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Hungary has always been a destination for immigrants. After World War II, a weird thing happened -- most of our immigrants turned out to be Hungarians. This was because at that time Hungary lost the bigger part of its territory with the Trianon Peace Treaty. Many Hungarians from behind the new frontiers came back to their country.
This is the 40th piece I have written for PostGlobal, so to celebrate my own small anniversary, I am happy to discuss the Old Continent. We Hungarians have had a difficult time placing ourselves within Europe, particularly joining the European Union – a club originally formed by so-called “Western” states. Hungary spent much of the last century in the “Eastern Bloc” – the Soviet hemisphere, which is no more.
It always matters (a bit) who the elected politicians are, as they have the power to shape the future of any country. The problem is that their capabilities are limited because of two obstacles. The first is the limited number of years they can rule. It is hard to find a politician who would bother to act on trends that cannot be changed successfully within his/her 4-5 year term.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I understand that theoretically, the noted PostGlobal panelists know absolutely everything. Still, I must lift my hands and tell you: I haven’t the faintest idea why the financial markets are falling, and why they’re falling so sharply. From the position from which I am able to observe the financial markets, it seems that no rules govern the markets whatsoever, at least none that the trends seem to comply with. But maybe the only rules that can hold up are so complex that I severely lack the knowledge to understand what’s going on.
The Current Discussion:The global economy is quaking. Are we heading toward a global recession? Who's to blame?
Let’s be a little prudent with our prophecies. Most of them seem to be ridiculous after a bit of time has passed. Just one example: a leader of the Patent Office of a great country (guess which one?) said in 1900(!) that there was no need for his office any more since everything had already been discovered.
Unfortunately, economists have to calculate the future with every possible tool of their science—that is the one of the points of their profession. There have been some great economists who had quite a knack for foretelling the imminent changes of the economic processes. They can be regarded as the prophets of our age. Obviously, I don’t belong to this noted group, holding a simple law degree. But at the same time, as an author of fiction novels, my job is still related in an enigmatic way to guessing the future. So I’ll summon my courage and give an answer to this question.
Budapest -- Hungary (Eastern Europe) is a member of the EU. Thus, its agriculture is tied to the subsidies handed over by the relevant institutions of the community. Each year our farmers and food processing companies believe that this has been the worst year ever. And, every year has seemed to be the worst year ever. Still, I think Hungary is quite well off when it comes to eating and drinking. In this area, the last famine was in the mid-war period.
Living in a relatively well fed part of the world, I can have an opinion about the subject of food shortages even if it is a result of looking around on this globe with relatively open eyes, ears and mind. I think the job of feeding every human being in the world these days is as serious a problem as global warming, and I cannot understand why experts and politicians talk much less about it.
The so-called civilized countries with the over packed malls, food stores and fast food restaurant chains should make up their mind and send some of their surplus to the needy before they would come over to get it.
I would not be surprised if the hungry people of Africa would show up in huge crowds in Spain or Italy or Greece. Traveling on handmade ships and rafts, it could not be an impossible endeavor to cross the Adriatic Sea. Similarly, the Chinese could start to wander northward, and I know that some mountains may be an obstacle, but still, there are good climbers and guides over there, not to mention the skilled sherpas.
This problem has a great impact on every region in the world, and in the future will have an even greater impact. I know it is ridiculous to hope that the UN or any other international organization can solve the enormous inequality in eating and drinking. But all the nations where most citizens are able to eat enough should unite on the food front to do something. Today's food riots may otherwise seem to be minor upheavals compared what we will have to cope with quite soon.
Until my words are heard by those who have the power to act, I think I'll go on a serious diet, just to feel myself a little bit better.
The Current Discussion: Does the crisis on Wall Street mean that the American style of capitalism is no longer the model for the world?
Here in Hungary, modern capitalism began in 1990. An earlier capitalist period in the early 20th century ended when the Soviet Union forcibly introduced socialism.
American-style capitalism was not a useful model during that first period; what we had was closer to slightly industrialized feudalism. After all, America was really far away, across a continent and then an ocean; how could we aspire to its ideals? When the modern period began the American style was no model, either; the country was too poor to even hope to achieve a similar kind of success. Now, believe it or not, the gap between our two economic system is even wider.
For small banks in other parts of the world, news of Wall Street companies in crisis inspires more of a feeling of gloating. Small banks and other financial institutions live in a permanent danger of insolvency or bankruptcy; to see the big ones in trouble is a comforting sensation.
It's not the American model of capitalism that we envy here; it's American democracy. That's the model to which our young and fragile democracy should aspire.
BUDAPEST -- The nature of the universe is diverse and hard to understand. Still, it is a piece of cake compared to the nature of the global economy.
People who have not read Keynes and Greenspan would believe the free market economy follows a few basic rules that are easy to explain. Yeah, even I (with a modest law degree) can explain them. But explaining is much easier than understanding. The way I'm looking at it, the market economy still works and regulates itself without the help or intervention of the state, God or the Union of the Rich.
Unfortunately, the institutions of huge banks, omnipotent stock exchanges and enormous hedge funds work against the natural rules of the free market economy. Asl they rule over much bigger bodies of money than any Administration, they can turn everything upside down.
In my opinion, the poorer and richer countries in the world will be hit the least. A rich man's household has enough reserve. A beggar cannot lose much. It may sound cynical, but it still can be true. Seemingly, then, the "middle class" of the nations are the outstanding losers of the current situation -- the countries that hoped to emerge from the middle of the crowd toward the forth, third rows. Accordingly, I am convinced that Eastern Europe is the region that could lose its stability -- if it had any of such thing. Naturally, everyone is worried that his region will sink, and his family will hurt the must. And, still, please, believe me, I would have the same opinion even if I were Chinese or Filipino.
Here are some kind suggestions for the governments in Eastern Europe. One, they should find a way to co-operate with every power of the opposition to work together. Two, they should find a way to work together with the governments of the neighboring countries and of Western Europe, including the EU Administration. Three, they should help their citizens at least as much as they are ready to bail out their banks and other financial institutions.
Here is a bonus idea. Each politician and party should be much more patient than they used to be. Every cloud has a silver lining, and every depression has an ending. It is true that in the meantime elections should totally change any given government, but nobody has ever said that the job of a Minister, a Prime Minister or a President could last forever.
If it is true that the richer and poorer countries are relatively less endangered, then two other conclusions concerning those countries are obvious.
One, you cannot expect help from the poor and needy. They need help. Even if their problem is not the global recession -- surely, the citizens of a poor African nation are less worried about the low prices of real estate or the fall of their Dow Jones than are their richer counterparts -- their problem is starvation.
So, it is only the richest nations and the richest people in the world who should try to help all rest of the world. Compassion is nice, but some fast financial help would be more appreciated by peoples living on the same globe.
Now this is the best possible question to send me. You may not be aware of the fact, but in Hungary everybody knows that I am the Good News Man: The one who is in charge of finding the silver lining in all of the clouds. Let me show you how it works. I have a double dose of good news for the world and also for my home country.
The Current Discussion: The mood at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year was decidedly gloomy, which seems a fair reflection of economic conditions. Let's look forward: tell us what the bright spots might be in the world economy this time next year.
"Gloomy" sounds better than "dark" or "hopeless." In my opinion, the world economy, even if it is in chaotic condition, is still functioning; the problem is that the world morality is extinct. In that sense, we have a chicken-and-egg dilemma: banks and financial institutions do not trust people; people do not trust them, either. Government does not trust people; people do not trust government, either. Certain countries do not trust other countries; naturally, those countries stop trusting them back. People don't trust other people... you get the idea.
Re-creating that kind of trust, even on a small scale, would be a bright spot indeed. Then, people having problems with their monthly payments would go to the banks and related offices first. I think any banker and clerk would appreciate such a gesture. Someone who cannot pay now but is ready to do everything to set himself aright is a better client and citizen than those who simply do not care.
All in all, confidence is a more precious currency than the Euro, dollar, or yen. It has a much higher value than gold or platinum. The best possible news would be that we can produce this "currency" by improving our personal and societal character. People of the world, why don't we give it a try? What do we have to lose?
The Current Discussion: The U.S. will lift travel restrictions on Cuba, but leave the larger trade embargo in place. Is that a smart move? Does it go far enough? Too far?
ALL trade restrictions and embargoes are ridiculous, as is the belief that they can weaken a state or a country. Such actions add further misery to the lives of Cubans (and other poor people in question in the world), but won't hurt their governments and politicians. Embargoes are simply good pretexts for a country's leaders to increase military spending.
If the U.S. is really interested in establishing democratic institutions in Cuba and elsewhere, forget the restrictions and the embargoes right away. And, let the people - any people - visit their relatives and come and go as they like.
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