Prezada Miriam,

O tema abordado está muito bom e bem explicado, mas gostaria de comentar alguns pontos que nos tirariam da situação em que se encontra a America Latina.

São eles educação, cultura, conhecimento, e investimentos.

São exatamente as coisas que faltam no nosso Brasil, o dia que todos estes temas juntos forem solucionados nesta ordem vc tenha a certeza que o Brasil crescerá muitissimo.

With technology we may have a higher value.

Just to tackle that point of yours: I think that even this advantage may become relative after all. Technology does not and cannot exist by itself. While, a civilised world based on a balanced political structure will exist by itself in order to govern it all. This is what turns this advantage into something quite relative.

Humm...
My simplified view of your exposition is that we have now the unique opportunity to change the course of things seem to be taking. How? Acting first in the political arena. It is there that de facto decisions are made (we are in a process of re-learning how to manage our riches, peoples, lives...and this is going to be painful)

I see problems with that because many of our politicians are still doing politics as if we were living some 30, 40 years ago. This is enervating! Not only them, but their advisers and sometimes a significant part of our society, the influential part of it.

One of the most difficult things for the human mind is to handle changes -- the human mind rejects changes and fear the unknown. My guess is that we, as a society, and the politicians as a class are still struggling to come to terms with the changes already in place and to accept those under way with the additional term: irreversible attached to them. This is frightening but cannot be avoided.

I believe that the solution depends on serious andcorageous decisions made by our political leaders (those who are true leaders, of course). We will follow by default because it is part of the human nature to follow leaders in difficult times. In principle, there is nothing wrong with that...But they must lead, with no lies, no manipulation or gambling!

If we are unable to seek a consistent, coherent and just political agenda, then is every one on his own and God help us. I am afraid that we are heading toward anarchy. I do not consider myself a catastrophist, but I cannot afford ignoring this possibility. It is a matter of being realist, not dramatic.

If the worst scenario happens, then only the natural process of selection will work to bring life on earth to a balance again.

That is why I stick to my point: our solution is above all political. It is our first and most important instance as a civilised people. But it MUST be another way of doing politics! Another way! Not this one! It is killing us! All of us.

Before economic migration becomes a longed distant debate. Because this Post Global question seem to resume to that underlying idea.

Cristina, your points are well taken. The context of my discussion is the following.

Suppose the sustainable population of the earth was 5 billion and the current population 6 billion. Suppose that the gap of current minus sustainable is a driver of mass extinction of species.

However, suppose the relation is non-linear and includes a cubic term. So we take 1 billion, the gap, and cube it to get 10 to the 27th power. Then we multiply by a coefficient. The result is that any gap in billions above the sustainable population results in a mass extinction of species. But the extinction of species lowers the sustainable population, thus increasing the gap.

History shows that when the human population was 1 to 10 million c. 10,000 BC humans were already causing the extinction of species. If we caused the extinction of Neanderthal, that is at least one some 30,000 years ago.

Historical equilibrium is thus under 10 million. With technology we may have a higher value.

You are talking about what in particular? I cannot reply you objectively as I did not understand what exactly was your point.But I would like to clarify my own understanding on this topic: The population moves I am referred to is closely related to the global warming phenomenon. It is real and it is happening. So far, signs that could indicate that there is an effective move are nt so evident. What we have seen is still related to economic-migration. Normally unskilled work force moving to places they consider they would be better off.

What I am talking about goes beyond that. And it is not going to be any policy from any state that would prevent it. first, the wealthiest will move the best places, then the ones in the middle (escaping famine and drought) and believe me, I do think that Brazil can be one of the destination of that populational influx and it has nothing to do directly with the Amazon river, or to the Amazon forest, not immediately. The relation is not immediate, but rather a consequence of what is to come or may come ahead in result of global warming. In that regard, yes we do need to take steps immediately to counter the worst.

What I have seen, dear poster, is that politicians keeping firmly attached to personal agendas, engendering ways to guarantee their place in history books. Politicians concerned with their legacy (meaning a museum, a library, a nice-looking building, and this alike). What these politicians have not noticed and seem to be unaware of is that we are living another time and there is no place for personal agendas or homage plate in some fancy inauguration of whatever...! That includes politicians from all shades irrespectively.

If nothing is done, soon this issue of economic migration will look so simple to handle! And many of these politicians would miss the times when they would join in the congress to discuss only that!

Something must be done before economic migration turns into something bigger and really out of control. In that regard, I agree (maybe no with you because I didn't get your real point) but I agree hat we are at risk of living a much more complicated problem than that of economic migration. It includes Brazil and Brazilians should wake up once for all (the Brazilian anthen says that Brazil sleeps in a splendorous cradle)

" facing massive population moves. When food, lack of water" Cristina

Brazil already has more fresh water than America in the Amazon. The answer to more population can't be to consume the resources of the earth. The US should not let anyone in. Brazil should close down any more development in the Amazon and not act to push up population, that means stop doing what they are doing to do that.

Myopia is to focus on the now over all else. Current human population is unsustainable. We need to stop pushing things on "indigenous" people they don't want or pay for.

The mass extinction of species underway is lowering the sustainable population even as the current population rises, which in turn lowers the sustainable population by extincting species.

We have to embrace population equilibrium and stop forcing the population up.

There are some people in the US that are simply not able to see the reality. Many of these hide themselves in a mask of racism and prejudice, in the name of a "pure contry", where they won't have to deal with the "unconfortable thing" of sharing life with different cultures.

Rational Man showed some numbers above, took in a tottaly ramdomized way and without any better analysis, typically from blind conservative people like him. In my simply opinion, Rational Man had to show everybody numbers regarding how the average american save with the immigrant workforce. Or people still believe that everyday life would have the same cost with painters, maids, waiters earning almost 20 dollars an hour?

Your money count, Rational Man, is very high. But i can assure you that you save at least the same amount you showed with the work of the same workers you dislike. We have here an equation.

It may sound scary, but I believe sooner tan later, we would be facing massive population moves. When food, lack of water(we cannot drink or eat oil, can we?), heat become a problem on a much larger scale, then you may find this Latin American presence in California a piece of cake
(btw: The land you were born and you called yours used to be Meixican land in the past...so in some twisted way, they are simply going back their to their past. It is US land now, but it hasn't always been and -- I am not Mexican! )

Mary, I am so sad for you. It only proves that I am right. Unfortunately.

Point 1: when I said about this Post Global seems to be read by US readers(native), I wanted to point out that the original objective of launching such a post so-called global aimed at obtaining GLOBAL views on GLOBAL issue...not USA one mostly and almost exclusively. As I read it, more and more I notice that. I have absolutely nothing against US citizens read, support, buy their own products and services. This is legitimate and I would say that it should be encourage. You did not(or could not) get my point: I thought naively that this post was supposed to gather a wide range of different views...internationally ones inclusive.

Point 2: Your prejudice is made so clear in your words. Contrary to me, you seem to be the one who has never left your country. I did and never as an illegal person. Thanks God. I have been to US and UK, Germany, France, Hungary, Italy ... Never illegally, sorry dear. I am not in the US right now, though I could be.

Point 3: If you do not illegal immigrants (I will extrapolate that to the US policies toward immigrants) Why then the US policies seem to be so out of touch with reality? Why these policies are widely perceived as misplaced, restrictive and unfair toward those who would like to have a legal status in your country? I think I am in a position to say that no one wishes or seeks to be or to remain illegal. It is an absurd to imagine that is what one expects when moving abroad. There is too much at stake for them.

Point 4: Few, very few, voluntarily leave their home country to adventure blindly somewhere else. I tell you, if they could, they would never leave their home -- Brazilians or not.

So my guess, is that one of the easiest way to balance the immigration flow is to promote, to develop the necessary conditions in some one's land to stay there, plans and have a future there, find work, security, peace to live. That could be accomplished with a better income distribution, real and balanced free trade conditiopns instead of charitable aid to poor nations or developing countries (Trade not Aid).

Want to keep the balance? Then the balance needs to be implanted in a global scale with no boundaries at all, no strings attached....You would be surprised with the results. But you would have to have first an open mind and view of the future.

Want to receive? Then give! The hands of those who give are always full! This is not cheap philosophy...this is life pure ans simple.

As Einstein once said something that goes like that: "The more complex the problem, the simplest is the solution." Have a nice day.

MIRIAM
APESAR DE LER EN INGLES COM DIFICULDAD GOSTEI MUCHO DE SU ARTICULO.
TEM NEXUS COM QUE ESQUEVES EN O GLOBO TODOS LOS DIAS.

Míriam, confesso que não gostei da tradução ao 'pé da letra ".Mas, afinal, voce se expressou muito bem sobre a nossa realidade.Mas está ficando difícel os nossos irmãos brasileiros entrarem ilegalmente no méxico e eua. Se estivessemos uma economia mais planejada, essa migração estaria se deslocando para os eixos norte, nordeste e centro oeste do país.Basta explorar as nossas riquezas naturais. O nosso povoamento por km2 ainda é muito grande no eixo sul/sudeste, prejudicando o desenvolvimento integrado do nosso país.A migração para o japão ainda é justificavel, porque são descendentes da própria raça. Esses 30 bilhões que US$ que recebemos a cada ano não justificam a nossa incompetencia de gerir as nossas grandes riquezas que a natureza nos proporciona. Temos a maior área agricultável do mundo, que precisa de água e alimentos para sobreviver. Temos que transformar essas riquezas em instrumentos capazes de acabar com as desigiualdades sociais e aconomicas. Não basta somente ser grande, mas ter a capacidade de transformar essa grandeza em riuquezas usufruidas por toda a nossa população. Parabens pelo tema, Miriam

It's a really interesting article, written by a Brazilian journalist. As so, we can't ask Americans to understand it as Brazilians do.

As news media show, it's more hope than prejudice. But also a lot of work. Many people would say that those immigrants "steal" jobs from native Americans, but we know that almost all those jobs are not wanted by the American ones.

And when a Brazilian (or any other immigrant) shows his willing to send money to his family, people claim about it. But immigrants generate much more ealth where they work and live rather than where they send money to.

As Global economy, both USA and Brazil are disposed to receive people from other lands to work in there. That's natural, and there's no way back.

PS -- I too have faced the dilemma of being a "stranger in a strange land" -- except it's my own land, the land I was born in and where my parents are buried -- California, currently being made unrecognizable, even to the point of having the language change right out from under us native-born people, by massive uncontrolled illegal immigration from Latin America.

Unfortunately, dear Miriam, this Post Global blog/site seems to be widely read by US citizens and therefore they tend to know only one side of the coin.

Well, Cristina, Newsweek IS an American publication -- fancy Americans reading a blog site maintained by an American publication! The nerve of those perfidious Yankees!

You sound like a pretty "insulated" person yourself if you're shocked that Americans read an American news site. Let me guess, you're an illegal immigrant to the US and you just can't understand why we want to enforce our own immigraton laws?

Don't like immigrants? Think they are expensive and so on? Easy! Start working to make USA work at full speed and competitively as it does today without them!

We don't like ILLEGAL immigrants. And yes, there are many opportunities for mechanizing, especially in the agricultural sector, that we don't take because of abundant cheap labor. That's going to change very soon.

Hi America,

Don't like immigrants? Think they are expensive and so on? Easy! Start working to make USA work at full speed and competitively as it does today without them!

If you can imagine this huge nation working non-stop without the arms and the brain of many foreigners, them I bow out to you forever! And promise never more speak a word for the rest of my life! I am dead serious.

To Miriam Leitao:

A fine article...I like the closure in particular. Unfortunately, dear Miriam, this Post Global blog/site seems to be widely read by US citizens and therefore they tend to know only one side of the coin.

We can talk about and understand pain, hope, prejudice and "guts" only when we have experienced this. Then we know.
Otherwise, it is impossible to grasp what this issue means in one's life, for one's life.

Unfortunately, the US citizens are getting more and more insulated in their own geographical space, in their own truth, beliefs, news and what is worst: in times and ways of life of a golden past that does not and will not repeat itself as before. "Flint is gone!"

That is why I liked your article, in particular when it comes to its closure. Brazil has experienced both sides of this coin .I guess, more that the US itself or any other country, Brazilians have an authoritative word on this issue.

Immigration and emigration is about what you said: hope and prejudice. I would add understanding of life, learned lessons, getting better as a human being.

Congrats for this article. You got to the point!

Wall Street takes jobs from Americans in mergers and sends them overseas and gives themselves bonuses for doing so. Does WS hire non-Americans because its easier to get non-Americans to do that work? Isn't what WS does inherently disloyal to Americans? Does HBS trains students like Bush to betray us for a buck still, American or not?

Many HBS profs are from overseas as well. Is it easier for them to teach outsourcing, H-1B, downsizing, cutting benefits, merger and layoff for profit and extreme greed? At least the ones from overseas don't betray the people they went to high school with.

http://www.cbpp.org/7-10-06inc.htm

The above link shows that the top 1 percent of households get 20 percent of income today, 10 percent before he 1965 Immigration Act, and 20 percent before the 1924 Immigration restriction.

Dear Mr. Rational Man,

Pedro's family is there because no American wants to work in the condition that he does making what he makes. I guess you neither.

The US complains of working human conditions abroad because those conditions are hurting the conditions of guys like you in the US.

Given the choice of hiring Pedro, a Chinese or you I guess my choices would be Pedro (if in the US), a Chinese (if I can tranfer the job to China) and the last you.

Given what you have written I think you are too expensive for what you are worth.

I guess if Pedro has a better condition of living he will work more than you. Pedro has a hell of a guts my dear.

BTW, I am a Pedro who got a PhD and works in WS (yes, Wall Street) ...

Here is an example: Pedro works hard for a home builder 10 hrs a day, for 6 dollars an hour, and of course no healthcare provided by the employer. He ends up with $300 a week, 1200 a month cash. He pays no income taxes. Pedros wife and 4 kids also have immigrated with him, his kids are ages 1, 3,4, and 6. His wife stays at home with the youngest and has no job. His other 3 kids go to public taxpayer funded school. It costs $7000 per child per year to attend public school. Pedros wife had 2 of her kids in US hospitals, at a cost of $15,000 each which taxpayers paid. Pedro pays $1000 a month for his 3 bedroom rental house, and $200 a month in utility bill costs. Pedro has no money left for food, medical, or entertainment. His family gets 500 a month in food stamps, and on average goes to the health clinic 2 times a month, at a cost of $500 each time. Lets see what benefit Pedros family provides to the United States, and we can see why we shoudl welcome them.

-30,000 for two births
-280,000 for4 kids at 7000 per year for 10 yrs of public school
-25,000 for 10 years of visiting the helth clinic for his family
-60,000 for food stamps for 10 years

Total average cost of a mexican immigrant family = $395,000

3.5 million immigrant families in the USA = 1,481,250,000,000

divide this by 270 million legal US residents like you and I, and we pay $5,486 dollars a year each to support them

Pedro pays no taxes because eh doesnt make enough money and his full pay is in cash

Pedros family has no extra money for entertainment, so his kids are tempted to steal and sell drugs

I will do the same work pedro does, but i will need $18 dollars an hour so i will not need to mooch as pedro does

do we need pedros family?

When population reaches its maximum, or is no longer increasing, then immigrants substitute for births. If the population is not increasing, then any immigration implies that births are below replacement. Sustained births below replacement implies genetic survival ratios that asymptote to zero.

http://oldatlanticlighthouse.blogspot.com/2006/08/unpleasant-immigration-arithmetic.html

Is Turkish immigration into Kurdish regions part of genocide and racism? But Turkish immigratio into Europe is not?

Is it racist to support Turkish immigration into Kurdish regions but racist to oppose it into Europe?

What about the same questions in regards to Serbia, Bosnia etc? Is Serb immigration into certain areas in the Balkans genocide and supporting it is racism? But the same immigration into England or Germany is not and opposing it is racism?

What if its part of a larger immigration that is accompanied by birth rates below replacement in England or Germany? Is it ethnic cleansing when it happens in the Balkans, but racism when its opposed in Germany and England?

Must we go to war when it happens in the Balkans but put those in jail who oppose it in England and Germany? Or at least condemn them, boycott them and not hire them? Isn't that what right thinking people do?

Is English an ethnic group? Is Pakistani an ethnic group for purposes of discrimination law, but English is not? What about Welsh, Irish, Scots? Only in countries or legal jurisdictions other than those? Can you be sued for discriminating against English as an ethnic group in Scotland but charged with racism for saying English is an ethnic group in England? Even though both are under UK law?

Is it an element of genocide to say that Kurds are not an ethnic group in their homeland? Because that would be part of eradicating them? Is it racism to say that English are an ethnic group in England?

Is it genocide to say Kurds are not an ethnic group in their homeland because the intent is ethnic cleansing? But its racism to say English is an ethnic group in England because the intent would be to stop immigration?

Are the PC responsible for their actions? For their words? For their concepts? For results? For the present? For the future?