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Masha Lipman is always thoughtful, and puts her finger on two likely future problems.

One is the transition from Communism to something else. In the absence of private property rights for people at the bottom there is a very good chance that Russia's experience with "top-down" liberalization could be replicated, which would create great disillusion and a strong negative reaction. Successful liberalization is more likely if it is done "bottom-up" -- which does not mean dismantling the state or all government policies, but must mean allowing Cubans living in houses and using property to call them their own. Unfortunately as there are if anything more committed Communists in Cuba today than there were fifteen years ago in Russia this course is not likely to commend itself to the men who will follow Castro.

The other problem is the danger that the Bush administration will combine hyper-responsiveness to the influential Cuban exile community with its boilerplate rhetoric about democracy in a policy that neglects American interests in pursuit of a wished-for future for Cuba. In reality any post-Castro regime is likely to produce changes than American policy must prepare for, in areas from trade to immigration to law enforcement. Our efforts would be better focused on figuring out how to respond to these changes rather than on dreams of liberation.

These quotes sum up precisely why the U.S is so reviled around the World:

"The competition over Cuba is going to be tough."

"Now the stakes for the U.S. in general and the Cuban exile community in the U.S. are extremely high."

No mention of the interests of Cubans who actually care enough about their country to live in it.

Cuba is not a prize in some game. It is home to a People. A People who have no need of instruction from citizens of a Nation that tried to invade them and murder their leader, and which has spread terror across Asia, South America and the Middle East for the past fifty years in pursuit of ever more power and profit.

U.S. policies and actions toward Cuba over the last 25 years have hardly endeared the U.S. to Cuba, or to anyone else for that matter.

What Cuban leader would want to talk to a country whose president is arrogant, presumptious, deceitful and self-absorbed?

Where's Henry Cisneros when we need him?

JS, San Antonio, Tx

Bottom line Raul Castro doesn't like Chavez so, this transition is going to be very interesting...
http://ihatecastro.blogspot.com/