The Current Discussion:The global economy is quaking. Are we heading toward a global recession? Who's to blame?

Let’s be a little prudent with our prophecies. Most of them seem to be ridiculous after a bit of time has passed. Just one example: a leader of the Patent Office of a great country (guess which one?) said in 1900(!) that there was no need for his office any more since everything had already been discovered.

Unfortunately, economists have to calculate the future with every possible tool of their science—that is the one of the points of their profession. There have been some great economists who had quite a knack for foretelling the imminent changes of the economic processes. They can be regarded as the prophets of our age. Obviously, I don’t belong to this noted group, holding a simple law degree. But at the same time, as an author of fiction novels, my job is still related in an enigmatic way to guessing the future. So I’ll summon my courage and give an answer to this question.

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