What a strange concept, to picture any country holding tangible high-value “cards.” If there was a deck, the United States – the strongest country in the world – would hold most of them. Yet the U.S. still proves unable to really solve anything.
I would put the situation this way: Russia has some oil, and Iran is probably seeking to build some weapons. And when it comes down to the big players in the game of global power, these things don’t buy them much.
My country, Hungary, has been invaded and occupied by the Tartars, the Turks, the Austrians and – yes – the Russians (Soviets at the time). Yet I don’t find much cause to feel afraid of the Russians today. In my opinion, governments of superpowers often exaggerate the threats they face, utilizing fear as support for whatever foreign policies they want to pursue. The speeches of politicians are often more frightening than reality.
We can never be certain whether one country will attack another. Nevertheless, I do believe that neither Iran nor Russia poses a serious threat to the Western hemisphere. They each want their modest place at the table when others shuffle the cards. The best strategy would be to let them play. If you invite others who want more from you than you need from them, you may be able to manipulate them, controlling the rules of the game.
One should always seek to understand one’s adversaries. As a novelist, I strongly suggest reading Russian and Iranian literature. Reading may not be able to save the world, but it can be part of increased engagement with foreign entities. We cannot hide from each other in this globalized world; we can only try to work with each other more effectively. And knowledge is the best weapon against fear.
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