The competition over Cuba is going to be tough. For way over four decades one U.S. administration after another has tried to force a transition in Cuba, but achieved nothing. The U.S. repeatedly tried to get rid of Castro, politically and physically. It welcomed Cuban emigrants (the Central Intelligence Agency even recruited them). The U.S. maintained an economic embargo on Cuba and sought to win over Cuban souls by anti-Communist broadcasting to the country. But Castro survived attempts on his life, and his country held on in spite of the U.S. effort.

Now the stakes for the U.S. in general and the Cuban exile community in the U.S. are extremely high. Chavez's stake in Cuba may not be as long-term or emotionally-charged as that of the U.S., but lately he's invested a lot in Cuba. Venezuela supplies Cuba with cheap oil and is Cuba's leading trade partner. Since the discovery of promising oil and gas reserves in the North Cuba Basin in 2004 Venezuela has been very active - not unsuccessfully - in participating in the exploration of those reserves. Chavez is there already while the U.S. has to decide whether the embargo on Cuba is still a good policy.

Whoever will be Cuba's leader after Fidel, whether it be his brother Raul or somebody else from Castro's elite, or whether it be several people at once, they will have to deal with high expectations on the part of Cubans. Castro's unique charisma and status made it possible for him to keep his countrymen peaceful in spite of economic hardship and shortages. Nobody else will be able to ensure this peace any longer. The post-Castro government will have to make generous promises while deliveries are bound to be scarce. In the meantime an array of forces will intensify their effort to push Cuba to a transitional path of their choice. These forces include others in the Cuban elite, Cuban dissidents and democratic reformers, Cuban exiles in the U.S., foreign actors, such as the U.S. government, and of course, Hugo Chavez. In the meantime, immense Cuban problems require a highly committed and cohesive government to launch and implement reforms.

Over the years, with every commodity in shortage the black market has become more entrenched in every day life. And contrary to what one may think, a black-market economy is not a good training ground for a market economy. It may teach people how to make a profit, but it also leads to deep criminalization of economic relations. A transition from a black market to fair rules for all is a hard and long road to follow. In a situation of transition and uncertainty, criminal groups can easily gain a lot of authority.

Democracy and a market economy may sound like an attractive option, especially since Cuban exiles in the U.S. are an excellent example of how beneficial this choice can be. But if Cuba departs on a democratic transition the problem will be whether Cubans will have the perseverance needed to live through the hard early years. What helped Central European countries and Baltic States during that transitional period was the belief that they had been liberated from an oppressive and alien outside force. Cuba will not have that going for them. Their communism was their own choice, genuine and unimposed.

Speaking from the height, or shall I say the depth, of Russia's experience I can say that lingering public attitudes are a key obstacle to democratic and market transition. Paternalistic regimes make people unwilling to take initiative, make them expect benefits from the state and make them blame their hard situations on anyone but themselves. Egalitarianism, even if hypocritical, has its attraction -- especially as an old lifestyle collapses and frustration and confusion sets in. People seek relief in a nostalgia for the "time-before-change."

The Cuban exile community may be of great help to the country with its professional skills and business and political connections in the U.S. Of course money will be useful too, but will the exiles be able to show tolerance and restrain their urge to arrange things in Cuba in a way they see fit? They've waited for almost five decades after all!

Cuba will not be like East Germany which was taken over by a bigger, wealthier and more successful brother. Moreover, there are obvious differences in the exile community on U.S. policy with regard to Cuba. All U.S. administrations since the Cuban revolution in 1959 pursued the policy of embargoes and pressed for a regime change. The current administration of G.W. Bush has proclaimed democratization as its global mission, and as the developments in Iraq show, has implemented it with full disregard for the situation on the ground or human nature in general. This leaves little chance that Bush administration will show flexibility or understanding as far as the situation and peoples' attitudes in Cuba are concerned. Caleb McCarry, a "Cuba transition coordinator" appointed to this position a couple years ago was recently quoted in The New Yorker as saying that his "function is to be... in charge of planning and supporting a genuine democratic transition in Cuba." McCarry added, "We will continue to offer support for a real transition."

If those in charge of Cuban policy in the U.S. share this thinking then there is little hope that the U.S. will act in a subtle and wise fashion as the situation in Cuba requires. According to The New Yorker, two leading Cuban dissidents characterized the tactic outlined by McCarry as "meddling", "counterproductive", and "heavy-handed.

All the above factors make Cubans more responsive to a figure such as Chavez and to his boisterous populism. To be fair, not everybody in Cuba either among the elites or among the people will be happy to have a Chavez for a mentor or patron. Moreover, it is not at all clear whether Cuba might indeed opt soon for a democratic path in a situation where Chavez would become a challenger to Cuba's developments. Alternatively, he may be more successful in early stages of post-Castro Cuba with the U.S. as the challenger to his popularity. It is also possible that both these actors remain outsiders for a time while Cuba remains under some sort of post-Castro authoritarian of its own making. Nevertheless, the their competition for control will be severe.