The Current Discussion:The global economy is quaking. Are we heading toward a global recession? Who's to blame?
Let’s be a little prudent with our prophecies. Most of them seem to be ridiculous after a bit of time has passed. Just one example: a leader of the Patent Office of a great country (guess which one?) said in 1900(!) that there was no need for his office any more since everything had already been discovered.
Unfortunately, economists have to calculate the future with every possible tool of their science—that is the one of the points of their profession. There have been some great economists who had quite a knack for foretelling the imminent changes of the economic processes. They can be regarded as the prophets of our age. Obviously, I don’t belong to this noted group, holding a simple law degree. But at the same time, as an author of fiction novels, my job is still related in an enigmatic way to guessing the future. So I’ll summon my courage and give an answer to this question.
Recession in the twenty-first century is not a cup of tea, and doesn’t remind me of recessions in earlier times. The economies of different countries are more colorful, and their tendencies are quite different than before. When the Great Depression and the Stock Market Crash (1929) hit the world, it was basically a series of bankruptcies in only a handful of big and important stock exchange centers. But in those years there were only a few of those big and important stock exchanges. Our world now is more divided, and there are a dozen economic centers (at least.) More and more of them are located outside the U.S. and the so-called civilized world of the old continent. A global recession means chaos and insolvency everywhere. I try to follow what’s going on from Budapest, the capital of a small country whose economy is unimportant in global terms. From here, for me, it seems that while the actual economic numbers in the European and North American capitals are gloomy, in Asia and elsewhere they are still good.
Considering the U.S. or the European Community as “the” world is a rather out-of-date concept. Maybe what we’re experiencing is a simple economic power shift between countries and continents. If this were the case, the leaders of the countries on the losing side should show their mettle and try to do something (many things) to catch on. Crying over the possibility of a recession doesn’t help. The question is what in the name of God will help? I wish I knew.
I only know what I would do if I were in the saddle. I would follow without a moment of hesitation of the wise advices of John Maynard Keynes (English economist, 1893—1946). When the economy is headed downhill, the administration should build schools, bridges, roads, etc. These state-run investments create jobs, accelerate spending and taxes, and thus boost the economy. Moreover, we will have those new schools, bridges, roads, etc. On the other hand, I would stop the state-run waste of billions of dollars. I would not finance the defense plans outside my country. I would also close quite a few of the countless offices and agencies of the state, or strongly reduce their yearly budgets.
I know that the advice of a novelist will not be taken seriously by very many people, even if they are based on the thoughts of a famous economist. Of course, if Keynes were alive and said the same, his advice wouldn’t be accepted either, not by those who have the power to decide since they are sitting in the offices of power. Then, what can be said? What can be done? Pray, maybe. God (any God) has no interest in wasting, and doesn’t need to be elected or reelected. Amen.
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