While it is good that the U.S. is opting -- for the time being at least -- for talks rather than war with Iran, it is unlikely that a democratic and independent future for Iraq will be on the agenda.
It is a meeting of two sides -- one a super power and the other a regional power -- who have reached a standoff in their struggle for influence in Iraq. The fact that talks are taking place is an indication that the U.S. is unable to defeat the growing Iranian influence in the war-torn country.
Iran, on the other hand, is wary of American attempts to build a Sunni axis against it. Tehran wants to consolidate its gains in Iraq; in effect that means consolidating the gains of the Shia community’s religious and political power in Iraq.
In the immediate future, Tehran is worried that the U.S. could gain the Arab governments’ direct and full backing of an attempt led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi to topple the current Shia sectarian government. Allawi, a secular Shia and American ally, is marketed in the Arab World as the only alternative to the expansion of "sectarian Shia influence" and consequently that of Tehran in the region.
It is no secret that several Arab governments have been pondering supporting Allawi's efforts to form an alliance to bring down the Iraqi government. The so-called Sunni Arab axis has failed so far in limiting Iranian influence, but it did send a signal to Tehran that support from neighboring Arab countries and even the United Arab Emirates could succeed in bringing down the Iraqi government.
Meanwhile, while Washington has succeeded in making "the Iran threat" the focus of Arab government policies, there is not much support for a war against Iran.
It is difficult to simply have a wish list of what should be on the agenda of the next round of talks -- a really concern for a future and independence Iraq. The two countries are meeting more to divide their spheres of influence than to address the urgent need for serious talks to support an independent Iraq.
If the Iraqi parliament passes the pending oil law, the U.S. would secure Iraqi oil for exploitation by American, and to a lesser extent other Western, companies for decides to come. Iran, itself, is also eager for economic benefits, attempting to secure a large share of the Iraqi market for its own companies, construction and other industries in Iraq.
Iran wants the Americans out of Iraq -- but not before consolidating what it sees as Shia gains, which ironically require America’s continued presence.
It is an equation that, in the near future, does not bode well for a free Iraq.
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