The Current Discussion:Seymour Hersh reports a $400 million U.S. covert action program against Iran. On a scale of 1 to 10, what's the likelihood of an American or Israeli military attack on Iran before Jan. 20 (Inauguration Day), and why? For extra points, name the date.

I can think of three reasons why George W. Bush will not attack Iran.

The first reason is the economy. With gas prices breaking records in the United States, the economy is bound to be the main issue facing the American electorate in November (with the exception of a terrorist attack happening soon, of course). Just last week, when markets heard of the supposed Israeli preparations for an attack against Iran, oil prices immediately went up an additional four dollars per barrel. Can the Bush administration really afford to send the world into an even deeper energy-related crisis? I doubt it.

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