc, opinion like yours are a breath of fresh air. I greatly appreciate it. Please don't get discouraged by the negative comments of the zealots. They are probably laying bare the hate they are exposed to in their formative years. They believe that the only reason the US lost in Vietnam was that it did not use the "ultimate" weapon, and it was good for the soul of the Native Americans to be exterminated, as the rest of them got the opportunity to find the "ultimate truth". A typical response one comes across in North America, is that those people of the Middle East have something crazy in them and their history is so bizarre. As if the history of Europe and North America and other things like Zionism, Israel, and Colonialism have existed on Mars! If Bush et al want to change to curricula of the madressas teaching hate, the better place to start would be the schools where they themselves were schooled. These responses probably prove that you are hitting a raw nerve of these "holier than thous". A job well done, I must add.

I can't believe M J Akbar is being so ahistorical in this article. Assuming some form of democracy succeeds in Iraq, yes, it is true that it will be a majority Shia country, but I think the numbers are 60-40 or so, not a huge predominance. The scenario of "most Sunnis will have left" can only happen if the Shias win a clear military victory in the current civil war, and proceed on to ethnic cleansing. The odds that they will be allowed to do that, without other interests like Saudis interfering, are close to zero.

So IMO the realistic scenario is some kind of loose and messy half-democracy, maybe Lebanon style.

If that's the case, forecasting that the new Arab Iraq will ally with Persian Iran and try to defeat Israel is pure fantasy. All the wars that Israel fought have been with its Arab neighbors, never with Iran (unless you count the Lebanon / Hezbollah proxy war). Iran has no particular issues with Israel, historically. Ahmedinejad is carrying on a one-man personal jihad against Israel, but it's not even clear how much support he has, or will have 10 years from now.

American military will still be in the area now called Iraq. America is in the middle East to make oil flows without interruption. Ten years from now the world will still need oil from the middle East.

Iraq will still be one state. America will make sure of that.

There will be more and more Islamic terrorists. Europe and America will come to the conclusion Muslims and non Muslims can't coexist. The clash of civilizations will start.

Mr. Akbar can't be objective. He sees the world as a Muslim, not as a historian. So no one should take him seriouly.

My prediction is as long as world needs oil flow from the middle east, the west will be there in force. In ten years oil from middle east may not be as important as it is today. In that case the west may leave.

Islam will not let the world live in peace. There will be more and more followers of Bin laden. The umma will wage war against non Muslims all over the world. The world doesn't yet fully grasp the unity and the power of Umma. Muslims can't belong to nations. Their faith doesn't permit it. A true Muslim belongs to Umma( the global community of Muslims).

Finally the west will realise that Muslims can't be permitted to live with them. So the west will declare war against Umma.

To those americans who think the US wants democracy in iraq to be a model for arab states, I have one question: Why dont you encourage democracy in jordan and egypt, they will accept democracy becasue of US Aid. Also kuwait, qatar, bahrain will move to democracy if US nudges them becasue of military protection.
Does any american believe the neocons propaganda, all the neocons - jewish and evangelical zionists - have in mind is advancing israel hegemony, they dont even have the US interests in mind.

The writer has no vision at all. In 2017 CHINA will be the new SUPERPOWER. The US is bussy fighting a weak countries like iraq, spending so much money 500 billion so far, most of it borrowed from china and saudi. China will be the only winner when the war with iraq is over. The neocons had israel's benefit in mind, but it turns out that china is the winner.

Christian Canadian:
Please do not defile Jesus.

Re Christian canadian,were you not fighting the forces of evil when you killed ten million pagan American and Canadian indians.Give it a rest already you hypocrite.

The Iraqi-Iranian alliance already exists! Hardly a week goes by without the international press reporting on a high level Iraqi official visiting Iran, or of a new trade, economic, defense or security agreement between the two countries. Iran has already agreed to rebuild Iraq's oil industry in exchange for a share of the wealth. It has just been announced that Iraqi president Talibani will be visiting Syria, thus the efforts to build a three-way Iranian-Iraqi-Syrian alliance continues.

This story has been ignored by the President and Congress, and unfortuntely the American press as well. But it is well reported in the foriegn press. Reading English language Arab news websites, they consider us suckers for supporting an Iraqi government which is in league with Iran.

It's hard to believe some people still fall for the 1939 analogy. The correct analogy is that it's 1939 and we go to war with Franco, ignoring Hitler, Stalin, and Tojo. But I guess some people just can't admit they were wrong, so those who rah-rahed Bush to attack Iraq and give Osama bin Forgotten a get-out-of-jail-free card continue to have their heads inserted in that part of their anatomy in which the sun does not shine.

The "will to win" post was hilarious. This was a classic Nazi propoganda slogan. Hitler lost WW II for a number of reasons, not the least of which was that he interferred with his generals, ignored their professional military advice, and thought he knew best. Remind you of anyone at 1600 Penn. Ave?

Ein Volk, ein reich, ein W!

The Iran-led economic-military alliance will demand payment for oil in Euros forcing OPEC to back the Euro. Result: countries
switching to euro reserves from dollar reserves bringing down the value of the greenbacks and we can say "Sayonnara" to the US economic bullying.Hopefully a peaceful Middle East (let's keep dreaming.......)

Patriot:
Islam has been hijacked by radical extremists in the same way as Christianity has been hijacked by its extremists.
What part of "thou shalt not kill" you do not understand.

Christian:

To paraphrase you: "My religion is better than youuuuuuurs......" "blah , blah, blah..."

Grow up already. Come to think of it, maybe religion should be taught in schools; elementary schools, since that is really the only place for the sort of "maturity" people like you display...

US have been Iran's best friends during the past years. They have removed two major enemies of Iran: The Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam in Iraq. You will see that within 50 years, Afganistan will be annexed to Iran (both countries are persian) and Iraq will do the same and become part of Iran (both countirs are Shia). By removing these two enemies, Iran has become a regional super power. Iran has 8 years of war behind it and has developed a very powerful weapon industry, with lots of innovations (the reason why Israel was not able to break Hizbollah in Lebanon). Once these two countries will be annexed to Iran, the new entity will become even more powerful. One day Iran will become what it used to be: The persian empire. Believe it or not, the persians are preparing thier come back. And that's not that bad. I think we will have a better world with Persians as super power, than US as super power. US have put the fire all over the world, and now they are becomming a fading power. Ah yes I almost forgot: Dear Americans do not listen to the propaganda of your governement; Iran has no nuclear weapons, and they do not want to get there neither. Stop listening to your (jewish controlled) media, get informed and don't stay stupid!

This makes no sense. Iraqis want american forces to leave and then peace. They dont want yet more war.

I know of one people who love Bush. The Shiites. He turned Iraq into Iran #2. As soon as the Americans pull out( soon for the sake of our troops), Iraq will declare it is part of Iran now. The Shiite section of Afghanistan will do the same. So, you'll have one big country full of Shiites who hate Americans. Long live Bush. Hes done a heckuva of job just like Brownie did with New Orleans.
Israel may have all the weapons in the world thanks to Uncle Sam's taxpayers. But as we have seen in Iraq, Awesome military might doesnt do squat against guerillas and terrorists. Also, all of Israel is only 5 million people.
Can we please have a peace summit now please?

The author of this article is well versed with the middle east, probably better so than some of people running the Iraq War. The picture he paints is very grim. The policy folly he brings out is all too real.

Comparison with the second world war is ridiculous. The second world war was completely different. In that case, an American military base was attacked and a huge military superpower declared war on America. Before that, a dictator took over most of continental Europe and then threatened to take over Britain. That was when America went to War.

And who was America's ally in that war? The Soviet Union! And here, America refuses to even talk to Iran or Syria (Stalin v Ahmedinajad and Assad... its no contest).

The Right v Left argument is wearing thin. This is no longer an issue of ideology, it has become one of competence. The question is, "what is the strategy for victory in Iraq" - political ideology has little to do with it.

The problem has ceased to be about anti-war or pro-war, that is no longer the debate. The debate is, that when you actually get down to it, after all the grand pronouncements and visions, do you really have a clue as to what you are doing?

It is quite clear that the current administration doesn't have a clue. Every single one of its predictions and expectations of this conflict have been off target. There was no street fight for Saddam's Baghdad, the cost estimate was off by 700% (at least), its more likely to be 2000%, they didn't even know when they had won.

One has no problem with visions or grand world changing ideas. They have to be married to the know-how and the wisdom of the day, and the world of the day.

This sadly has been one enormous, expensive reality cheque (pun intended) for Mr. Bush.

Brenda,
The devil should be obvious. If you can't determine who has anti-christ spirit then read a Bible and learn what God is doing 'from above'. Be informed by Him and the Lord Jesus. This isn't a 'manly' conflict, it is much more than that. Not believing in Him and his word or believing something that is not his word won't make the Truth go away, or change. Read Psalm 2 or Psalm 83 or Revelation or Daniel, things are becoming clearer.

Afghanistan does have oil, it is why Unocal made an agreement with the Taliban at the end of the 1990s. The whole Middle East situation is wrong headed. The Chinese and Russians are part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an EU of the east. Iran has a special status. Attacking Iran is going to do what the Cold War couldn't push all the Arab states into the hands of China and Russia. Iran controls the waterways where 23% of our oil passes. The USA is not going to be able to take on China, Russia, and an anti-American Arab world.
These neo-cons and their allies in Israel as well as this administration need some serious meds. They are suffering from delusions of power. Lets get smart cut our loses. We need more jaw jaw and less war war.

Every thing has to do with Oil.
Since Afghanistan had no Oil it was not exciting enough (even though Bin Ladin was there). Somalia has no Oil and hence it is not worth going in. But Darfur and South of Sudan has Oil and it may be the next focus.
What lead to the fall of the Soviet Union??