I'll try to make some predictions:

1. Israel's miscalculation has already ensured that no matter who is in office in post-war Lebanon, Hezbollah will be in power.

2. Washington has already pulled Syria from the "Axis of Evil" and put it into a "box of misfortune." Syria has reoccupied the space that it surrendered with the withdrawal of its troops from Lebanon. The Syria-Iran understanding, if not alliance, will form a new strategic bulwark. In a parallel development, Syria, Iran and Turkey will consolidate and cooperate against any American effort to create a Kurdish state out of a poisoned Iraq.

3. Syria will play an active role in the stalemate that will follow the ceasefire in Lebanon. America will pretend to maneuver by offering self-comforting, ineffectual terms. If Iran does not find a direct place on the table, it will work through Damascus. Hezbollah's new strength means that Iran can no longer be isolated.

4. Israel, which has been changing its definition of victory, will try to eliminate as many of Hezbollah's top leaders as it can in the final stages of this battle (one of the more important in a long war). Sheikh Nasrallah has risen from leader to hero in the last three weeks. If he becomes a martyr, Hezbollah will grow even more powerful.

5. Peace is a word with many meanings, but this much is now certain: Arabs will no longer accept the peace of an Israeli prison. Those 10,000-plus prisoners in Israeli jails, including three hundred children, will now become as much a part of the "basic reasons for conflict" as any other issue.

6. Israel's military action has turned Lebanon's infrastructure into rubble while reducing George Bush to an even more fragile state. Architects will likely rebuild Lebanon in time, but do any of them have a coherent idea about how to fix the White House rubble?