Visit Ikebukuro or Shibuya, Tokyo's famous nightspots where one can find on sleazy streets many Iranian social misfits whose dreams are not realized under the current regime. Tens of thousands of Iranians take new homes in Japan while millions of others live in the US, Germany, or elsewhere. My colleague in Tehran told me that many young girls are desperate to marry men living in Europe or Japan, while able men seek better opportunities abroad. Nearly thirty years after the Revolution, their leaders are unable to deliver either an attractive social system or promising ideas.

Throughout its history since the Islamic Conquest, Persian people have maintained their presence in the East. Ethnic Persians thrive in Central Asia, but Arabs and Turks have kept them at bay to the west. Given their minority status as Shiites among Muslims, Iran needs more than military power to penetrate the entire Middle East. Lots of émigrés are the clearest indication that it has none of it.

Alarmists might state the worst scenario: Iran may acquire nuclear bombs, threaten neighbors, and use its clients in Iraq and other places to eventually become dominant in the region. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have been extremely lucky so far, but he will not be lucky enough to pass through so many difficult stages unhindered by the international community. His chances are as slim as those of our national soccer squad taking home the World Cup trophy by beating the Brazilians -- twice.