Rio de Janeiro, Brazil - The best-case scenario for Iraq is to become Vietnam today: united and fast-growing with thorough market-oriented reforms. Unfortunately, the more likely scenario is that in 10 years Iraq will be split into regions controlled by rival groups embroiled in irrational violence that will ruin their lives, resources, and their future.
In 2017, it will be clear that Bush's surge was ineffective. With 3,000 young American soldiers and billions of dollars lost, the situation will only be aggravated.
But enough of this talk. Let's imagine how prosperous Iraq's future could be if, by some miracle, internal divisions disappear, war ends, and oil export limitations are lifted. Iraq sits on the third largest proven oil reserves in the world. With this asset, in ten years it could produce more than 3.6 billion barrels of oil per day, as forecasted by the International Energy Outlook. This is one million more barrels per day than current production. With peace -- which the country has never had -- and high investment, Iraq could be one of the most important, solid, and reliable oil suppliers to the world.
Vietnam has a net export of 110 thousand barrels of oil a day, far less than Iraq's, but Vietnam has taken full advantage of this trade. The country has also been grabbing up many global opportunities through its economic reforms. The World Bank reports that the country has succeeded in maintaining high GNP growth for 20 years while reducing poverty. Vietnam is also following a ten-year educational program to improve attendance at all levels of schooling.
If Iraq could have time and peace to undertake this kind of long-term planning -- improving education and its economic structures -- it could have a bright future. But Iraq's first priority is simply to survive as an independent and united country. And even this seems to be a challenge that is unlikely to be met.
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